King in a maverick style.(17/431)

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Some thoughts on ICPD+5.(18/431)

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Using problem structuring methods in strategic planning. (19/431)

In this paper we present approaches to problem structuring that have been employed to derive planning guidelines as part of a comprehensive strategic planning process. The approaches were developed for use in the context of a developing country, where quantitative data is particularly scarce. They rely heavily upon the informed judgement of technical planning officers. We discuss ways of ensuring that the approach remains flexible and participative.  (+info)

Some ethical issues at the population level raised by 'soft' eugenics, euphenics, and isogenics. (20/431)

It is argued that at the population level there are three central genetic developments raising ethical issues. The first is the emergence of 'soft' eugenics, due primarily to the increasing ability to detect carriers of genetic diseases, to monitor their pregnancies, and to provide the option to abort a fetus predisposed to major genetic disease. The second development is the recognition of the extent to which many serious diseases of adult life are due to a disturbance of ancient genetic homeostatic mechanisms due to changing life style, raising the question of whether a society that increasingly pays the medical bills should attempt to impose healthier standards of living on its members. Such an attempt at 'euphenics' may be thought of as the antithesis to eugenics. The third development relates to recognition of the need to regulate the size of the earth's population to numbers that can be indefinitely sustained; this regulation in a fashion (isogenic) that will preserve existing genetic diversity.  (+info)

Progressing from eugenics to human genetics. celebrating the 70th birthday of professor Newton E. Morton. (21/431)

Eugenics, unlike science, involves decision making on various issues, and decision making involves the risk of making errors. This communication first clarifies the nature and seriousness of making errors known as type II in the statistical literature, i.e. the error of punishing a person when he is not guilty of the crime attributed to him. Eugenic laws in China and the eugenic movements in England and the United States are briefly reviewed. The explosive advances made in medical and population genetics in the last 40 years are replacing the conventional eugenics programs by new approaches. Modern genetic counseling has been introduced as the intermediate agent between the scientist and the family that needs advice. It is stressed that individual rights must be respected under all circumstances.  (+info)

Detecting population expansion and decline using microsatellites. (22/431)

This article considers a demographic model where a population varies in size either linearly or exponentially. The genealogical history of microsatellite data sampled from this population can be described using coalescent theory. A method is presented whereby the posterior probability distribution of the genealogical and demographic parameters can be estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The likelihood surface for the demographic parameters is complicated and its general features are described. The method is then applied to published microsatellite data from two populations. Data from the northern hairy-nosed wombat show strong evidence of decline. Data from European humans show weak evidence of expansion.  (+info)

Trends in world population: how will the millenium compare with the past? (23/431)

This paper reviews historical and projected trends in world population numbers, and the underlying determinants of those trends. Whereas the world's population has shown little change over most of its one million-year history, the past 200 years have witnessed dramatic changes in fertility, mortality and population growth rates. Recent decades, in particular, have seen unprecedented demographic events, with more people added to the world's population in the past 50 years than in the preceding million. The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS, selective as it is to young adults and infants, is also unprecedented, with life expectancy among some populations reduced by almost 20 years. As we approach the end of the 20th century, further demographic changes are underway with, for the first time in recent human history, a slowing down of world population growth. Nonetheless, world population is projected to grow from 6 billion currently to about 9.4 billion by 2050 (medium fertility assumption), with ageing emerging as the most pressing demographic issue facing humanity in the millenium.  (+info)

Human population expansion and microsatellite variation. (24/431)

Polymorphisms at di-, tri-, and tetranucleotide microsatellite loci have been analyzed in 14 worldwide populations. A statistical index of population expansion, denoted S(k), is introduced to detect historical changes in population size using the variation at the microsatellites. The index takes the value 0 at equilibrium with constant population size and is positive or negative according to whether the population is expanding or contracting, respectively. The use of S(k) requires estimation of properties of the mutation distribution for which we use both family data of Dib et al. for dinucleotide loci and our population data on tri- and tetranucleotide loci. Statistical estimates of the expansion index, as well as their confidence intervals from bootstrap resampling, are provided. In addition, a dynamical analysis of S(k) is presented under various assumptions on population growth or decline. The studied populations are classified as having high, intermediate, or low values of S(k) and genetic variation, and we use these to interpret the data in terms of possible population dynamics. Observed values of S(k) for samples of di-, tri-, and tetranucleotide data are compatible with population expansion earlier than 60,000 years ago in Africa, Asia, and Europe if the initial population size before the expansion was on the order of 500. Larger initial population sizes force the lower bound for the time since expansion to be much earlier. We find it unlikely that bottlenecks occurred in Central African, East Asian, or European populations, and the estimated expansion times are rather similar for all of these populations. This analysis presented here suggests that modern human populations departed from Africa long before they began to expand in size. Subsequently, the major groups (the African, East Asian, and European groups) started to grow at approximately same time. Populations of South America and Oceania show almost no growth. The Mbuti population from Zaire appears to have experienced a bottleneck during its expansion.  (+info)