Stable stroke occurrence despite incidence reduction in an aging population: stroke trends in the danish monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease (MONICA) population.
(34/4953)
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: A stroke register was established at the Glostrup Population Studies in 1982 with the objective to monitor stroke occurrence in the population continuously during a 10-year period and contribute data to the WHO Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) Project. The purpose of the current analysis was to estimate temporal trends in stroke occurrence. METHODS: All stroke events in the study population were ascertained and validated according to standardized criteria outlined by the WHO MONICA Project. The study population comprised all subjects > or = 25 years of age. Stroke was defined by the clinical presentation. A total of 5262 stroke events in >2 million person-years were analyzed. Age-adjusted rates for first-ever stroke and for all stroke events were calculated and temporal trends estimated by means of Poisson regression. RESULTS: The overall annual stroke attack rate per 100,000 person-years in the age range > or = 25 years was 272 in men and 226 in women. Age-adjusted stroke attack rates decreased among men by 3.9% per year and by 4.1% among women. Age-adjusted stroke incidence rates declined by 2.9% in men and by 3. 1% in women. The trends were statistically significant in both sexes. However, the proportion of elderly people in the study population increased during the time period of the study. Hence the numbers of stroke victims in the population remained largely unaltered. CONCLUSIONS: Decreasing age-adjusted stroke incidence rates point to a reduction of stroke risk during the time period of the study. Cardiovascular prevention, in particular improved hypertension control, is believed to have contributed to the incidence reduction. However, the burden of stroke on the healthcare system did not substantially diminish. The gain likely achieved from reduction of preventable risk factors was almost counterbalanced by population aging. (+info)
Geographic patterns of mtDNA diversity in Europe.
(35/4953)
Genetic diversity in Europe has been interpreted as a reflection of phenomena occurring during the Paleolithic ( approximately 45,000 years before the present [BP]), Mesolithic ( approximately 18,000 years BP), and Neolithic ( approximately 10,000 years BP) periods. A crucial role of the Neolithic demographic transition is supported by the analysis of most nuclear loci, but the interpretation of mtDNA evidence is controversial. More than 2,600 sequences of the first hypervariable mitochondrial control region were analyzed for geographic patterns in samples from Europe, the Near East, and the Caucasus. Two autocorrelation statistics were used, one based on allele-frequency differences between samples and the other based on both sequence and frequency differences between alleles. In the global analysis, limited geographic patterning was observed, which could largely be attributed to a marked difference between the Saami and all other populations. The distribution of the zones of highest mitochondrial variation (genetic boundaries) confirmed that the Saami are sharply differentiated from an otherwise rather homogeneous set of European samples. However, an area of significant clinal variation was identified around the Mediterranean Sea (and not in the north), even though the differences between northern and southern populations were insignificant. Both a Paleolithic expansion and the Neolithic demic diffusion of farmers could have determined a longitudinal cline of mtDNA diversity. However, additional phenomena must be considered in both models, to account both for the north-south differences and for the greater geographic scope of clinical patterns at nuclear loci. Conversely, two predicted consequences of models of Mesolithic reexpansion from glacial refugia were not observed in the present study. (+info)
Rates, patterns, and effectiveness of evolution in multi-level situations.
(36/4953)
Evolution is a multi-level process. Both actual evidence and theoretical considerations suggest as a first generalization that evolution both at single levels and in series of increasingly complex levels decelerates with time. Additional evidence, the expected difference between rapid nonadaptive speciation in small populations and effective adaptation in large ones, and analysis of explosive evolution suggest further that effective adaptive evolution occurs primarily in large populations, and that segments of such evolution tend to begin slowly; accelerate, sometimes explosively; and then decelerate. The segments are irregular, and do not occur at regular intervals. However, the explosive evolution of a general adaptation pre-adapts to and is often followed by an explosive radiation of derivative lineages. This description seems to fit the origin and initial radiation of mammals, and the evolutionary history of man and man's cultures. (+info)
Selection for intermediate mortality and reproduction rates in a spatially structured population.
(37/4953)
How local interactions influence both population and evolutionary dynamics is currently a key topic in theoretical ecology. We use a 'well-mixed' analytical model and spatially explicit individual-based models to investigate a system where a population is subject to rare disturbance events. The disturbance can only propagate through regions of the population where the density of individuals is sufficiently high and individuals affected by the disturbance die shortly after. We find that populations where individuals are sessile often exhibit very different dynamic behaviour when compared to populations where individuals are mobile and spatially well mixed. When mutations are allowed which affect either offspring birth rates or mortality rates, the well-mixed populations always evolve to a state where a single disturbance event leads to extinction. Populations often persist substantially longer if individuals are sessile and they disperse their offspring locally. We also find that for sessile populations selection may favour short-lived individuals with limited offspring production. Population dynamics are found to be strongly influenced by the host characters that are evolving and the rate at which host variation is introduced into the system. (+info)
Population dynamical consequences of climate change for a small temperate songbird.
(38/4953)
Predicting the effects of an expected climatic change requires estimates and modeling of stochastic factors as well as density-dependent effects in the population dynamics. In a population of a small songbird, the dipper (Cinclus cinclus), environmental stochasticity and density dependence both influenced the population growth rate. About half of the environmental variance was explained by variation in mean winter temperature. Including these results in a stochastic model shows that an expected change in climate will strongly affect the dynamics of the population, leading to a nonlinear increase in the carrying capacity and in the expected mean population size. (+info)
Connectivity of marine populations: open or closed?
(39/4953)
Most marine populations are thought to be well connected via long-distance dispersal of larval stages. Eulerian and Lagrangian flow models, coupled with linear mortality estimates, were used to examine this assumption. The findings show that when simple advection models are used, larval exchange rates may be overestimated; such simplistic models fail to account for a decrease of up to nine orders of magnitude in larval concentrations resulting from diffusion and mortality. The alternative process of larval retention near local populations is shown to exist and may be of great importance in the maintenance of marine population structure and management of coastal marine resources. (+info)
Robustness of reserve selection procedures under temporal species turnover.
(40/4953)
Complementarity-based algorithms for the selection of reserve networks emphasize the need to represent biodiversity features efficiently, but this may not be sufficient to maintain those features in the long term. Here, we use data from the Common Birds Census in Britain as an exemplar data set to determine guidelines for the selection of reserve networks which are more robust to temporal turnover in features. The extinction patterns found over the 1981-1991 interval suggest that two such guidelines are to represent species in the best sites where they occur (higher local abundance) and to give priority to the rarer species. We tested five reserve selection strategies, one which finds the minimum representation set and others which incorporate the first or both guidelines proposed. Strategies were tested in terms of their efficiency (inversely related to the total area selected) and effectiveness (inversely related to the percentage of species lost) using data on eight pairs of ten-year intervals. The minimum set strategy was always the most efficient, but suffered higher species loss than the others, suggesting that there is a trade-off between efficiency and effectiveness. A desirable compromise can be achieved by embedding the concerns about the long-term maintenance of the biodiversity features of interest in the complementarity-based algorithms. (+info)