The need for a planned response to a deliberate introduction of smallpox has recently become urgent. We constructed a stochastic simulator of the spread of smallpox in structured communities to compare the effectiveness of mass vaccination versus targeted vaccination of close contacts of cases. Mass vaccination before smallpox introduction or immediately after the first cases was more effective than targeted vaccination in preventing and containing epidemics if there was no prior herd immunity (that is, no prior immunologic protection within the population). The effectiveness of postrelease targeted and mass vaccinations increased if we assumed that there was residual immunity in adults vaccinated before 1972, but the effectiveness of targeted vaccination increased more than that of mass vaccination. Under all scenarios, targeted vaccination prevented more cases per dose of vaccine than did mass vaccination. Although further research with larger-scale structured models is needed, our results suggest that increasing herd immunity, perhaps with a combination of preemptive voluntary vaccination and vaccination of first responders, could enhance the effectiveness of postattack intervention. It could also help targeted vaccination be more competitive with mass vaccination at both preventing and containing a deliberate introduction of smallpox. (+info)
Immunisation policy: from compliance to concordance?
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Immunisation has proved a highly effective public health policy. However, it has come under public suspicion at times, with large falls in pertussis immunizations in the 1980s and smaller falls in measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine uptake recently. Immunisation scares have also occurred in other countries. This discussion paper explores the concepts of herd immunity, altruism, and informed consent. Historical, quantitative, and qualitative research on the sociology of immunisation is reviewed. Recent research has shown that the concerns of parents include a loss of trust in health professionals and increasing worries about side effects. The sociologist Streefland is the leader of the World Health Organisation Sociology and Immunisation Project. His concept of the five perspectives on immunisation is explained. Concordance is then described as a dialogue based on mutual respect between different perspectives. Finally, some suggestions are made for immunisation policy in the UK. Immunisation policy should move from the current situation, which largely assumes the passive compliance of the population, to a policy where people are actively involved and their views respected. (+info)
Role of herd immunity in determining the effect of vaccines against sexually transmitted disease.
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BACKGROUND: Vaccination programs provide both direct protection to those immunized and herd immunity, which is indirect protection of those who remain susceptible, owing to a reduced prevalence of infections. METHODS: The well-understood impact of vaccination against ubiquitous childhood infections is compared with that of vaccination against sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and theoretical insights are derived from a review of mathematical modeling studies. RESULTS: Typically, a large fraction of cases of STIs are acquired by those with modest risk, and these cases could be prevented by low-efficacy vaccines. If coverage is good, vaccination of only one sex can protect the other sex. Candidate vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV) and genital herpes are in the final stages of testing. The former is likely to be highly efficacious for a limited number of disease-causing HPV types, and the latter has provided protection against disease in women who initially were seronegative for both herpes simplex virus (HSV) type 1 and HSV-2, with 73% efficacy. In models, this vaccine had a substantial impact when infectiousness was assumed to be reduced along with incidence of disease. CONCLUSION: With such vaccines on the horizon, the requirements for vaccine delivery need to be considered, particularly who should be vaccinated and at what age. (+info)
Dynamic models of meningococcal carriage, disease, and the impact of serogroup C conjugate vaccination.
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Much interest has surrounded the use of conjugate vaccines in recent years, with the development of vaccines against disease caused by Haemophilus influenzae type b, Neisseria meningitidis, and Streptococcus pneumoniae. These vaccines offer the potential for safe and effective disease control, but some questions remain, particularly regarding the duration and mechanisms of protection and the longer-term impact of vaccination on carriage. In this paper, the authors use data on immunization with serogroup C meningococcal conjugate vaccines in England and Wales to develop and apply a mathematical model to investigate the direct and indirect (herd immunity) effects of a conjugate vaccine program. A realistic, age-structured, dynamic model was developed and parameterized and was fitted to epidemiologic data from England and Wales. The effects of a range of vaccine strategies, including hypothetical scenarios, were investigated. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 1.36. Catch-up vaccination targeting teenagers generated substantial herd immunity and was important in controlling disease rapidly. The results were sensitive to changes in the assumptions regarding the method of vaccine action, particularly duration of protection and efficacy of vaccination against carriage acquisition. This model can be used to help predict the potential impact of vaccine strategies both in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. (+info)
A measles epidemic threshold in a highly vaccinated population.
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BACKGROUND: Mass vaccination against measles has successfully lowered the incidence of the disease and has changed the epidemic pattern from a roughly biennial cycle to an irregular sequence of outbreaks. A possible explanation for this sequence of outbreaks is that the vaccinated population is protected by solid herd immunity. If so, we would expect to see the fraction of susceptible individuals remaining below an epidemic threshold. An alternative explanation is the occurrence of occasional localised lapses in herd immunity that allow for major outbreaks in areas with a low vaccine coverage. In that case, we would expect the fraction of susceptible individuals to exceed an epidemic threshold before outbreaks occur. These two explanations for the irregular sequence of measles outbreaks can be tested against observations of both the fraction of susceptible individuals and infection attack rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We have estimated both the fraction of susceptible individuals at the start of each epidemic year and the infection attack rates for each epidemic year in the Netherlands over a 28-y period. During this period the vaccine coverage averaged 93%, and there was no sustained measles transmission. Several measles outbreaks occurred in communities with low vaccine coverage, and these ended without intervention. We show that there is a clear threshold value for the fraction of susceptible individuals, below which only minor outbreaks occurred, and above which both minor and major outbreaks occurred. A precise, quantitative relationship exists between the fraction of susceptible individuals in excess of this threshold and the infection attack rate during the major outbreaks. CONCLUSION: In populations with a high but heterogeneous vaccine coverage, measles transmission can be interrupted without establishing solid herd immunity. When infection is reintroduced, a major outbreak can occur in the communities with low vaccine coverage. During such a major outbreak, each additional susceptible individual in excess of the threshold is associated with almost two additional infections. This quantitative relationship offers potential for anticipating both the likelihood and size of future major outbreaks when measles transmission has been interrupted. (+info)
Measles outbreak in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, 2003.
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BACKGROUND: Measles is a highly contagious viral infection. Measles transmission can be prevented through high population immunity (>or=95%) achieved by measles vaccination. In the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), no measles cases were reported during 1989-2002; however, a large measles outbreak occurred in 2003. Reported 1-dose measles vaccine coverage among children aged 12-23 months varied widely (52-94%) between 1990 and 2000. METHODS: RMI is a Pacific island nation (1999 population: 50,840). A measles case was defined as fever, rash, and cough, or coryza, or conjunctivitis, in an RMI resident between July 13 and November 7, 2003. A vaccination campaign was used for outbreak control. RESULTS: Of the 826 reported measles cases, 766 (92%) occurred in the capital (Majuro). There were 186 (23%) cases in infants aged <1 year and 309 (37%) of cases in persons aged >or=15 years. The attack rate was highest among infants (Majuro atoll: 213 cases/1,000 infants). Among cases aged 1-14 years, 281 (59%) reported no measles vaccination before July 2003. There were 100 hospitalizations and 3 deaths. The measles H1 genotype was identified. The vaccination campaign resulted in 93% coverage among persons aged 6 months to 40 years. Interpretation Populations without endemic measles transmission can accumulate substantial susceptibility and be at risk for large outbreaks when measles virus is imported. 'Islands' of measles susceptibility may develop in infants, adults, and any groups with low vaccine coverage. To prevent outbreaks, high population immunity must be sustained by maintaining and documenting high vaccine coverage. (+info)
Dengue prevention and 35 years of vector control in Singapore.
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After a 15-year period of low incidence, dengue has reemerged in Singapore in the past decade. We identify potential causes of this resurgence. A combination of lowered herd immunity, virus transmission outside the home, an increase in the age of infection, and the adoption of a case-reactive approach to vector control contribute to the increased dengue incidence. Singapore's experience with dengue indicates that prevention efforts may not be sustainable. For renewed success, Singapore needs to return to a vector control program that is based on carefully collected entomologic and epidemiologic data. Singapore's taking on a leadership role in strengthening disease surveillance and control in Southeast Asia may also be useful in reducing virus importation. (+info)
Relationship between neighbourhood-level killed oral cholera vaccine coverage and protective efficacy: evidence for herd immunity.
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OBJECTIVES: The effectiveness of vaccines in populations must consider both direct and indirect protection. This study reanalyses data from a large individually randomized oral cholera vaccine trial that was conducted in rural Bangladesh from 1985 to 1990. A recent analysis of the results of that trial showed that the proportion of people in household clusters who received the vaccine was inversely related to placebo incidence during the first year of surveillance, which was attributed to herd immunity. METHODS: In this study we measure the relationship between neighbourhood-level oral cholera vaccine coverage and protective efficacy (PE) during a 2 year follow-up period, controlling for known effect modifiers. We link trial data to a household geographic information system to facilitate the neighbourhood-level analysis. Findings Neighbourhood-level PE can be partially explained by vaccine coverage after adjusting for ecological variables. CONCLUSIONS: The inverse relationship between vaccine coverage and efficacy illustrates that people living in high-coverage areas may be indirectly protected from cholera because people living around them are vaccinated. (+info)