• Their experiences have given rise to educational materials, seminars, and even academic research that provide insights into risk management, decision-making under uncertainty, and the interplay of skill and chance. (micheltemerpresidente.com)
  • Contrary to traditional finance which views all investors as rational, value maximizing individuals capable of applying probability and decision making under uncertainty, behavioral finance asserts many behavior phenomenon that impact investor decisions. (gaebler.com)
  • As a data scientist with expertise in data-driven decision-making under uncertainty, I've been watching how people react to coronavirus risks since the beginning of the pandemic. (allsides.com)
  • Thus, risk aversion may manifest differently in different domains - human life versus economic outcomes - with women leaders being significantly more risk-averse in the domain of human life but more risk-taking in the economy domain. (netri.org)
  • Moreover, in a world without full learning (i.e. partial and no learning), risk aversion can lead to better outcomes, but only if risk aversion is sufficiently high. (repec.org)
  • When applied to credit markets, the term "risk premium" is sometimes used in a broader sense to include expected losses, but I am thinking of risk premiums as the extra compensation for the uncertainty around anticipated economic and financial outcomes. (federalreserve.gov)
  • Successful mergers and acquisitions, therefore, require careful navigation of multiple layers of regulatory review and strategic planning on a global scale to minimise the risk of divergent outcomes. (lexology.com)
  • Strategy C created the most wealth - despite taking the largest withdrawals, but retirees should not measure outcomes based on final wealth alone. (munknee.com)
  • In turn, individual decision-makers become cautious and coordinate on risk-dominant outcomes. (rebuildingmacroeconomics.ac.uk)
  • Risk-taking outcomes were investigated using a coefficient of variation and a risk-adjusted performance measure. (bvsalud.org)
  • I am lucky that my family has the resources where we could afford to be risk averse. (balloon-juice.com)
  • Scholarly work on attitudes to risk and uncertainty also suggests that women in leadership appear to be more risk-averse than men. (netri.org)
  • However, while women leaders were risk-averse about lives, they were prepared to take significant risks with their economies by locking down early. (netri.org)
  • For example, while a risk-neutral investor would demand a certain spread on a junk bond over a risk-free rate of the same maturity as compensation for expected losses, a risk-averse investor likely requires an even wider spread depending on the covariance characteristics of the bond's total return. (federalreserve.gov)
  • This behavior is caused when risk averse traders liquidate their positions in risky assets and shift the funds to less risky assets due to uncertainty. (sanrafaelindustries.com)
  • Yet portfolios with maximal growth also produce the greatest catastrophes, which means a risk-averse retiree may not want that approach. (munknee.com)
  • Research by Jennifer Lerner, a Harvard University professor, shows that people who are feeling scared tend to become more risk averse, even in seemingly unrelated domains. (shlomobenartzi.com)
  • The global 2050 carbon emissions targets may be eclipsed by a rare-earth supply-demand imbalance-unless governments, investors, and companies take swift, aggressive, and purposeful action. (bcg.com)
  • Investors and entrepreneurs must take chances to find new innovations. (city-journal.org)
  • Financial markets are the channel through which our policy affects the economy, and asset prices contain valuable information about investors' expectations for the course of policy, economic activity, and inflation, as well as about the risks around those expectations. (federalreserve.gov)
  • To be clear, when I say "risk premium" I mean the additional compensation required by investors for holding a risky security--that is, one with uncertain returns--above the compensation that would be demanded by risk-neutral investors who care only about expected returns. (federalreserve.gov)
  • Investors' expectations are reflected in asset prices, but so are risk premiums, and inferences about future economic conditions obtained from market prices are conditional on estimates of those premiums. (federalreserve.gov)
  • The efficient market hypothesis states that rational investors will quickly take advantage of any deviation from a security's true value. (gaebler.com)
  • The stock prices of many technology companies did not represent their true value, but rational investors did not take advantage of these deviations. (gaebler.com)
  • For instance, if a company has a history of releasing poor results, some investors will characterize the company as being lousy and assume they will offer poor results in the future. (gaebler.com)
  • Corporate investors use analysts and sophisticated modelling to evaluate and manage risk, and their risk management plan will reflect their personal level of risk tolerance or risk aversion. (capital.com)
  • Investors have lots of tools at their disposal to estimate risks to their portfolio. (capital.com)
  • Alpha is a risk adjusted performance measure that tells investors if they're being properly compensated for volatility risk they've taken. (capital.com)
  • This occurs because investors often turn to safe assets such as gold and silver during periods of market volatility and risk aversion. (publishwhatyoupay.org)
  • And will it be sufficient to counter European investors' risk aversion in Africa? (odi.org)
  • Facing rejection from major studios due to her experimental storytelling approach, Thompson took matters into her own hands by seeking out private investors and crowdfunding platforms. (valseavecbachir-lefilm.com)
  • Among the risk premiums that we monitor regularly at the Federal Reserve are those on equity returns, equity volatility, corporate bonds, and Treasury securities. (federalreserve.gov)
  • In that framework, major trading platforms have decided to take measures to tackle volatility down and have changed leverages and margin requirements to trade certain assets. (expertinvestor.net)
  • But the fact remains that transient uncertainty is the main culprit for this volatility, and the economy may prove resilient once the outbreak is contained. (expertinvestor.net)
  • Market risk or volatility - this is essentially the daily change in share prices. (capital.com)
  • Finally, implementing investment strategies like long-term buy and hold , short-term trading and speculation , and dollar-cost averaging can help mitigate risks associated with volatility. (publishwhatyoupay.org)
  • Bitcoin's volatility has dropped to historically low levels thanks to macroeconomic uncertainty and low market liquidity. (thespuzz.com)
  • It shows previous instances when LTH spending increased, which was usually followed by a volatility uptick. (thespuzz.com)
  • Risk management is the process of identifying potential risks in your investment portfolio, and taking steps to mitigate accordingly. (capital.com)
  • A risk management plan will work out how to mitigate these risks. (capital.com)
  • for instance, should there be any declines in its value, traders may need to adjust stop-loss orders or reduce leverage so as to mitigate their risk exposure. (oneshopinsurance.com)
  • Gamblers have unknowingly participated in experiments that shed light on concepts like loss aversion, overconfidence, and the framing effect. (micheltemerpresidente.com)
  • This overconfidence can lead to excessive risk taking and decreases in gains. (gaebler.com)
  • Combined with overconfidence in our abilities and over-optimism about the future hindsight bias effectively denies us the ability to learn from our mistakes unless we take the greatest care to do so. (psyfitec.com)
  • I am pleased to have an opportunity to participate in this conference on the time variation and macroeconomic links of financial market risk premiums. (federalreserve.gov)
  • Americans have become intolerant of many risks that people once dealt with on a daily basis, as the Covid-19 pandemic has shown. (city-journal.org)
  • Take those who are experiencing fear, a common response to the pandemic. (shlomobenartzi.com)
  • However, rare are those who expect strategic talks to take place before the end of the year. (eurasiareview.com)
  • In our model, in the presence of multiple narratives about future risks arise, no individual decision-maker can predict what other decision-makers will do today: such strategic uncertainty in the presence of multiple narratives enhances perceived future risk and hence anxiety today. (rebuildingmacroeconomics.ac.uk)
  • In our understanding, lighthouse policies can have the additional effect of guiding the economy through times of high economic anxiety by stabilising expectations and creating a degree of common knowledge about the future mitigating strategic uncertainty today, enabling welfare enhancing productive investments. (rebuildingmacroeconomics.ac.uk)
  • Loss aversion is one such trait, the tendency to take less risks when protecting a gain than when chasing a loss. (psyfitec.com)
  • There are many reasons for our declining risk tolerance. (city-journal.org)
  • The skeptical perception reflects a high tolerance for risk. (allsides.com)
  • Relatively late lockdown decisions by male leaders may reflect male risk aversion to anticipated losses from locking down the economy. (netri.org)
  • Then, analyse the variables that might limit your returns or lead to losses, and identify any potential risks in your portfolio. (capital.com)
  • Furthermore, precious metals like gold are often perceived as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty, including periods of high oil prices. (publishwhatyoupay.org)
  • You need two conditions for getting a higher equity allocation for longer time periods: mean reversion and risk aversion greater than 1. (cfainstitute.org)
  • It bridges two strands of literature: one focused on the role learning for the success of IEA formation when countries are risk neutral and another that explores the implications of uncertainty and risk aversion on IEA formation under no learning. (repec.org)
  • This paper analyses the formation of international environmental agreements (IEAs) under uncertainty, focusing on the role of learning and risk aversion. (repec.org)
  • Combining learning and risk aversion seems appropriate as the uncertainties surrounding many international environmental problems are still large, those uncertainties are often highly correlated as for instance in climate change and hence pooling risks may be limited, but those uncertainties are gradually reduced over time through learning. (repec.org)
  • International Environmental Agreements with Uncertainty, Learning and Risk Aversion ," Department of Economics Working Papers 19/14, University of Bath, Department of Economics. (repec.org)
  • International Environmental Agreements with Uncertainty, Learning and Risk Aversion ," CESifo Working Paper Series 4589, CESifo. (repec.org)
  • Environmental uncertainty was associated with implicit contracts while for explicit contracts, kraal owners' outside options or opportunity cost for monitoring was associated with fixed-wage contracts, subsidy-only contracts, and input contribution by kraal owners. (springeropen.com)
  • One reason why Australian banks garnered a relatively low share of their income from trading and securities holdings is that they did not have as much incentive as many banks around the world to seek out higher-yielding, but higher-risk, offshore assets. (rba.gov.au)
  • On the other hand, what's known as unsystematic risk will only impact on a tiny number of assets. (capital.com)
  • Political risk - the risk of an unexpected change in government policy, for example a move towards stricter regulation, nationalisation or confiscation of assets. (capital.com)
  • If you compare two assets against the same benchmark, the asset with the higher Sharpe ratio generates a better return for the same risk. (capital.com)
  • For retirees, this could mean drawing down assets too quickly, or potentially selecting a portfolio with excessive risk. (shlomobenartzi.com)
  • Our paper finds that the currency denomination of public debt is an especially important determinant of emerging market and developing countries' reserve holdings, likely reflecting central banks' desire to hedge against risks associated with debt obligations. (imf.org)
  • An important element in interpreting financial market prices is the identification of the risk premiums they contain. (federalreserve.gov)
  • In the Treasury market, risk--or term--premiums are generally evident as maturities extend and reflect mostly the interaction of risk aversion and uncertainty about the future path of interest rates. (federalreserve.gov)
  • Clearly, the separation of market prices into distinct pieces reflecting expected values and risk is a difficult task that relies heavily on modeling assumptions about underlying processes and investor behavior. (federalreserve.gov)
  • Now, let's talk about the measures taken by market players. (expertinvestor.net)
  • Especially with regards to IPOs, the efficient market hypothesis could not explain the large amounts of irrationality that were taking place during the technology bubble. (gaebler.com)
  • For instance, if a company unexpectedly reports a substantial increase in earnings, the market occasionally under-reacts to the announcement. (gaebler.com)
  • For instance, when the International https://www.quora.com/Any-reviews-about-the-DotBig-Forex-broker Monetary Fund calculates the value of its special drawing rights every day, they use the London market prices at noon that day. (sanrafaelindustries.com)
  • Risk aversion is a kind of trading behavior exhibited by the foreign exchange market when a potentially adverse event happens that may affect market conditions. (sanrafaelindustries.com)
  • A decline in market risk aversion and a shock to business and consumer confidence means that growth in 2022 is likely to be close to what was expected at the start of the year. (eurasiareview.com)
  • When we speak about systematic risk we mean uncertainty that prevails across the entire market or a major market segment. (capital.com)
  • The CAPM formula is the risk-free rate plus beta of the security times the difference of the expected return on the market and the risk-free rate. (capital.com)
  • Being the world's largest and most liquid market, forex is highly sensitive to changes in political events or economic risks that impact it. (oneshopinsurance.com)
  • Founded in 1987, the World Gold Council is the market development organization for the gold industry responsible for stimulating demand, developing innovative uses for gold and taking new products to the market. (goldtalkclub.com)
  • The participants then choose a gambling scenario: Additionally, the participant may choose a separate gamble scenario within the same situational parameters: The experimental conditions manufactured by Ellsberg serve to rely upon two economic principles: Knightian uncertainty, the unquantifiable nature of the mix between both yellow and black balls within the single urn, and probability, of which red balls are drawn at 1/3 vs. 2/3. (wikipedia.org)
  • Certain Covid restrictions can be justified, but extreme risk-aversion from government bureaucrats has caused more harm than good-for example, shutting down in-person teaching for children, who were at low risk from the virus, or imposing draconian economic lockdowns that caused many businesses needlessly to fail. (city-journal.org)
  • Entrepreneurship and openness to new opportunities once fueled America's economic dynamism, but now the government is becoming our risk inhibitor, a collective helicopter parent. (city-journal.org)
  • Risk Preference Estimation in the Nonlinear Mean Standard Deviation Approach ," Economic Inquiry , Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 770-782, October. (repec.org)
  • Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk ," Review of Economic Studies , Oxford University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86. (repec.org)
  • The short-term economic impact will depend importantly on people's expectations of the overall effect, and the amount of uncertainty thereof. (cepr.org)
  • Precious metal investments have long been regarded as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty. (publishwhatyoupay.org)
  • they were prone to taking on too much risk, which promised higher returns - and made failure more likely. (europa.eu)
  • But people are prone to assess risk emotionally. (allsides.com)
  • The hypothesis considered was that a valid instrument would successfully distinguish sex differ- ences, indicating men are more prone to risk than women. (bvsalud.org)
  • In other words, it constitutes a psychological payoff experienced by a decision-maker today in response to perceived future risk (Caplin and Leahy, 2001). (rebuildingmacroeconomics.ac.uk)
  • Anxiety aversion implies that a higher perceived future risk will trigger a higher negative psychological payoff today. (rebuildingmacroeconomics.ac.uk)
  • As the psychological payoff associated with anxiety aversion is experienced today, a higher degree of impatience is associated with a higher degree of anxiety aversion. (rebuildingmacroeconomics.ac.uk)
  • When offered choices with varying risk, people prefer choices with calculable risk, even when they have less utility. (wikipedia.org)
  • Risk aversion is why people actually buy insurance - they are willing to take a guaranteed small loss in order to avoid the possibility of a massive loss. (balloon-juice.com)
  • Imagine, for instance, that you are standing on a footbridge when you see that an oncoming train is about to kill five people walking on the track. (taipeitimes.com)
  • Many people feel such strong revulsion at the idea of pushing the man to his death that they would prefer to take no action at all, even though that means that many more lives will be lost. (taipeitimes.com)
  • Confusion towards uncertainty and a fear of the future indicates that people in society are struggling to find their wings. (substack.com)
  • People tend to overestimate or underestimate risk. (allsides.com)
  • What people often confuse with risk is lack of control . (allsides.com)
  • People accept risks when they favorably weigh the perceived or potential benefits against the associated costs . (allsides.com)
  • It is imperative to take care of the people first to achieve the desired goals and objectives as without a healthy. (leadergroup.com)
  • Historically triggers in drought risk management have been demarcated solely in specialist hydrological science terms using indices and critical thresholds. (frontiersin.org)
  • As a result, Australian banks' balance sheets are heavily weighted towards domestic loans, particularly to the historically low-risk household sector. (rba.gov.au)
  • Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk ," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 14, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University. (repec.org)
  • Understanding human behavior in the context of risk-taking and decision-making has led to breakthroughs in cognitive psychology and behavioral economics. (micheltemerpresidente.com)
  • Yet, the risks to the growth outlook remain tilted to the downside, even though their balance is improving. (bis.org)
  • This article analyzes 3 such approaches based on wealth, spending, probabilities of success, magnitudes of failure and utility functions that weigh both the upside and downside risks. (munknee.com)
  • The best retirement income strategy will depend on whether you measure based on wealth, spending, probabilities of success, magnitudes of failure or utility functions that weigh both the upside and downside risks! (munknee.com)
  • The reason is that risk propensity is a term that may be defined differently according to individual perceptions of what risk is, individual characteristics (e.g., age, gender, etc.), individu- al skills related to performing a given task, perception and social/group judgment of risk, the characteristics of the task itself, and balance of loss and gain of certain alter- natives (Figner & Weber, 2011). (bvsalud.org)
  • Here, we propose several trading strategies that control risk by hedging against penalising balancing prices in favour of rewarding ones by contracting forecast generation plus some adjustment. (mdpi.com)
  • These strategies are formulated in a probabilistic framework to address the presence of forecast uncertainty and asymmetric costs in balancing markets. (mdpi.com)
  • These are risk ratios used to calculate, compare and forecast returns. (capital.com)
  • In fact, a forex hedger can only hedge such risks with NDFs, as currencies such as the Argentinian peso cannot be traded on open markets like major currencies. (sanrafaelindustries.com)
  • This involved comparing specialist catchment-scale modelling of drought risk with evidence gathered from local narratives of drought perceptions/experiences. (frontiersin.org)
  • Changes in investor risk perceptions can have a tremendous effect on expected returns, as was demonstrated by the Brexit vote and its ramifications on major currency pairs. (oneshopinsurance.com)
  • For the law fundamentally leaves intact a system of health care predicated, as we shall see, on key neoliberal health care beliefs, for instance the "moral hazard" of free care, the primacy of health consumerism, and the essentiality of the private health insurance industry. (truthout.org)
  • Like you I am concerned that that so many of taken-for-granted beliefs and ideals are attacked and successfully de-legitimated without facing any serious opposition. (substack.com)
  • A wide schism of risk beliefs about the virus and the vaccines separate these two groups. (allsides.com)
  • Even though we have a European resolution mechanism, much of the action still takes place at the national level - with all the differences that entails. (europa.eu)
  • Our findings indicate that drought risk presents many complexities within the catchment, given its cross-sectoral nature, rich sources of available water, variable prior drought experience among stakeholders, and different quantitative and perceptual impact thresholds across and within sectors. (frontiersin.org)
  • It is shown that the negative conclusion with respect to the role of learning derived for risk neutrality has to be qualified: below a threshold level of risk aversion learning can impact positively on the success of IEAs, above the threshold the opposite is true. (repec.org)
  • Foreign exchange risk - the impact of fluctuations in currency exchange rates on the value of an investment or portfolio. (capital.com)
  • Interest rate risk - the possibility that interest rate changes will impact on the value of an investment, particularly a bond. (capital.com)
  • Risk aversion, on the other hand, captures the impact of current risk on current payoffs. (rebuildingmacroeconomics.ac.uk)
  • Providing global public goods under uncertainty ," Journal of Public Economics , Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 591-603, October. (repec.org)
  • Early criticism of Global Gateway centred on how it ' repackaged' existing finance and the uncertainty over its implementation. (odi.org)
  • The Brexit vote has caused widespread uncertainty across global markets, including forex. (oneshopinsurance.com)
  • Banks have ready access to debt funding and, with investor risk appetite returning, the higher-rated banks have increased issuance of debt not supported by the Government guarantee. (rba.gov.au)
  • You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. (sanrafaelindustries.com)
  • To manage risk first you need to work out what you want to gain and what you can afford to lose, and over what timeframe. (capital.com)
  • Ellsberg's findings indicate that choices with an underlying level of risk are favored in instances where the likelihood of risk is clear, rather than instances in which the likelihood of risk is unknown. (wikipedia.org)
  • Taking advantage of a fine-grained dataset comprising 34 historical cryptocurrency price time series collected tick-by-tick on the HitBTC exchange, we observe the changes in interactions among these cryptocurrencies from two aspects: time and level of granularity. (mdpi.com)
  • This formula calculates the expected return on a security based on its risk level. (capital.com)
  • Those in this group overestimate the risk of the virus at the personal level. (allsides.com)
  • Their actions suggest that they underestimate the risk of the virus at the population level. (allsides.com)
  • A recent meta-analysis documented the mortality risk for VLBW and very-preterm (VPT) infants who are born outside of a level III hospital (level III NICUs are defined by the Perinatal Section of the American Academy of Pediatrics). (medscape.com)
  • CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. (capital.com)
  • A loss of confidence about knowing our place in the world is most strikingly expressed through a mood of risk-aversion, censoriousness, and conformism. (substack.com)
  • The conclusion is that the instrument is innovative, considering loss was added to the study of risk, and proved to be valid for use with Brazilian samples. (bvsalud.org)
  • Some approaches favour private risk sharing, others, public risk sharing. (europa.eu)
  • to On April 28, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that his country was ready to take the lead in initiating a process to end the war in Ukraine and to propose a long-term peace. (eurasiareview.com)
  • This paper examines the specific case of single-price balancing markets and derives risk-constrained strategies in a probabilistic framework, going beyond the trivial zero/max solution, which would have participants offer either zero or their maximum energy production based on a prediction of whether the system will be in net up- or down-regulation. (mdpi.com)
  • Although your papers concentrate on the equity premium, I would like to take a few minutes today to broaden the discussion to encompass risk premiums in other markets and to highlight the connections between risk premiums and monetary policy. (federalreserve.gov)
  • Nevertheless, there have been some innovative developments: for instance, the newly announced African Local Currency Bond guarantee programme - established in collaboration with German development bank KfW - will support the development of local and regional capital markets in an area where access to capital is limited and its cost is disproportionately high compared to other regions. (odi.org)
  • As with the economy, financial markets are facing considerable uncertainty. (oneshopinsurance.com)
  • The UK's decision to leave the EU has taught currency markets some invaluable lessons about how they respond to political uncertainty. (oneshopinsurance.com)
  • But our goal as a society seems more and more to be reducing risk at all costs. (city-journal.org)
  • Uncertainty about these costs is very large, both for individuals and in the cross-section. (cepr.org)
  • For instance, individuals sometimes act irrationally and make decisions based on emotion rather than reason. (gaebler.com)
  • At the heart of all such decisions is how you as an individual assess risk and make decisions based on your assessments. (allsides.com)
  • This applies in the evidence used in statutory drought risk management with its focus on the science and statistics of rainfall, soil moisture, river flows, groundwater levels and water supply systems. (frontiersin.org)
  • The evidence is really fuzzy, and usable or actionable evidence is almost zilch because of all this horizon uncertainty. (cfainstitute.org)
  • The largest downward shift so far took place between 10 March and 13 March. (cepr.org)
  • That's my take and I am available for criticism at this time. (balloon-juice.com)
  • Will Goetzmann pointed out, though, that over the course of time, the risk premium has declined, depending on whether you invest for 40 years or 400. (cfainstitute.org)
  • ST: There is a viewpoint that due to the inherent risks that come with innovation large organisations cannot be innovative. (marketingmag.com.au)
  • The government plays a growing role in removing risk from our lives, from the financial system to the workplace and beyond. (city-journal.org)
  • The second panel took into consideration the regulatory reform measures that the United States and the EU have started to enact in order to address the core financial problems that led to the crisis. (brookings.edu)
  • Financial advisers talk about risk management with their clients as part of portfolio planning. (capital.com)
  • Country risk - the possibility that a government will be unable to meet its financial obligations. (capital.com)
  • Because HCP provide care to tion control professionals, and occupational health patients at high risk for complications of influenza, HCP professionals responsible for influenza vaccination programs should be considered a high priority for expanding influenza and influenza infection control programs in their institutions. (cdc.gov)
  • My goal is not to draw conclusions on recent movements in risk premiums but rather to give you a sense of how estimates of risk premiums may influence our policy decisionmaking, to note some of the difficulties that we face in interpreting their movements, and, I hope, to stimulate further research in this already fertile field. (federalreserve.gov)
  • But these qualifications do not diminish the point that risk premiums are certainly relevant for monetary policy deliberations, and we do pay attention to our best estimates of them. (federalreserve.gov)
  • Our increasing aversion to taking chances creates dangers of its own. (city-journal.org)
  • Funding conditions have also improved as the extreme risk aversion prevailing around the turn of the year has abated. (rba.gov.au)
  • For instance, reserve currency portfolio decisions may be influenced by foreign policy considerations and security ties. (imf.org)
  • Results suggest that a management paradigm that integrates both traditional and non-traditional "fuzzy" threshold concepts across sectors should be integrated into current and future policy frameworks for drought risk management. (frontiersin.org)
  • Despite the strong case for risk pooling, there are few private insurance options covering LTSS available. (who.int)
  • Risk is critical for a flourishing society and vibrant economy. (city-journal.org)
  • A decision-maker will overwhelmingly favor a choice with a transparent likelihood of risk, even in instances where the unknown alternative will likely produce greater utility. (wikipedia.org)