The paper suggests an econometric methodology for testing the effectiveness of reforms implemented in one major step, i.e., discrete reforms. The methodology is based on the exogeneity properties of variables in an econometric model. The paper specifies the preconditions for setting up an appropriate model; suggests an economic interpretation of the tests for weak, strong, and superexogeneity; and illustrates this methodology by applying it to two cases of instantaneous reforms. The exogeneity properties of variables in a correctly specified econometric model may help uncover information on the preparation, implementation, and the outcome of such reforms, which could be useful for future policy advice.
A dynamic econometric model of the hog-pork industry is developed. Specification of major behavioral relationships is initially based on theoretical considerations of the rational behavior of microeconomic units. But the theoretical relationships does not give useful information about the expected behavior in the system. Moreover, most economic time series data are happenstance, thus, a certain amount of experimental modeling with an econometric model is conducted. The model consists of four equations, they are the slaughter number, retail pork supply, retail demand and marketing margin equations. The retail pork supply equation is an identity equation. All other equations combined the preinformation which is generated by time series analysis with the economic model specified on the basis of economic theory. The retail demand and marketing margin equations are a simultaneous system. Both 2SLS and 3SLS estimation methods are used ...
Downloadable (with restrictions)! This study offers a simultaneous equations model of the birth process with seven endogenous variables: four birth inputs (maternal smoking, maternal drinking, first trimester prenatal care, and maternal weight gain) and three birth outputs (gestational age, birth length, and birth weight). The data are taken from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Our analysis conditions on twenty-nine exogenous variables including four racial dummies to account for the widely cited racial differences in birth outputs. We find that there is sizeable correlation between the disturbances in the four input and three output equations and among output disturbances, and that results from our simultaneous equations model are substantially different from those using the single-equation approach. It appears that the High/Low Risk Birth Weight Puzzle remains unresolved under our modeling framework. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2003
Downloadable! A forecast produced by an econometric model is a weighted aggregate of predetermined variables in the model. In many models the number of predetermined variables used is very large, often exceeding the number of observations. A method is proposed in this paper for testing an econometric model as an aggregator of the information in these predetermined variables relative to a specified subset of them. The test, called the information aggregation (IA) test, tests whether the model makes effective use of the information in the predetermined variables or whether a smaller information set carries as much information. The method can also be used to test one model against another. The method is used to test the Fair model as an information aggregator. The Fair model is also tested against two relatively non theoretical models: a VAR model and an autoregressive components (AC) model. The AC model, which is new in this paper, estimates an autoregressive equation for each component of real GNP,
View Notes - PanelDataProblemSet4 from B 55.9912 at NYU. Department of Economics Econometric Analysis of Panel Data Professor William Greene Phone: 212.998.0876 Office: KMC 7-78 Home
This course, the first of two, focuses on the development and use of single-equation econometric models that enable analysts to better understand their economic/business landscape and to improve their ability to make sound economic/business forecasts. Through hands-on exercises, participants gain knowledge of the practical elements of applied econometric analysis. The overall aims are to sharpen the quantitative, statistical, and analytical skills of participants in dealing with problems and issues related to business and economics as well as to improve communication skills in reporting findings to decision makers.
An important subset of the literature on agglomeration externalities hypothesizes that intrasectoral and intersectoral relations are endogenously determined in models of local and regional economic growth. Remarkably, structural adjustment models describing the spatio-temporal dynamics of population and employment levels or growth traditionally do not include intersectoral economic dynamics. This paper argues and shows that ... read more allowing for economic linkages across sectors in these models adds considerable value, especially in forecasting. An econometric model of population-employment dynamics, in which sectoral variations in economic development are explicitly taken into account, is applied to a large urban planning policy proposal in the Netherlands. The empirical analyses suggest that population dynamics are largely exogenous, population changes drive employment in particular in the industry and retail sectors, and employment in all sectors depends strongly on intersectoral ...
Ecosystem services are benefits people derive from resources in ecosystems. Playa lakes in the Southern High Plains region of North America provide several ecosystem services for humans, including recharge to the Ogallala aquifer. The Ogallala aquifer occupies 450,000 km2, it is part of eight states, and provides irrigation water to over 25% of the irrigated land in the United States. The recharge provided by playas potentially makes them important and valuable in this region. We develop an econometric model (with spatial aspects) to determine how playas affect the water level of irrigation wells and estimate the economic value to farmers of playa ecosystem services in recharging the water in those wells. We find that, in some instances, additional playa surface area may have a small but statistically significant effect on well drawdown (and, we infer, on recharge) on nearby wells, but that the value of the additional water is likely too small to significantly affect private management decisions.
GDP Constant Prices in Kenya is expected to be 1119122.37 KES Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Constant Prices in Kenya to stand at 1106270.36 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Kenya GDP Constant Prices is projected to trend around 1070016.84 KES Million in 2020, according to our econometric models. This page provides - Kenya GDP Constant Prices - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
The problems with Chinas regional industrial overcapacity are often influenced by local governments. This study constructs a framework that includes the resource and environmental costs to analyze overcapacity using the non-radial direction distance function and the price method to measure industrial capacity utilization and market segmentation in 29 provinces in China from 2002 to 2014. The empirical analysis of the spatial panel econometric model shows that (1) the industrial capacity utilization in Chinas provinces has a ladder-type distribution with a gradual decrease from east to west and there is a severe overcapacity in the traditional heavy industry areas; (2) local government intervention has serious negative effects on regional industry utilization and factor market segmentation more significantly inhibits the utilization rate of regional industry than commodity market segmentation; (3) economic openness improves the utilization rate of industrial capacity while the internet ...
Government Budget Value in Bangladesh is expected to be -100000.00 BDT Billion by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Bangladesh Government Budget Value is projected to trend around -140000.00 BDT Billion in 2020, according to our econometric models.
By David Shern, Ph.D. and Andrea Blanch, Ph.D.. Whenever doing the right thing and doing the smart thing coincide, it increases the chances that something will happen. Elsewhere, we have presented data demonstrating that investments in prevention, especially in early childhood, have lifelong positive impact. They also save money. Econometric models by the Washington State Institute of Public Policy estimate that these prevention programs save many more dollars than they cost. They are smart public investments as well as the right thing to do.. ...
Lee A. Lillard, director of the Retirement Research Center at the University of Michigan, senior research scientist at its Institute for Social Research, and professor of economics, developed a unique method for analyzing the rich compendium of data collected by the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) since its inception in 1968. Lee died in December 2000, and his colleagues at PSID decided to provide the fruits of his work to the research community so others might benefit from an exploration of his techniques and methodologies for analyzing data. Lee created what he called clean processes to investigate a number of dynamic behaviors that are measured longitudinally in PSID, such as employment, marriage-divorce, and fertility. He and his programmers and research assistants put these processes into a consistent framework, and made decisions about how to resolve inconsistencies, missing items, etc. Data from the files can be entered, as appropriate, in dynamic econometric models of related and ...
The explanation of aggregate and sectoral investment behavior has been one of the less successful endeavors in empirical economics. Existing econometric models have had little success in explaining or predicting investment spending. This may be because most such models fail to account for the irreversibility of most investment spending. With irreversibility, changes in the riskiness of future cash flows or interest rates should in theory dramatically affect the decision to invest - more so than, say, a change in the levels of interest rates. Here I survey some of the empirical support for this proposition, and discuss the implications for investment modelling ...
But those figures too are misleading, because they refer to the cumulative GDP gain from TPP by 2030. Its not clear when the World Bank econometric model assumes TPP will come into effect, but by 2030 its clearly been running for at least ten years, and maybe even 12. That means all of the figures above need to be divided by at least a factor of 10 in order to arrive at the annual boost to growth, which provides a better measure of TPPs impact than the overall figure. So according to the World Banks figures, the US will gain an extra 0.04% GDP per year on average, as a result of TPP; Australia an extra 0.07% annually, and Canada a boost of 0.12% per year. In other words, they differ from the USDAs earlier projection of "no measurable impacts on real GDP" by amounts that are so small they will be swamped by the general imprecision of the model -- trying to predict what will happen to a big chunk of the global economy out in 2030 is hard, and thats putting it mildly. The fact that two ...
Description: This study compiles and updates the findings of 16 comprehensive state climate action plans and extrapolates the results to the nation. The study then takes those results and using a widely accepted econometric model projects the national impact of these policies on employment, incomes, gross domestic product (GDP) and consumer energy prices. Finally, using the bottom-up data developed by the states and aggregated here, the study models the national impact of major features of the Kerry-Lieberman climate bill under consideration in Congress in 2010. These state action plans and supporting assessments were proposed by over 1,500 stakeholders and technical work group experts appointed by 16 governors and state legislatures to address climate, energy and economic needs through comprehensive, fact-based, consensus-driven, climate action planning processes conducted over the past five years with facilitative and technical assistance by the Center for Climate Strategies. Findings show ...
In this paper we estimate the impacts of climate change on the allocation of time using econometric models that exploit plausibly exogenous variation in daily temperature over time within counties. We find large reductions in U.S. labor supply in industries with high exposure to climate and similarly large decreases in time allocated to outdoor leisure. We also find suggestive evidence of short-run adaptation through temporal substitutions and acclimatization. Given the industrial composition of the US, the net impacts on total employment are likely to be small, but significant changes in leisure time as well as large scale redistributions of income may be consequential. In developing countries, where the industrial base is more typically concentrated in climate-exposed industries and baseline temperatures are already warmer, employment impacts may be considerably larger. ...
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Series: IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 2 Date: August 29, 2005 Notes: Issues from 1998 onward are available for free online Subject: Balance of trade Bank capital Capitalization Central banks Current account Devaluation of currency Developing countries Econometric models Economic growth Financial crises Fiscal policy Fiscal transparency Inflation Inflation targeting International reserves Monetary policy Open economies Recessions Regression analysis ...
First, do it yourself. You can do this. You know your business better than anybody. I have an MBA and I can do weighted averages, smoothing, and econometric models; but I dont. I was a vice president in a market research firm and I saw that the best forecast was not the technical or mathematical models, but the common sense and judgment of the business owners.. Second, look for the drivers. For example, in a business that sells over the Internet, drivers are likely to include web traffic, meaning people looking at the website. That is likely to include browsers who got there by organic search, by clicking ads on the web, or by clicking links in social media, or some other way. Aside from traffic, theres also conversion rate, as in how many of the people browsing on the website purchase something. As another example, in a business selling physical goods in stores, there are the numbers of stores stocked, the sales per store per month, and returns. And yet another example, for the all-important ...
The present work intends to analyse the relation between the property structure as a corporate government variable and the levels of corruption. Empirical analysis will be held by two econometric models and the database comes from a questionnaire done by the World Bank to 606 enterprises, for the year 2005. Previous empirical evidence is limited and it has been a matter to consider to carry out the research. The results obtained show that a higher number of majority shareholders in the property, leads to higher levels of corruption. There is a significant percentage of the sales contracts for bribery. Also, the frequency in which payments for own benefits are carried out is reduced, revealing an inverse relation between corruption and percentage of majority shareholders. Also, negotiation with state agencies contribute to corruption. Finance and [-] ...
One in three pre-school children in the developing world is undernourished. As a consequence, their human rights are violated. In addition, they are more likely to have impaired immune systems, poorer cognitive development, lower productivity as adults, and greater susceptibility to diet-related chronic diseases such as hypertension and coronary heart disease later in life. Undernourished female preschoolers are likely to grow into undernourished young women who are more likely to give birth to babies who are undernourished even before they are born, thus perpetuating the inter-generational transmission of deprivation. Reducing these unacceptably high numbers remains a tremendous challenge to public policy. As a guide to the direction of future efforts, this research report examines the success of the efforts of the past 25 years to reduce preschooler undernutrition. The report uses an econometric model to identify the factors associated with the reduction in undernutrition. The formulation of ...
This book provides an impressive introduction to state-of-the-art methods for solving real-world problems in econometrics, including instructive examples and applied problems.
This study introduces students to applied econometrics, including basic techniques in regression analysis. Key topics in this text include self-contained summaries of the matrix algebra, statistical theory and mathematical statistics used in the book. The book covers Estimator, ML, GMM, and 2 step; panel data, heteroscedasticity, qualitative responsive models, and limited dependant variables. It emphasizes nonlinear models. Topics such as GMM estimation methods, Lagrange multiplier tests and time series analysis are also covered.
This article analyses determinants for 2001 farmland rental prices from 3,819 farms in Germany. Based on specification tests we estimate a general spatial model to account for both spatial relationships among rental prices of neighbouring farmers and spatially autocorrelated error terms. A €1 per hectare higher rental price in a farmers neighbourhood coincides with a €0.72 higher rental price paid by the farmer. The marginal incidence of EU per-hectare payments paid for eligible arable crop land on rental rates amounts to €0.38 for each additional €1 of premium payments. Regional livestock density, which is indirectly influenced by different policies, is also a major determinant of rental prices. Results are confirmed by sensitivity analyses. Consequently, German farmland rental rates are heavily influenced by agricultural policy instruments and therefore, these policies exhibit substantial distributional effects. ...
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By Jens Abildtrup, Serge Garcia and Anne Stenger; Abstract: Forest land use is often associated with the protection of water resources from contamination and the reduced cost of
Another type of cognitive feeling that is relevant to price cognition is the feeling of knowing. The extant literature on the feeling-of-knowing can address a long-standing conundrum in the pricing literature. Evidence from multiple streams of research suggests that price comparisons can be and are often done nonconsciously, without recalling the comparison standard. Price recall surveys have shown that a majority of consumers are unable to correctly articulate the past prices of products, even seconds after selecting them (Dickson and Sawyer 1990; Le Boutillier et al. 1994; Monroe and Lee 1999). For example, Krishna et al. (1991) found that more than 40 % of consumers were unable to provide a response when asked for the regular prices of products they frequently buy, and only 34 % were correct within 20 cents of the actual price. However, econometric analysis of scanner panel data that captured consumer purchase decisions in retail stores painted a different picture. Such econometric studies ...
The analysis follows standardised WHO-CHOICE guidelines on costing analysis, and estimates patient level costs and programme level costs from the societal perspective. Patient level costs are all costs incurred at the level of contact between the provider and the individual patient. The quantities of resources required in terms of diagnostic tests, drug use, and health centre visits for supervision and monitoring and hospitalisation for each of the interventions were based on WHO treatment protocols and expert opinion of actual practice. Drug costs were based on international drug prices21 with a mark up for international and local transportation costs.22 23 Unit costs of health centre visits and hospital inpatient days were based on econometric analysis by Adam et al,24 while those for laboratory tests and x rays were based on the best available international cost information included in WHO-CHOICEs costing database. Unit costs were combined with resource use patterns to estimate the cost per ...
Maria Rosaria Agostino, Francesca Aiello, and Paola Cardamone. Analysing the impact of trade preferences in gravity models. does aggregation matter? 2007. URL http://www.tradeag.eu . TRADEAG Working Paper 07/4. Accessed June 14, 2009.. Glenn C.W. Ames. An assessment of U.S. market access for traditional and nontraditional agricultural exports under the caribbean basin initiative. Journal of Agribusiness, 11(2), 1993. URL http:// ideas.repec.org/a/ags/jloagb/62337.html .. B. H. Baltagi. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, 2nd Edition. John Wiley and Sons Ltd, Chichester, 2001.. Clement Bosquet and Herve Boulhol. Scale-dependence of the negative binomial pseudo-maximum likeli-hood estimator. 2010. GREQAM Working paper No. 2010-39.. P. Brenton and M. Hoppe. The african growth and opportunity act, exports, and development in Sub-Saharan africa. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, WPS 3996, aug 2006. URL http:// ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/3996.html . Accessed July 31, 2009.. Paul Brenton and ...
A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street is a collection of essays offering empirical evidence that valuable information can be extracted from security prices. Lo and MacKinlay used powerful computers and advanced econometric analysis to test the randomness of security prices. Although this book is a heavy read, the findings should be of interest to technical analysts and chartists. In short, this book documents the presence of predictable components in stock prices. Just prior to this book, Andrew Lo wrote a paper for the Journal of Finance in 2000: Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation. Harry Mamaysky and Jiang Wang also contributed. The papers opening remarks say it all: "Technical analysis, also known as charting, has been part of financial practice for many decades, but this discipline has not received the same level of academic scrutiny and acceptance as more traditional approaches such as fundamental analysis. One of ...
With the launch of a new report and online tool for working out optimal media mixes, Thinkbox aims to provide a starting point for investment decisions based on an econometric analysis of over £1 billion of media spend - and no, its not just about ... ...
http://www.monstermashup.com/0012cd and might I add oh shit! on my first mistake! hee hee...hope to God this ones right or Im going to go into...
Using panel data from a period of water rate reform, this paper estimates the price elasticity of irrigation water demand. Price elasticity is decomposed into the direct effect of water management and the indirect effect of water price on choice of output and irrigation technology. The model is estimated using an instrumental variables strategy to account for the endogeneity of technology and output choices in the water demand equation. Estimation results indicate that the price elasticity of ...
In contrast to traditional methods the elasticity is derived from bilateral price elasticities which relate the net share of switchers between two health insurers not only to their premium difference but also to the market share and premium of the higher priced health insurer. Our new method explains the annual variation in the Dutch market share data better than the traditional methods.. We find in the Dutch social health insurance for the period 1996-2005 rather low negative annual price elasticities ranging between 1 and 0. In that period stickiness of insurer choices was high and less than 5% of the population switched annually from health insurer. This result, however, was in sharp contrast with an exceptional high price elasticity of 7 for the year 2006, where after a major health care reform about 18% of the population switched mostly to lower priced health insurers. Besides large media coverage, one important difference with previous years was that many consumers holding an individual ...
The higher the price elasticity of demand, the lower the sensitivity of market price to shifts of the supply curve. Thus, for necessity goods (such as staple foods and, in the case of petroleum-dependent societies, petroleum products), which have a low price elasticity of demand, the market price is much more sensitive to shifts in supply. In particular, a small supply shock can cause a significant increase in price. The main explanation for this massive shift is that, because of the relative inelasticity of demand to price, the price needs to be increased significantly to induce people to cut down on demand in order to compensate for the reduction in supply. In contrast, for non-essential goods, which generally have a high price elasticity of demand, supply shifts do not generally lead to significant price changes, because small (fractional) changes in price are sufficient to induce buyers to cut back on demand. ...
A definition and the formula Again, the key word is responsiveness, but this time we need to find out how responsive supply is to a given price change (rather than demand). Unsurprisingly, the formula used is very similar to the others in structure: /**/ Where: Es = The price elasticity of supply Δ = change in Qs = Quantity supplied P = Price Using the formula I do not want to dwell on this for two reasons. First, there are far fewer questions in examinations focused on the price elasticity of supply. Examiners prefer demand, where one can analyse the affects on the revenues on the firm in question (see the Learn-It on the Price elasticity of demand). Secondly, the way in which one uses this formula is exactly the same as the way in which one uses the formula for the price elasticity of demand. Try the following examples to check that you agree with me. Click on the appropriate button to reveal the answers. /**/The market price for apples rises from 50p per lb to
Supply Demand and Price Elasticity essay writing service, custom Supply Demand and Price Elasticity papers, term papers, free Supply Demand and Price Elasticity samples, research papers, help
Elasticity of demand is mainly useful in Pricing Decisions by Business Firms. The business firms take into account the price elasticity of demand when they take decisions regarding pricing of the goods. This is because change in the price of a product will bring about a change in the quantity demanded depending upon the coefficient of price elasticity. This change in quantity demanded as a result of, say a rise in price by a firm, will affect the total consumers expenditure and will therefore, and affect the revenue of the firm. If the demand for a product of the firm happens to be elastic, then any attempt on the part of the firm to raise the price of its product will bring about a fall in its total revenue. Thus, instead of gaining from the increase in price, it will lose if the demand for its product happens to be elastic. On the other hand, if the demand for the product of a firm happens to be inelastic, then the increase in price by it will raise total revenue. Therefore, for fixing a ...
What We Did: We used manufacturing analytics to develop a pricing analysis framework to identify the impact of change in price of a product on its demand to improve promotion effectiveness for a leading food manufacturer.. The Impact We Made: With the pricing analysis framework, the client was able to design multiple trade promotions for retailers, which led to 8% increment in sales volume.. Summary - Price elasticity of demand model. Being a food manufacturer, it is imperative for the client to optimally price their products within or outside promotions to sustain demand. The client used to purchase pricing analysis from a third party vendor. This was proving to be an expensive affair and the client saw a need to have an in-house team to be able to do it accurately and in a scalable fashion. Mu sigma team enabled the client with the price elasticity exercise at brand / consumer segment level to achieve the required outcome.. About The Client - Large CPG company. The client is a leading food ...
One method that Toyota can consider is using the price elasticity of demand to determine whether to increase or decrease the sale price of their automobiles. The responsiveness or sensitivity of consumers to a price change is measured by a products price elasticity of demand (McConnell & Brue, ).
Interesting article on price elasticity when firms sell to other firms. If changes in prices do not affect demand, then price elasticity is not helpful in setting the profit maximizing price ...
... Price elasticity of demand is a term in economics often used when discussing price sensitivity. In other words, the pri
price elasticity of demand of whiskeythe price elasticity of demand for imported whiskey is estimated to be -0.20 over, Hire Business Economics Expert, Ask Economics Expert, Assignment Help, Homework Help, Textbooks Solutions
MaximRMS has greatly enhanced the price elasticity capabilities within the MVE(TM).. Dynamic Price Elasticity capabilities identify and focus on true competitors for each situation and take advantage of competitor rate changes and variations in demand.. Leveraging rate shop data, the totels own customer response to changes in rates by your hotel or your competitors, and competitive forward demand data, MaximRMS determines both. ...
Working with the Mexican division of a major global consumer package goods company, a study was conducted to better understand the ROI on marketing spending, coupled with a price elasticity study in a product category where the firm had several leading brands. Besides helping shift consumer and trade spending to brands and programs that delivered a significantly better ROI, the price elasticity study was quickly utilized when there was a major increase in commodity costs. Using the data and incorporating it into a proprietary model, the company revised their previously devised pricing plans resulting in a 20 improvement in profitability versus the annual plan.. ...
Calculate price elasticity of demand responsiveness with our comprehensive price elasticity of demand calculator and calculation guide.
... The price elasticity of demand measures the degree of responsiveness of quantity demanded for a certain commodity to
Price elasticity of demand Marija managed to explain perfectly what is the price elasticity and what are the factors that affect it: availability of
Carbon emissions from products contribute to anthropogenic climate change. Because of the growing concern over the environmental impact of production and consumption of consumer goods, carbon footprint information started to appear on labels of several products. In this paper we use both parametric and non-parametric econometric models in order to estimate Egyptian consumers willingness to pay (WTP) for carbon-labeled products. Contingent valuation methods based on log-logistic, log-normal and Weibull regression models revealed that consumers in Egypt are willing to pay a price premium of approximately 75 Egyptian pounds (EP) for carbon-labeled products based on the single-bound dichotomous choice (SBDC) model and up to 90 EP based on the double-bound dichotomous choice (DBDC) model. From a socio-economic perspective, results have also revealed that income, age, gender, and educational level have a significant influence on the respondents WTP. Implications of this study highlight the fact that ...