As rising temperatures threaten to reduce the area in the tropics suitable for growing coffee, scientists work to engineer more resilient coffee plants.
Gavin,. Thanks for providing more details of the results of this type of analysis.. First, a minor clarification, you write:. "The idea is that you calculate the trends in the observations to 2008 starting in 2003, 2002, 2001…. etc, and compare that to the model projections for the same period. Nothing wrong with this in principle.". But that is not exactly what we do. We dont compare observations with the same time period in the models (i.e. the same start and stop dates), but to all model projections of the same time length (i.e. 60-month to 180-month) trends from the projected data from 2001-2020 (from the A1B run) (the trends of a particular length are calculated successively, in one month steps from 2001 to 2020). This provides us with a sample of all projected trend magnitudes from a particular model run under an emissions scenario (A1B) that is close to reality (at least for the next 20 years). I bring this up just to clarify that we are comparing observations with the distribution of ...
In fact, the six hottest years on record have all occurred in the last eight years. After 2005, 1998 was the second warmest, with an average global temperature of 14.71 degrees Celsius. But there was an important difference between 1998 and 2005: the strongest El Niño of the past 100 years lifted the average 1998 temperature 0.2 degrees Celsius, whereas the record warmth last year was not buoyed by such an effect.. These readings, which come from the series maintained by NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies, continue a trend of rising global temperatures. During the past century, temperatures rose 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.44 degrees Fahrenheit), 0.6 degrees of which occurred during the last three decades, a rate unprecedented in the last millennium. The average temperature of 14.02 degrees Celsius in the 1970s rose to 14.26 degrees in the 1980s. In the 1990s it reached 14.40 degrees Celsius. And during the first six years of this new decade, global temperature has averaged 14.62 degrees ...
We show that water masses linked to North Pacific and Antarctic intermediate waters were warmer by 2.1 ± 0.4°C and 1.5 ± 0.4°C, respectively, during the middle Holocene Thermal Maximum than over the past century. Both water masses were ~0.9°C warmer during the Medieval Warm period than during the Little Ice Age and ~0.65° warmer than in recent decades. Although documented changes in global surface temperatures during the Holocene and Common era are relatively small, the concomitant changes in OHC are large ...
The RCP2.6 emission and concentration pathway is representative of the literature on mitigation scenarios aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to 2°C. These scenarios form the low e
The warmest night is expected to be Friday night.. The Met Office spokeswoman quipped: "I wouldnt want to be in a tent… because tents are pretty good at warming up and keeping in the heat.". She warned music fans to be prepared.. "There is a bit of a breeze around today and tomorrow, so people might not think its as warm as it is and might not be taking the right precautions.. "UV levels are going to be very high, so sun cream, staying hydrated and wearing sunglasses are all really important.". Glastonbury experienced its wettest day - when 16.1 mm of rain fell - in 2007.. ...
Teams two Audis and four VWs put in strong efforts in opening day at Daytona. January 27, 2012 (Daytona Beach, Fla.) - The first day at Daytona for the GRAND-AM season opener is a long one, with several practice sessions as well as qualifying crammed into one busy day at Daytona International Speedway.. With their Audi R8 Grand-Am in the Rolex Series, and an APR-Tuned Audi S4, two VW GTIs, and two VW Jetta GLIs in the Continental Tire Sports Car Challenge, APRs pit area was busy throughout Thursday and was packed for the teams qualifying sessions.. Tasked with qualifying the no. 51 APR Audi R8 Grand-Am for its first race, the 50th Rolex 24 at Daytona, Dion von Moltke laid down a lap good enough for 22nd in a strong field of 41 cars, with a lap time of 1:50.749. Showing the depth of the GT field, von Moltkes time was 1.4 seconds off the pole winning time.. "We are making big, big gains with each session," said von Moltke. "The car definitely feels better even compared to this morning. ...
What are the long-term effects of overheating on a Mac? Beyond warmer temperatures and additional noise from the fan working overtime to cool its operating environment, you can expect to see slower performance.
US and Swiss researchers have, for the first time, modelled a climate system with extremely high carbon emissions in an attempt to test the boundaries of the current computer simulation programs that inform us.. Published today, Tuesday 5 July, in IOP Publishings journal Environmental Research Letters, the study has revealed the potentially devastating effects that high carbon emissions could have on our climate.. Little attention has previously been paid to the upper bound range of future emissions which, as the researchers state, is imperative when testing the outcomes of climate change simulations.. The A1FI scenario, considered in the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), represents the upper bound of predicted carbon emissions.. The researchers, from the National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Colorado, and the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, created two hypothetical high carbon emission scenarios and compared their effects ...
Ocean and coastal law has grown rapidly in the past three decades as a specialty area within natural resources law and environmental law. The protection of oceans has received increased attention in the past decade because of sea-level rise, ocean acidification, the global overfishing crisis, widespread depletion of marine biodiversity such as marine mammals and coral reefs, and marine pollution.
In 16. I asked: Are the authors suggesting that the enhancement in global temperature by about 5 Deg C near the time of the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 55 million years ago (mya) may have been largely due to a global transformation in vegetation from one associated mainly with a temperate climate to one associated mainly with a tropical and subtropical global climate? In his Response to my question gavin replied: Not possible. The amounts of carbon released at the PETM are roughly 3 times the total amount of terrestrial biomass - it therefore needed a completely different source of carbon. - gavin]. However, my question in 16. pertained to an "enhancement" in global temperature (by about 5 Deg C), not the full extent of the rise in global temperature to the PETM.. From Zanchos(2005), … "During the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), sea surface temperatures (SST) rose by 5° C in the tropics and as much as 9° C at high latitudes (1-3), whereas bottom-waters temperatures ...
The rare Canada lynx, whose range has shrunk considerably in recent decades, faces a grave threat from rising temperatures in Maine, federal wildlife experts said on Tuesday.
A number of people are concerned that Earths temperature will rise so high and so fast in response to CO2-induced global warming that many alpine plant and animal species will soon be mere memories, because of the assumption that after being forced to migrate to the tops of the mountains upon which they now reside at lower levels, there will be nowhere else for them to go in a vertical direction but to the sorry state of extinction.. ...
A warming climate could affect the stability of alpine grasslands in Asias Tibetan Plateau, threatening the ability of farmers and herders to maintain the animals that are key to their existence, and potentially upsetting the ecology of an area in which important regional river systems originate.
Temperatures may rise to a point where animal and plant life start dying in massive numbers, scientists say. The theory is hotly debated.
Every month University of Alabama in Huntsville climatologists John Christy and Roy Spencer report the latest global temperature trends from
What happens in the Arctic doesnt stay in the Arctic. Its not just glacial melting and rising seas, but rising temperatures mean trouble for plants and animals. New studies show the Arctic faces a new reality--and so does the rest of the world.
This research investigates the impact of climate change on water resources using a multi-model ensemble approach through rainfall-runoff projection for A2 and B1 emission scenarios of IPCC (AR4) for mid (2046-2065) and ...
COP 21 led to a global agreement to limit the earths rising temperature to less than 2°C. This will require countries to act upon climate change and achieve a ...
Glyburide - With the rising temperature the pulse will be flushed, the breath hurried and superficial, the patient will be nervous, twitching, tremulous, talking a great deal.
I hate the spammers. I have been banning/deleting 1 to 2 dozen a day of late. It is set up that no posts will show up without approval up to a certain point. Some of the rest I know are spammers, but there is a line they have to cross before I can justify removing them. It is a game of sorts to see if they can make it through ... and they do not ...
Most of us wait all winter for summer to get here. The sun and warmer temperatures are beckoning us to go outside and get active. However, by the middle of...
Sea level rise refers to the relatively recent net increase of Earths ocean depth, a phenomenon that is widely attributed rising global temperatures.
NASA researchers say that since 1880, 2012 was the ninth warmest of any year continuing a long-term trend of rising global temperatures.
Map of the observed surface temperature change from 1901 to 2012 derived from temperature trends determined by linear regression from one dataset (orange line in panel a). Trends have been calculated where data availability permits a robust estimate (i.e., only for grid boxes with greater than 70% complete records and more than 20% data availability in the first and last 10% of the time period). Other areas are white. Grid boxes where the trend is significant at the 10% level are indicated by a + sign. (Graphic from the The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) less ...
Feared Trout Drop-off Signals Climate Shift in Montana Warmer temperatures and a longer summer drought season in Montana are expected to have significant impacts on the states trout fishing industry and ecosystem. In a special report, Heidi Cullen of Climate Central examines how climate-related changes are affecting Montana.. ...
The third assessment report (TAR) prominently featured[124] a graph labeled "Millennial Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction" based on a 1999 paper by Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes (MBH99), which has been referred to as the "hockey stick graph". This graph extended the similar graph in Figure 3.20 from the IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995, and differed from a schematic in the first assessment report that lacked temperature units, but appeared to depict larger global temperature variations over the past 1000 years, and higher temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period than the mid 20th century. The schematic was not an actual plot of data, and was based on a diagram of temperatures in central England, with temperatures increased on the basis of documentary evidence of Medieval vineyards in England. Even with this increase, the maximum it showed for the Medieval Warm Period did not reach temperatures recorded in central England in 2007.[123] The MBH99 ...
Smith P, Bustamante M, Ahammad H, et al. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU). In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.; 2014:811-922. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/agriculture-forestry-and-other-land-use-afolu/. ...
Many studies have documented the gender imbalance in science and have explored the reasons that women are not included or represented, especially at more senior levels of research (8⇓⇓⇓⇓-13). A 2013 special report in the journal Nature concludes that, despite some improvements, female scientists continue to face discrimination, unequal pay, and funding disparities and notes that, internationally, 70% of men and women view science as a male pursuit (14). Women face barriers associated with their family responsibilities and are poorly represented in journals and citations (15⇓⇓-18). Including women in research teams enhances innovation and discovery (19⇓-21). Claims about data and explanations of womens underrepresentation in science can be controversial with some suggesting women choose to not pursue a career in science and others recognizing more structural causes (17, 22⇓-24). In our own discipline of geography, several studies have identified barriers facing women in physical ...
In 100 years, summers in Los Angeles may be as scorching as summers in the Mojave Desert. But it doesnt have to be that way, according to a team of 19 scientists that includes Norman Miller and Larry Dale of DOEs Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.. In a study published in the August 16th issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the research team predicted that Californians could experience substantially hotter summers by the end of the century, which may lead to an increase in heat-related deaths and water and energy shortages. Just how hot depends on whats done between now and then. The researchers analyzed two greenhouse gas emission scenarios recently presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations-formed organization that informs the worlds policymakers on climate change and impacts. One scenario assumes an energy-use trajectory similar to the present course, meaning rapid introduction of new technologies, extensive economic ...
Climate variability and change has been considered to be posing the greatest threat to agriculture and food security in many of the poor, agriculture - based countries in Africa. In recognition of t his, an assessment of climate change impacts on small - scale farmers was conducted in Nyandarua South District to assess the impacts of climate variability and change on the small - scale farmers in the area. The area is nationally known as a high agricultura l potential area producing all year round horticulture produce. Data was obtained through administration of questionnaires, observation and focused group discussions. Through systematic random sampling the researcher administered 375 households questionna ires representing 10% of the total households in the study area. Descriptive statistics (frequency, mean, percentages) and inferential statistics (chi square) were used to produce associations between variables assessed. The results indicate that small - sca le farmers in North Kinangop ...
The Earth Institute at Columbia University, by Andrea Thompson and Ker Than. Our planet and its inhabitants - including we humans - are in a precarious position as we celebrate Earth Day, April 22.. While global warming is widely accepted as a reality by scientists and many governments and industrial leaders, progress to curb greenhouse gases and other forms of pollution remains limited. The current economic climate will likely make pollution control efforts more difficult, analysts say.. Recent studies, as well as the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have pointed to some of the likely effects of uncurbed greenhouse gas emissions: rising global temperatures, rising sea levels, Arctic sea ice melt, the disappear of glaciers, epic floods in some areas and intense drought in others.. These effects are intensified when combined with other forms of pollution the worlds rising population.. Humans will face widespread water shortages. Famine and disease will ...
Much of the media discussion about last weeks Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change centred on the slowdown in the rate of rise of Global Mean Temperature. This was held up by sceptics as evidence that climate models were unreliable. While preparing for a forthcoming conference, I re-plotted the data for…
On September 23 through 26, representatives of the worlds Environment Ministries will meet in Stockholm to agree on the final draft of a key portion of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers gospel which is expected, once again, to keep the political climate cauldron steaming. This Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is intended to be used by international ministers working to devise a new global treaty by 2015 to curb "climate change".. That goal is certainly no trifle, given that dramatic climate changes have been occurring over many millions of years, although lately…not so much. Therein lies the big rub. How can ministers conjure up a newsworthy sequel to previous knuckle-biting prognostications when all evidence suggests that the prophesies, and the scriptures they were based upon, were proven wrong?. ...
In a February 2007 report by the worlds foremost authority on climate change - the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In their first of six reports, the IPCC has this to say " fossil fuel pollution would raise temperature this century, worsen floods, droughts, hurricanes, melt polar ice and damage the climate system for a thousand years." Read moreClimate Change - A Fight For 4 Billion People. ...
The October 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on climate change highlights the importance of averting catastrophic climate change. Centrally, it finds that global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions must reach net zero by 2050 in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C. With the United States announced withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Climate
Description: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (SR-LULUCF) has been prepared in response to a request from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA). At its eighth session in Bonn, Germany, 2-12 Ju and technical implications of carbon sequestration strategies related to land use, land-use change, and forestry activities. The scope, structure, and outline of this Special Report was approved by the IPCC in plenary meetings during its Fourteenth Session. This Special Report examines several key questions relating to the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere and the terrestrial pool of aboveground biomass, below-ground biomass, and soils. Vegetation exchanges carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere through photosynthesis and plant and soil respiration. This natural exchange has been occurring for hundreds ...
Efforts on climate change, climate change mitigation and associated biofuel topics have led to many speaking and policy outreach contacts. He just completed service as lead author on the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III Agricultural Mitigation scientific panel. He has presented information to meetings or policy groups at NSF, DOE, EPA, USDA, Council of Economic Advisors, European Union, Chinese Government, Taiwanese government, Seed Association, Pest Management Society, Renewable fuels groups, Harvard, Stanford, MIT, Duke, Illinois, and Ohio State just to mention a few recent involvements. He regularly interacts with policy makers in EPA, USDA and the Canadian government. This has contributed to changes in policy thinking on these issues.. ...
For decades, estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) to doubling of CO2 simulated by global climate models (GCMs) have had a large intermodel spread, with a 5th-95th percentile range of approximately 2-4.5 K [1,2]. Global cloud feedbacks are the largest contributor to this spread [2,3]. Fig. 7.10 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) [2] showed global cloud feedbacks diagnosed from over 20 GCMs participating in recent rounds of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) and Cloud Feedbacks Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP2). These have an interquartile range of 0.5-0.9 W m−2 K−1, and an overall intermodel spread of 0.2-1.4 W m−2 K−1, including the effects both of warming and of rapid adjustments to increased CO2. Given the CMIP3/5 multi-model mean Planck feedback (−3.2 W m−2 K−1), water vapour/lapse rate feedback (1.0 W m−2 K−1) and snow/ice albedo feedback (0.3 W m−2 K−1), together with ...
Global Warming: An increase in the near surface temperature of the Earth. Global warming has occurred in the distant past as the result of natural influences, but the term is most often used to refer to the warming predicted to occur as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases. Scientists generally agree that the Earths surface has warmed by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past 140 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing an increase in the Earths surface temperature and that increased concentrations of sulfate aerosols have led to relative cooling in some regions, generally over and downwind of heavily industrialized areas. (See: climate change). Global Warming Potential: The ratio of the warming caused by a substance to the warming caused by a similar mass of carbon dioxide. CFC-12, for example, has a GWP of 8,500, while water has a GWP of zero. (See: Class I Substance and Class II ...
Melbourne: Monday 8 October, 2018: Latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) findings released today are further confirmation that carbon capture and storage (CCS) is essential to mitigating climate change.. Welcoming the release of the IPCCs Special Report of 1.5 Degrees, the world authority on CCS, the Global CCS Institute, said 2 degrees, let alone 1.5 degrees, cannot be met without CCS and the best climate science available was continuing to support that fact.. Global CCS Institute CEO, Brad Page, said as the world veered off-track in meeting international climate change commitments, it was pressingly apparent that CCS was an essential part of the arsenal of clean technologies needed to combat climate change.. "The IPCCs report reconfirms the role which carbon capture and technology must play in beating climate change, and the fact that all technologies are necessary.. "As the IPCC has acknowledged, the extreme weather events witnessed around the world over the past few ...
The rate of global mean sea-level rise (~3 mm/yr; SLR) has accelerated compared to the mean of the 20th century (~2 mm/yr), but the rate of rise is locally variable. Factors contributing to SLR include decreased global ice volume and warming of the ocean. On Greenland, the deficiency between annual ice gained and lost tripled between 1996 and 2007. On Antarctica the deficiency increased by 75%. Mountain glaciers are retreating and the cumulative mean thickness change has accelerated from about −1.8 to −4 m in 1965 to 1970 to about −12 to −14 m in the first decade of the 21st century. From 1961 to 2003, ocean temperatures to a depth of 700 m increased and portions of the deeper ocean are warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) projected sea level would reach 0.18 to 0.59 m above present by the end of the 21st century but lacked an estimate of ice flow dynamics calving. Calving was added by Pfeffer et al. (2008) indicating 0.8 to 2 m of SLR by 2100 (favouring the low ...
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations. The traditional approach to climate model evaluation, which is the comparison of a single parameter at a time, identifies symptomatic model biases and errors but fails to diagnose the model problems. The model diagnosis process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons, which typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, and computationally demanding and data-intensive operations. We propose to develop a computationally efficient information system to enable the physics-based multi-variable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. Satellite observations have been widely used in model-data inter-comparisons and model evaluation studies. These studies ...
A major international assessment of climate change adopted here by 110 governments provides conclusive new scientific evidence that human activities are causing unprecedented changes in the Earths climate. Produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988, the report confirms that it is extremely likely (95-100% probability) that most of the warming since 1950 has been due to human influence.
The RCP 8.5 scenario may also become less likely in years to come, even if major polluters like the United States, China, and India never pass muscular climate policy. RCP 8.5 says that the global coal industry will eventually become seven times bigger than it is today. "Its tough to claim that … that is a business-as-usual world," Hausfather says. "Its certainly a possible world, but we also live in a world today where solar is increasingly cheaper than coal.". Thats part of the reason the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will soon expand its list of standard scenarios. Its next major synthesis report, due to be published in 2021, will replace RCPs with five "socioeconomic pathways" that allow for a broader range of futures.. Jackson urged caution. "We dont know yet what scenario were on," he said. "I think most climate scientists will tell you that were below the 8.5 scenario. But every year that emissions increase like they have this year, it makes the 8.5 scenario more ...
The prevalence of kidney stones may rise by 30 percent or more in some U.S. areas if global temperatures rise as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the scientists found. [...] a leading expert on global warmings impact on human health, Dr. Paul Epstein of Harvard Medical School, called the new study an elegant piece of work. Many scientists already think global warming will increase the reach of tropical diseases such as malaria.
The 4th Global Conference on Oceans, Coasts, and Islands will mobilize high-level policy attention, topical working groups, analytical papers, and other contributions to provide a review of progress achieved (or lack thereof) in advancing ecosystem management and integrated coastal and ocean management by 2010 at national and regional (transboundary) levels, and in the 64% of the ocean beyond national jurisdiction, and on the allied goals of reducing marine biodiversity loss by 2010 and of establishing networks of marine protected areas by 2012 (goals adopted by the worlds political leaders at the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development). These goals are considered in the context of climate change, which, as indicated in the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will have profound effects on ecosystems and coastal populations around the world. The conference will be held in Hanoi, Vietnam. The second fastest-growing economy in Asia, Vietnam has made ...
Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has had to walk back on the idea that the worlds glaciers will all be gone within decades due to human-caused carbon powered global warming: but news has now emerged showing that in at least one case human action has absolutely indisputably led to the disappearance of large chunks of glacier.. Chilean media reported last week that plods in Patagonia have arrested a man driving a refrigerated lorry loaded with more than five tonnes of ice allegedly stolen from the Jorge Montt glacier in the Bernardo OHiggins national park. Its theorised that the frosty burglar intended to sell off his haul as designer ice cubes in the capital Santiago.. According to local news service Emol, Chilean prosecutors believe that the truck driver wasnt working alone: he was part of an organised ring of ice bandits headed by an unnamed kingpin residing in Santiago. The stolen lorry-load of glacier lumps is thought to have a street value of around 3 million pesos - ...
Source: Badalyan, Obridko and Sykora. Currently all governments are preparing for warming, Even token statements by the Chinese, who are clearly going to do nothing that will slow economic growth, are about warming. In all cases it is a policy based on the position taken by the national weather office. When Maurice Strong arranged the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) he did it through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which meant the national offices became part of the deception about the causes of global warming and then climate change. It also means all other government departments must plan from their "official" position. Politicians dont or wont challenge the weather departments on the issue because they lose in the eyes of the public if they claim to know more than the experts; even if the experts are scientifically wrong.. The IPCC Science Report proved the false science that human CO2 was the only cause of global warming. Then they produced speculative ...
An important collection of documents has entered the public domain. These are the comments 232 individuals submitted to the committee that investigated the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) earlier this year ...