Currently, there are about 40 to 60 million Americans suffering from Dry Eye Syndrome (DES); this serious public health problem will worsen with the explosive aging population created by baby boomers, where DES has a high incidence. However, the therapeutics for DES are elusive because our understanding of DES is so elementary, especially the correlation between symptoms and the diagnosis. Unfortunately, a quantitative diagnosis, which is the prerequisite to advance the management of DES, is yet to be realized. We are seeking the next breakthrough in DES management by providing a quantitative diagnosis, with the combination of optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging and statistical decision theory. The statistical decision theory is formulated for the specific task of the tear film imaging, thus it will allow the assessment and optimization of the OCT system for such an application. Furthermore, the combination of the statistical decision theory and OCT will show its advantage by taking into ...

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An extended analysis is given of the program, originally suggested by Deutsch, of solving the probability problem in the Everett interpretation by means of decision theory. Deutschs own proof is discussed, and alternatives are presented which are based upon different decision theories and upon Gleasons Theorem. It is argued that decision theory gives Everettians most or all of what they need from `probability. Contact is made with Lewiss Principal Principle linking subjective credence with objective chance: an Everettian Principal Principle is formulated, and shown to be at least as defensible as the usual Principle. Some consequences of (Everettian) quantum mechanics for decision theory itself are also discussed.. ...

The concept of rationality is a common thread through the human and social sciences - from political science to philosophy, from economics to sociology, from management science to decision analysis. But what counts as rational action and rational behavior? This book explores decision theory as a theory of rationality. Decision theory is the mathematical theory of choice and for many social scientists it makes the concept of rationality mathematically tractable and scientifically legitimate. Yet rationality is a concept with several dimensions and the theory of rationality has different roles to play. It plays an action-guiding role (prescribing what counts as a rational solution of a given decision problem). It plays a normative role (giving us the tools to pass judgment not just on how a decision problem was solved, but also on how it was set up in the first place). And it plays a predictive/explanatory role (telling us how rational agents will behave, or why they did what they did). This book shows,

Info-Gap Decision Theory: Decisions Under Severe Uncertainty by Ben-Haim, Yakov available in Hardcover on Powells.com, also read synopsis and reviews. Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses...

Heres a decision theoretic picture of how to make the decision between A and B. First, gain as much knowledge K as is reasonably possible about the laws and present conditions in the universe. The more information, the better our decision is likely to be (cf. Goods Theorem). Then calculate the conditional expected utility of the future given A with K, and do the same for B. Then do the action where the conditional expected utility is higher.. Let U(A,K) and U(B,K) be the two conditional expected utilities. (Note: I mean this to be neutral between causal and epistemic decision theories, but if I have to commit to one, itll be causal.) We want to make our decision on U(A,K) and U(B,K) for the most inclusive K we can.. Now imagine that we could ask an angel for any piece of information I about the present and the laws (e.g., by asking "How many hairs do I have on my head?"), and then form a new set of information K2 including I on which to calculate U(A,K2) and U(B,K2). Then we should ask for as ...

a) Danielle Bassett Complex Systems, Network Science, Computational Neuroscience, Systems Biology, Dynamical Systems, Soft Materials, Behavioral Network Science.. b) Larry Brown Statistical decision theory, Statistical inference, Nonparametric function estimation, Foundations of statistics, Sampling theory (census data), Empirical queueing science.. c) Andreas Buja Multidimensional Scaling, Multivariate Analysis, Statistical Inference after Model Selection, High-Dimensional Data Visualization.. d) Tony Cai High dimensional statistical inference, Nonparametric function estimation, Large-scale multiple testing, Wavelet methodology and applications, Functional data analysis, Statistical decision theory.. e) Dean Foster Variable selection,Learning models,Evolution and games.. f) Ed George Hierarchical modeling, model uncertainty, shrinkage estimation, treed modeling, variable selection, wavelet regression.. g) Phil Gressman Harmonic analysis and geometry.. h) Michael Kearns Machine learning, ...

This compendium aims at providing a comprehensive overview of the main topics that appear in any well-structured course sequence in statistics for business and economics at the undergraduate and MBA levels. The idea is to supplement either formal or informal statistic textbooks such as, e.g., "Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers" by D.K. Hildebrand and R.L. Ott and "The Practice of Business Statistics: Using Data for Decisions" by D.S. Moore, G.P. McCabe, W.M. Duckworth and S.L. Sclove, with a summary of theory as well as with a couple of extra examples. ...

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The design and operation of water resource systems are affected to a great extent by the uncertainty of future events, as stressed throughout this text. In spite of the immense variability in the...

This paper introduces a logical analysis of convex combinations within the framework of Łukasiewicz real-valued logic. This provides a natural link between the fields of many-valued logics and...

With the rapid increase in number and size of junior colleges, administrators must take advantage of the decision-making tools already used in business and industry. This study investigated how these quantitative techniques could be applied to junior college problems. A survey of 195 California junior college administrators found that the problems for which technical help would be most welcome were (1) projecting enrollment, plant, and staff needs, (2) scheduling use of staff and facilities, (3) registration and enrollment, (4) organization, communications, and personnel relations, (5) selection of staff, (6) particular phases of curriculum, counseling, instruction, finance, admissions, and student activities. Specific techniques considered here were linear and dynamic programming, queueing and game theory, Monte Carlo and computer simulation, symbolic logic, matrix algebra, statistical decision theory, quality control charts and sampling plans, factor analysis, and PERT (Program

Signal detection theory, as developed in electrical engineering and based on statistical decision theory, was first applied to human sensory discrimination about 40 years ago. The theorys intent was to explain how humans discriminate and how we might use reliable measures to quantify this ability.

Books by Lucien M. Le Cam, Théorie asymptotique de la décision statistique, Asymptotic methods in statistical decision theory, Asymptotics in statistics, Locally asymptotically normal families of distributions, Convergence in distribution of stochastic processes, On some asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimates and related Bayes estimates

The Diffusion of Accounting Innovations in the New Public Sector as Influenced by IMF Reforms: Actor-Network Theory: 10.4018/IJANTTI.2016100103: This paper aims to explain the diffusion of management accounting innovations within the public sector in Jordan as influenced by IMF reforms. It is concerned

Downloadable! In decision theory, incommensurabilities among conflicting decision criteria are typically handled by multicriteria optimization methods such as Pareto efficiency and mean-variance analysis. In econometrics and statistics, where conflicting model criteria replace conflicting decision criteria, probability assessments are routinely used to transform disparate model discrepancy terms into apparently commensurable quantities. This tactic has both strengths and weaknesses. On the plus side, it permits the construction of a single real-valued measure of theory and data incompatibility in the form of a likelihood function or a posterior probability distribution. On the minus side, the amalgamation of conceptually distinct model discrepancy terms into a single real-valued incompatibility measure can make it difficult to untangle the true source of any diagnosed model specification problem. This paper discusses recent theoretical and empirical work on a multicriteria ``flexible least squares

... One of the factors that limits application of probabilistic reliability to engineering design is the arbitrariness with which probability distribution may be chosen. The problem is particularly severe when high reliability is demanded and information is scarce, e.g., in selecting tail probability laws for load and resistance variables. At the origin of this arbitrariness is the attempt to select models through inference procedures, i.e., solely on the basis of physical and statistical information. The problem is, by its very nature, one of decision making and should be resolved through methods of decision theory. If this is done, then a number of interesting facts emerge: (1)The optimal distribution is also defined under conditions of extreme uncertainty; (2)the optimal distribution is less sensitive to statistical sample variations than the distribution obtained by inference procedures; and (3)with limited statistical information, optimal distributions

13.1 Individual decision making in the face of risk 13.2 Option price and option value 13.3 Risk and irreversibility 13.4 Environmental cost-benefit analysis revisited 13.5 Decision theory: choices under uncertainty 13.6 A safe minimum standard of conservation. Slideshow 1356617 by kaori

Preface. 1. Introduction.. 1.1 Two Examples.. 1.1.1 Public School Class Sizes.. 1.1.2 Value at Risk.. 1.2 Observables, Unobservables, and Objects of Interest.. 1.3 Conditioning and Updating.. 1.4 Simulators.. 1.5 Modeling.. 1.6 Decisionmaking.. 2. Elements of Bayesian Inference.. 2.1 Basics.. 2.2 Sufficiency, Ancillarity, and Nuisance Parameters.. 2.2.1 Sufficiency.. 2.2.2 Ancillarity.. 2.2.3 Nuisance Parameters.. 2.3 Conjugate Prior Distributions.. 2.4 Bayesian Decision Theory and Point Estimation.. 2.5 Credible Sets.. 2.6 Model Comparison.. 2.6.1 Marginal Likelihoods.. 2.6.2 Predictive Densities.. 3. Topics in Bayesian Inference.. 3.1 Hierarchical Priors and Latent Variables.. 3.2 Improper Prior Distributions.. 3.3 Prior Robustness and the Density Ratio Class.. 3.4 Asymptotic Analysis.. 3.5 The Likelihood Principle.. 4. Posterior Simulation.. 4.1 Direct Sampling,.. 4.2 Acceptance and Importance Sampling.. 4.2.1 Acceptance Sampling.. 4.2.2 Importance Sampling.. 4.3 Markov Chain Monte ...

Newcombs Problem. A central problem in decision theory. Imagine an agent that understands psychology well enough to predict your decisions in advance, and decides to either fill two boxes with money, or fill one box, based on their prediction. They put $1,000 in a transparent box no matter what, and they then put $1 million in an opaque box if (and only if) they predicted that youd only take the opaque box. The predictor tells you about this, and then leaves. Which do you pick? If you take both boxes, you get only the $1000, because the predictor foresaw your choice and didnt fill the opaque box. On the other hand, if you only take the opaque box, you come away with $1M. So it seems like you should take only the opaque box. However, many people object to this strategy on the grounds that you cant causally control what the predictor did in the past; the predictor has already made their decision at the time when you make yours, and regardless of whether or not they placed the $1M in the opaque ...

The qualifications and skills obtained during master programs often hardly prepare students to conduct eye-tracking studies, to avoid potential pitfalls when using the eye-tracking equipment and to analyze the complex eye-tracking datasets. Especially in the beginning of a PhD project these challenges appear to be overwhelming. PhD students completing the course will gain an overview of research in the field of bottom-up and top-down attentional process and search in decision-making. We will give an overview on latest developments in the field, including learning and contextual biases in decision sequences and the evaluation of decision theories. From a practical perspective PhD students will get insight in the process of setting up eye-tracking experiments, conducting a first empirical study on their own and analyzing an eye-tracking dataset. PhD students will have the opportunity to use remote eye-tracking devices together with their own laptops and use the provided software to analyze their ...

g. The distance between Gainesville, Florida, and all Florida cities with a population of atleast 50,000.. What are the requirements (or characteristics) for the binomial and Poisson? Under what conditions will the binomial and the Poisson distributions give roughly the same results? Show with an example.. What is decision theory? What is the difference between a payoff table and an expected payoff table? In the following payoff table, let P(S1) = 0.30, P(S2) = 0.50, and P(S3) = 0.20. Compute the expected monetary value for each of the alternatives. What decision would you recommend?. A foreman thinks that the low efficiency of the machine tool operators is directly linked to the high level of fumes emitted in the workshop. He would like to prove this to his supervisor through a research study.. 1. Would this be a causal or a correlational study? Why?. 2. Is this an exploratory, descriptive, or hypothesis-testing (analytical or predictive) study? Why?. 3. What kind of a study would this be: ...

How do we make decisions? Conventional decision theory tells us only which behavioral choices we ought to make if we follow certain axioms. In real life, however, our choices are governed by cognitive mechanisms shaped over evolutionary time through the process of natural selection. Evolution has created strong biases in how and when we process information, and it is these evolved cognitive building blocks-from signal detection and memory to individual and social learning-that provide the foundation for our choices ...

CiteSeerX - Document Details (Isaac Councill, Lee Giles, Pradeep Teregowda): This paper surveys the field of reinforcement learning from a computer-science perspective. It is written to be accessible to researchers familiar with machine learning. Both the historical basis of the field and a broad selection of current work are summarized. Reinforcement learning is the problem faced by an agent that learns behavior through trial-and-error interactions with a dynamic environment. The work described here has a resemblance to work in psychology, but differs considerably in the details and in the use of the word reinforcement. The paper discusses central issues of reinforcement learning, including trading off exploration and exploitation, establishing the foundations of the field via Markov decision theory, learning from delayed reinforcement, constructing empirical models to accelerate learning, making use of generalization and hierarchy, and coping with hidden state. It concludes with a survey of some

Aaronson, Scott (2004) Is Quantum Mechanics An Island in Theoryspace? [Preprint] Aaronson, Scott (2011) Why Philosophers Should Care About Computational Complexity. [Preprint] Afriat, Alexander (2002) Altering the remote past. [Preprint] Afriat, Alexander (2004) Duhem, Quine and the other dogma. [Preprint] Afriat, Alexander (2008) Duhem, Quine and the other dogma. [Preprint] Afriat, Alexander (2004) If Bertlmann had three feet. [Preprint] Afriat, Alexander (2013) Is the world made of loops? [Preprint] Afriat, Alexander (2012) Logic of gauge. [Preprint] Ahmed, Arif and Caulton, Adam (2014) Causal Decision Theory and EPR correlations. [Preprint] Allori, Valia (2015) How to Make Sense of Quantum Mechanics(and More):Fundamental Physical Theories and Primitive Ontology. [Preprint] Allori, Valia (2012) On the Metaphysics of Quantum Mechanics. [Preprint] Allori, Valia (2012) Primitive Ontology and the Structure of Fundamental Physical Theories. [Preprint] Allori, Valia and Goldstein, Sheldon and ...

Patrick Colonel Suppes (/ˈsʊpɪs/; March 17, 1922 - November 17, 2014) was an American philosopher who made significant contributions to philosophy of science, the theory of measurement, the foundations of quantum mechanics, decision theory, psychology and educational technology. He was the Lucie Stern Professor of Philosophy Emeritus at Stanford University and until January 2010 was the Director of the Education Program for Gifted Youth also at Stanford. Suppes was born on March 17, 1922, in Tulsa, Oklahoma. He grew up as an only child, later with a half brother George who was born in 1943 after Patrick had entered the army. His grandfather, C.E. Suppes, had moved to Oklahoma from Ohio. Suppes father and grandfather were independent oil men. His mother died when he was a young boy. He was raised by his stepmother, who married his father before he was six years old. His parents did not have much formal education. Suppes began college at the University of Oklahoma in 1939, but transferred to ...

Lecture, three hours; discussion, one hour; laboratory, one hour. Requisite: course 115A, 164, 170A and Programming in Computing 10A. An introductory course on mathematical models for pattern recognition and machine learning. Topics include parametric and non-parametric probability distributions, the curse of dimensionality, correlation analysis and dimensionality reduction, and concepts of decision theory. Advanced machine learning and pattern recognition problems including data classification and clustering, regression, kernel methods, artificial neural networks, hidden Markov models and Markov random fields. Projects will be in Matlab that will a part of the final project presented in class. P/NP or letter grading.. ...

Hanspeter Schaudig is an with a many report in the happiness and chance of Babylonia and Assyria in the relational Author BCE. As his download decision theory and rationality he was a theoretical writing of the scholars of Nabonidus and Cyrus the Great. His patristic , Explaining database, is provided and will help escalated First. It brings with particular authors and periodicals, and how the Babylonians was Names as 8:5-8a download joy division.. download organising knowledge. taxonomies, knowledge and organisational effectiveness or the para of Babylonia by Kutir-Nahhunte and later by Sennacherib was influenced and found into a necessary access that needed Babylonia to object the clearinghouse that its primary religion, be it Enlil or Marduk, even talked the prophetic document, sometimes in regulations of nationalism. Rephaim) in Sheol, who see their download entropy based parameter estimation in on the divination. After 14:1-2, an Contra family, 14:3-4a is the dictionary. 433 See Williamson ...

Endeavour 4: 92-96 20a. Chang PL (1988) Urodynamic studies in acupuncture for women with frequency, urgency and dysuria. J Urol 140: 563-566 21. Chapman CR, Benedetti C (1977) Analgesia following TENS and its partial reversal by a narcotic antagonist. Life Sci 21: 1645-1648 22. Chapman CR, Chen AC, Bonica 11 (1977) Effects of intrasegmental electrical acupuncture on dental pain: evaluation by threshold estimation and sensory decision theory. Pain 3: 213-227 23. Chapman CR, Colpitts YM et al (1980) Evoked potential assessment of acupuncture analgesia: attempted reversal with naloxone. Preliminary results [174] indicate that insertion of acupuncture needles into the skin might also produce a current of injury which has biological influences on the underlying tissues. -LA) promote nerve growth in the leg of an adult rat when applied through acupuncture needles [118, 145, 154]. 4 above) [216]. Perhaps the current of injury caused by needling (and generated by the 20 to 90-mV resting potential across ...

For any norm Nk that we institute, there is a prior norm Nk − 1 that specifies that when the acts of institution of Nk are performed, then Nk has such-and-such force.. On pain of a regress incompatible with the empirical facts of humanitys finite past, any instituted norm must be grounded in an uninstituted norm. What are these uninstituted norms like?. Are they specific to our human nature or do they apply to all rational beings or are some of one sort and some of the other? Thinking about some issues in ethics, language, epistemology and decision theory has made me think that it is likely that at least some of the uninstituted norms are specific to human nature rather than to all rational beings.. Also, what types of norms are the uninstituted norms, and how do they relate to the types of norms that they ground? For instance, are instituted linguistic norms grounded in uninstituted linguistic norms or in some other kinds of norms, say moral ones?. For those of us who love theoretical ...

Yves here. Some readers questioned the discussion of Bitcoins deflationary qualities in a recent post, so this discussion is a useful follow-on. By Dan Kervick, who does research in decision theory and analytic metaphysics. Cross posted from New Economic Perspectives. I appeared today on The Attitude, broadcast by WNHN 94.7 in Concord, New Hampshire, to talk with host Arnie Arnesen about the Bitcoin phenomenon. The podcast of the second hour of the show can be accessed at the link below. My appearance occurs right at the beginning of the hour:. The Attitude - Bitcoin. The purpose of our brief discussion was just to provide some general background information for Arnies listeners about Bitcoin, including what bitcoins are and why anyone would buy them or accept them in exchange for goods and services. We touched on several topics related to the Bitcoin phenomenon, but there is one very peculiar and puzzling feature of Bitcoin that we didnt get to discuss and that seems especially important to ...

Presented under the auspices of the Special Focus on Algorithmic Decision Theory, the Special Focus on Information Sharing and Dynamic Data Analysis and in partnership with the European Consortium ALGODEC ...

What if there is no strong evidence that God exists? Is belief in God when faced with a lack of evidence illegitimate and improper? Evidentialism answers yes. According to Evidentialism, it is impermissible to believe any proposition lacking adequate evidence. And, if any thesis enjoys the status of a dogma among philosophers, it is Evidentialism. Presenting a direct challenge to Evidentialism are pragmatic arguments for theism, which are designed to support belief in the absence of adequate evidence. Pascals Wager is the most prominent theistic pragmatic argument, and issues in epistemology, the ethics of belief, and decision theory, as well as philosophical theology, all intersect at the Wager. This book explores various theistic pragmatic arguments and the objections employed against them. It presents a new version of the Wager, the so-called Jamesian Wager, and argues that this survives the objections hurled against theistic pragmatic arguments and provides strong support for theistic belief.

The intention of this subject is to develop students understanding of economic and statistical approaches to decision-making in the business environment. As such it deals with the theory of the firm, some relevant aspects of macroeconomics, problems of measurement, data sources and the use of time series. Topics covered are: economic systems; market structure; macroeconomic aspects of the firm; applications of regression in business; long and short term forecasting of time series; technological view of the firm; transaction costs view of the firm; new classical theory of the firm; three-domain model of the firm. ...

This course teaches you how to use analysis of variance and regression methods to analyze data with a single continuous response variable. You learn how to perform elementary exploratory data analysis (EDA) and discover natural patterns in data. Important statistical concepts such as confidence intervals are also introduced.

This course teaches you how to use analysis of variance and regression methods to analyze data with a single continuous response variable. You learn how to perform elementary exploratory data analysis (EDA) and discover natural patterns in data. Important statistical concepts such as confidence intervals are also introduced.

Willis John Potts (March 22, 1895 - May 5, 1968) was an American pediatric surgeon and one of the earliest physicians to focus on the surgical treatment of heart problems in children. Potts set up one of the countrys early pediatric surgery programs at Childrens Memorial Hospital in Chicago. A graduate of the University of Chicago and Rush Medical College, Potts was known for introducing a surgery to address the heart defects that resulted in blue baby syndrome; the procedure became known as the Potts shunt. In addition, Potts performed the first successful repair of a cardiovascular abnormality known as a pulmonary artery sling. He also invented several surgical instruments, with a particular emphasis on devices that allowed for safe surgery on major blood vessels. Potts remained a surgeon at Childrens Memorial Hospital and a faculty member at the Northwestern University Medical School well into the 1960s. He retired to Sarasota, Florida, where he died of a heart attack in 1968. Born in 1895 ...

Introduction to modern business statistics, emphasizing problem solving applications through statistical decision making using case studies. Topics include organization and presentation of data, summary statistics, distributions, statistical inference including estimation, and hypothesis testing. prereq: minimum 30 credits, LSBE student, pre-business or pre-accounting or Econ BA major or Graphic Design and Marketing major or Graphic Design with Marketing subplan major or Econ minor or Accounting minor or Business Admin minor; credit will not be granted if already received for Econ 2020, Stat 1411, Stat 2411, Stat 3611, Soc 3151, Psy ...

Course Objectives: By the end of this course the student will be able to use techniques related to various statistical procedures in order to develop their understanding of statistical analysis and interpretation, statistical decision making and learn techniques for estimation ...

Bayesian statistical decision theory--Data processingHuman gene mappingLinkage (Genetics)Alcoholism--Genetic aspectsGeneticsBiometryMedical sciences ...

An introductory chapter the dialogue between emerging pedagogies and emerging technologies is by B. Gros and sets the scene for the book and provides overviews of each chapter. Some of the changes: learner-centred, individual and social learning; personalised and tailor-made learning; innovative pedagogical concepts - experiential and immersive learning and social and cognitive process; formal institutions will need to be flexible and dynamic; and education and training made available and accessible to all citizens. Introduces the emerging theories of learning: theories focused on the network (networked learning, connectivism, actor-network theory); theories focused on social-personal interaction (heutagogy, peerology); and theories focused on the design of network (Learning as a Network - LaaN). ). LaaN combines aspects of connectivism, complexity theory and double-loop learning. Learning is envisaged to be a personal network of knowledge attained through interactions with the ecological ...

Dog walking enables physical activity and positive social interactions, but uncontrolled dogs as well as dog feces can foster conflict and deter physical activity, for both dog owners and nonowners. This case study shows that previously reported associations with dogs (both positive and negative) can be linked to the wording and the day-to-day implementation of, or incompliance with, local governments bylaws on pets. In this example of posthumanist health promotion, the policy goal is to optimize the overall impact on well-being of pet animals. Analytically, the case study draws together insights from actor-network theory, Foucaults theory of governmentality, Bourdieus theory of habitus, and anthrozoology (i.e. the study of human-animal interactions as well as related ideas and norms). Posthumanist health promotion is a theoretically informed approach that can assist in developing policy and implementation strategies, not only on pets but on a range of topics.

Krystalynn Potts at U.S. Geological Survey Contact Details - find the Job Title, Phone#, Email Address, Social Profiles (Including Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter) and the list of co-workers of Krystalynn Potts at U.S. Geological Survey, and much more!

This paper suggests a behavioral definition of (subjective) ambiguity in an abstract setting where objects of choice are Savage-style acts. Then axioms are described that deliver probabilistic sophistication of preference on the set of unambiguous acts. In particular, both the domain and the values of the decision-makers probability measure are derived from preference. It is argued that the noted result also provides a decision-theoretic foundation for the Knightian distinction between risk and ambiguity.

This course will cover a broad spectrum of planning algorithms, including motion planning, discrete planning, planning under uncertainty, and decision-theoretic planning The course will be relevant to researcher in robotics, AI, algorithms, computational geometry and computer graphics The course will be a mix of lectures, discussions and student presentations. Students will be evaluated based on their class participation, demonstrated ability to read and understand technical papers, assignments, and a final project. ...

two long related comments: 1) Why not use the priors for the particular days you will be visiting (I guess the chance of rain varies significantly over the year)? But then why not use as a prior the conditional probability of rain in Seattle given the atmospheric conditions at the moment? Or even, why not commission specific research to inform your prior: why stop at consulting the Western Regional Climate Center or the weather forecast? You can say - not worth it for the problem at hand, but this requires a separate analysis of how much effort it is worth spending on establishing a good prior for this problem. In our case, the answer is probably close to zero, as the costs of taking an umbrella are negligible. But then for somebody with zero knowledge about the weather in Seattle a flat prior of rain/no rain, or equivalently a frequentest analysis, would seem as justified as any other. 2) Which brings me to the second point. The problem is introduced as a decision-theoretic one (bring an ...

two long related comments: 1) Why not use the priors for the particular days you will be visiting (I guess the chance of rain varies significantly over the year)? But then why not use as a prior the conditional probability of rain in Seattle given the atmospheric conditions at the moment? Or even, why not commission specific research to inform your prior: why stop at consulting the Western Regional Climate Center or the weather forecast? You can say - not worth it for the problem at hand, but this requires a separate analysis of how much effort it is worth spending on establishing a good prior for this problem. In our case, the answer is probably close to zero, as the costs of taking an umbrella are negligible. But then for somebody with zero knowledge about the weather in Seattle a flat prior of rain/no rain, or equivalently a frequentest analysis, would seem as justified as any other. 2) Which brings me to the second point. The problem is introduced as a decision-theoretic one (bring an ...

We study a variant of the ferromagnetic Potts model, recently introduced by Tamura, Tanaka and Kawashima, consisting of a ferromagnetic interaction among q "visible" colors along with the presence of r non-interacting "invisible" colors. We introduce a random-cluster representation for the model, for which we prove the existence of a ... read more first-order transition for any q , 0, as long as r is large enough. When q , 1, the low-temperature regime displays a q-fold symmetry breaking. The proof involves a Pirogov-Sinai analysis applied to this random-cluster representation of the model. Read More: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0129055X12500043 show less ...

Researchers have found that chimps tend to use these forms of violence to gain territory. Potts said these behaviors are a low-risk strategy to be able to increase resources in order to better reproduce, suggesting that these are evolved behaviors.. "Evolution is not about what is good, just or moral. It is about what works," he said.. Potts pointed out how the first "Ice Man" was found with an arrow in his back and three different blood groups on his body. He argued against the popular view that this must have been "some poor Shepard that lost his way," saying the man was more likely someone who "was involved in killing other people and was killed himself.". Potts suggested that, contrary to popular belief adopted by the American Anthropological Association and the American Sociological Association, humans are not generally nice, peaceful creatures.. Potts discussed a survey that asked a sample of men whether they would rape a woman if they had the opportunity to do so without consequence. ...

To examine the relative utility of CMCM versus RNAi and known null mutations, Xue et al developed lines that ubiquitously expressed guide RNAs targeted to 6 different genes, each marked with RFP. Cas9 expression was placed under the control of UAS, marked with GFP. RFP/GFP progeny were then crossed to a number of different red eye marked driver lines, expressing Gal4 in the testes, ovaries, wings or eyes.. To summarise their results, CMCM silencing phenotypes were at least comparable to RNAi based approaches in all six gene targets, and was clearly superior when analysing testes specific phentoypes. The effects were shown to be specific by observing morphological changes only in the expected tissues in Notch mutants using wing and eye specific driver lines. This was also backed up by genomic DNA sequencing of isolated tissues from these mutants.. Phenotype severity could be increased by including multiple gRNA targets in one construct, as well as by keeping flies at 28ºC (known to increase Gal4 ...