Uncertainty
Bayes Theorem
A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result.
Models, Statistical
Clinical Chemistry Tests
Models, Theoretical
Monte Carlo Method
In statistics, a technique for numerically approximating the solution of a mathematical problem by studying the distribution of some random variable, often generated by a computer. The name alludes to the randomness characteristic of the games of chance played at the gambling casinos in Monte Carlo. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, 1993)
Decision Theory
Decision Making
Algorithms
Computer Simulation
Cost-Benefit Analysis
A method of comparing the cost of a program with its expected benefits in dollars (or other currency). The benefit-to-cost ratio is a measure of total return expected per unit of money spent. This analysis generally excludes consideration of factors that are not measured ultimately in economic terms. Cost effectiveness compares alternative ways to achieve a specific set of results.
Radiometry
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
Models, Biological
Reproducibility of Results
The statistical reproducibility of measurements (often in a clinical context), including the testing of instrumentation or techniques to obtain reproducible results. The concept includes reproducibility of physiological measurements, which may be used to develop rules to assess probability or prognosis, or response to a stimulus; reproducibility of occurrence of a condition; and reproducibility of experimental results.
Markov Chains
Radiotherapy Planning, Computer-Assisted
Calibration
Models, Economic
Risk Assessment
Climate Change
Any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer). It may result from natural factors such as changes in the sun's intensity, natural processes within the climate system such as changes in ocean circulation, or human activities.
Data Interpretation, Statistical
Conservation of Natural Resources
Decision Support Techniques
Likelihood Functions
Baltic States
Environmental Monitoring
Signal Detection, Psychological
Sensitivity and Specificity
Radiotherapy Setup Errors
Stochastic Processes
Fuzzy Logic
Approximate, quantitative reasoning that is concerned with the linguistic ambiguity which exists in natural or synthetic language. At its core are variables such as good, bad, and young as well as modifiers such as more, less, and very. These ordinary terms represent fuzzy sets in a particular problem. Fuzzy logic plays a key role in many medical expert systems.
Forecasting
Reference Standards
Body Burden
Climate
Ecosystem
Atmosphere
Four-Dimensional Computed Tomography
Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
Bias (Epidemiology)
Any deviation of results or inferences from the truth, or processes leading to such deviation. Bias can result from several sources: one-sided or systematic variations in measurement from the true value (systematic error); flaws in study design; deviation of inferences, interpretations, or analyses based on flawed data or data collection; etc. There is no sense of prejudice or subjectivity implied in the assessment of bias under these conditions.
Therapeutic Equipoise
Cues
Technology Assessment, Biomedical
Environmental Exposure
Chamaemelum
Models, Genetic
Greenhouse Effect
Health outcomes and managed care: discussing the hidden issues. (1/927)
Too often the debate over health outcomes and managed care has glossed over a series of complex social, political, and ethical issues. Exciting advances in outcomes research have raised hopes for logical medical reform. However, science alone will not optimize our patients' health, since value judgements are necessary and integral parts of attempts to improve health outcomes within managed care organizations. Therefore, to form healthcare policy that is both fair and efficient, we must examine the fundamental values and ethical concerns that are imbedded in our efforts to shape care. We must openly discuss the hidden issues including: (1) trade-offs between standardization of care and provider-patient autonomy; (2) effects of financial incentives on physicians' professionalism; (3) opportunity costs inherent in the design of insurance plans; (4) responsibilities of managed care plans for the health of the public; (5) judicious and valid uses of data systems; and (6) the politics of uncertainty. (+info)Impact of therapeutic research on informed consent and the ethics of clinical trials: a medical oncology perspective. (2/927)
PURPOSE: To create a more meaningful understanding of the informed consent process as it has come to be practiced and regulated in clinical trials, this discussion uses the experience gained from the conduct of therapeutic research that involves cancer patients. DESIGN: After an introduction of the ethical tenets of the consent process in clinical research that involves potentially vulnerable patients as research subjects, background that details the use of written consent documents and of the term "informed consent" is provided. Studies from the cancer setting that examine the inadequacies of written consent documents, and the outcome of the consent process itself, are reviewed. Two ethically challenging areas of cancer clinical research, the phase I trial and the randomized controlled trial, are discussed briefly as a means of highlighting many dilemmas present in clinical trials. Before concluding, areas for future research are discussed. RESULTS: Through an exclusive cancer research perspective, many current deficiencies in the informed consent process for therapeutic clinical trials can be critically examined. Also, new directions for improvements and areas of further research can be outlined and discussed objectively. The goals of such improvements and research should be prevention of further misguided or ineffective efforts to regulate the informed consent process. CONCLUSION: To ignore this rich and interesting perspective potentially contributes to continued misunderstanding and apathy toward fulfilling the regulatory and ethically obligatory requirements involved in an essential communication process between a clinician-investigator and a potentially vulnerable patient who is considering clinical trial participation. (+info)Towards a feasible model for shared decision making: focus group study with general practice registrars. (3/927)
OBJECTIVES: To explore the views of general practice registrars about involving patients in decisions and to assess the feasibility of using the shared decision making model by means of simulated general practice consultations. DESIGN: Qualitative study based on focus group interviews. SETTING: General practice vocational training schemes in south Wales. PARTICIPANTS: 39 general practice registrars and eight course organisers (acting as observers) attended four sessions; three simulated patients attended each time. METHOD: After an introduction to the principles and suggested stages of shared decision making the registrars conducted and observed a series of consultations about choices of treatment with simulated patients using verbal, numerical, and graphical data formats. Reactions were elicited by using focus group interviews after each consultation and content analysis undertaken. RESULTS: Registrars in general practice report not being trained in the skills required to involve patients in clinical decisions. They had a wide range of opinions about "involving patients in decisions," ranging from protective paternalism ("doctor knows best"), through enlightened self interest (lightening the load), to the potential rewards of a more egalitarian relationship with patients. The work points to three contextual precursors for the process: the availability of reliable information, appropriate timing of the decision making process, and the readiness of patients to accept an active role in their own management. CONCLUSIONS: Sharing decisions entails sharing the uncertainties about the outcomes of medical processes and involves exposing the fact that data are often unavailable or not known; this can cause anxiety to both patient and clinician. Movement towards further patient involvement will depend on both the skills and the attitudes of professionals, and this work shows the steps that need to be taken if further progress is to be made in this direction. (+info)Ethnicity, bioethics, and prenatal diagnosis: the amniocentesis decisions of Mexican-origin women and their partners. (4/927)
Bioethical standards and counseling techniques that regulate prenatal diagnosis in the United States were developed at a time when the principal constituency for fetal testing was a self-selected group of White, well-informed, middle-class women. The routine use of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) testing, which has become widespread since the mid-1980s, introduced new constituencies to prenatal diagnosis. These new constituencies include ethnic minority women, who, with the exception of women from certain Asian groups, refuse amniocentesis at significantly higher rates than others. This study examines the considerations taken into account by a group of Mexican-origin women who had screened positive for AFP and were deciding whether to undergo amniocentesis. We reviewed 379 charts and interviewed 147 women and 120 partners to test a number of factors that might explain why some women accept amniocentesis and some refuse. A woman's attitudes toward doctors, medicine, and prenatal care and her assessment of the risk and uncertainty associated with the procedure were found to be most significant. Case summaries demonstrate the indeterminacy of the decision-making process. We concluded that established bioethical principles and counseling techniques need to be more sensitive to the way ethnic minority clients make their amniocentesis choices. (+info)Autonomy, rationality and the wish to die. (5/927)
Although suicide has traditionally carried a negative sanction in Western societies, this is now being challenged, and while there remains substantial public concern surrounding youth and elder suicide, there is a paradoxical push to relax the prohibition under certain circumstances. Central to the arguments behind this are the principles of respect for autonomy and the importance of rationality. It is argued here that the concepts of rationality and autonomy, while valuable, are not strong enough to substantiate a categorical "right to suicide" and that the concepts of "understandability" and "respect" are more useful and able to provide the foundation for responding to a person expressing a wish to die. Roman suicide, sometimes held as an example of "rational suicide", illustrates the effects of culture, tradition and values on the attitudes to, and the practice of, suicide. (+info)Fraud, misconduct or normal science in medical research--an empirical study of demarcation. (6/927)
OBJECTIVES: To study and describe how a group of senior researchers and a group of postgraduate students perceived the so-called "grey zone" between normal scientific practice and obvious misconduct. DESIGN: A questionnaire concerning various practices including dishonesty and obvious misconduct. The answers were obtained by means of a visual analogue scale (VAS). The central (two quarters) of the VAS were designated as a grey zone. SETTING: A Swedish medical faculty. SURVEY SAMPLE: 30 senior researchers and 30 postgraduate students. RESULTS: Twenty of the senior researchers and 25 of the postgraduate students answered the questionnaire. In five cases out of 14 the senior researchers' median was found to be clearly within the interval of the grey zone, compared with three cases for the postgraduate students. Three examples of experienced misconduct were provided. Compared with postgraduate students, established researchers do not call for more research ethical guidelines and restrictions. CONCLUSION: Although the results indicate that consensus exists regarding certain obvious types of misconduct the response pattern also indicates that there is no general consensus on several procedures. (+info)Live attenuated vaccine trials in medically informed volunteers: a special case? (7/927)
A group of activist clinicians have offered to volunteer for clinical trials of live attenuated HIV vaccines. This has provided an important conceptual challenge to medical ethics, and to work on the development of HIV vaccines. In exploring these issues, this article highlights how the HIV field has altered the content as well as the tone of ethical discourse. The balance of expertise and authority between research subjects and triallists is profoundly changed, raising questions about the limits of voluntarism and differing perspectives on risk-benefit analysis. Care is needed to ensure that the novelty of the situation does not confuse the central ethical and scientific issues. (+info)The man who claimed to be a paedophile. (8/927)
A psychiatrist recounts a case of a man presenting with severe depression who claimed to have abused children and his pet dog. Clinical management of the case hinged on whether this claim was true, a lie or delusional. The uncertainty over this raised complex ethical dilemmas regarding confidentiality and protection of the public (and animals). (+info)
Geostatistical modelling for the quantification of uncertainties on the unsatured zone and the groundwater transfer - MINES...
Ginsburgs death casts fresh uncertainty on the Affordable Care Acts future - News Headlines Updated 24 Hours a Day
DxQI 2021 Grantees - Society to Improve Diagnosis in Medicine
Stochastic uncertainty analysis of damage evolution computed through microstructure-property relations<...
Reporting and analyzing statistical uncertainties in Monte Carlo-based treatment planning<...
Uncertainty analysis for the classification of multispectral satellite images using SVMs and SOMs
Impact of surface parameter uncertainties on the development of a trough in the Fram Strait region - RIES - 2010 - Tellus A -...
Utvärdering av Leicas multistations och laserskanners mätosäkerheter
Fuel Use and CO2 Emissions Under Uncertainty From Light-Duty Vehicles in the U.S. to 2050 | Journal of Energy Resources...
Bilingualism: A Neurocognitive Exercise in Managing Uncertainty | Neurobiology of Language | MIT Press
A novel approach to parameter uncertainty analysis of hydrological models using neural networks<...
A new didactic approach to statistical analysis of measurement data for the evaluation of measurement uncertainty - SAM-EMU<...
Measurement Uncertainty & ISO/IEC 17025 Consulting - isobudgets
The impact of heterogeneity and uncertainty on prediction of response to therapy using dynamic MRI data. - Oxford Neuroscience
PetroMod Quantification of Uncertainty Analyses in Petroleum Systems Modeling
Bipolar disorder: clinical uncertainty, evidence-based medicine and large-scale randomised trials. - Department of Psychiatry
Uncertainty on evapotranspiration formulation and its hydrological implication under climate change over France - Institut...
Staff View: Fuzzy uncertainty analysis in the flutter boundary of an aircraft wing subjected to a thrust force
Businesses face uncertainty on health care costs - Joyce Rosenberg - telegram.com - Worcester, MA
Uncertainty on the Use of Aldosterone Antagonists for Primary Therapy for Sudden Cardiac Death in the Setting of Implanted...
Uncertainty on long-term efficacy of osteoarthritis medicines | Research briefing | Pharmaceutical Journal
Attacks On Saudi Oil Facilities Cast A Huge Shadow Of Uncertainty On the Oil Market
NHESS - Abstract - An analysis of uncertainties and skill in forecasts of winter storm losses
Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation: Some Theory and Empirics
Uncertainty quantification - Wikipedia
Search Results - - 9 Results - Digital Library
Search Results - - 9 Results - Digital Library
Uncertainty Analysis | Physics Forums - The Fusion of Science and Community
Managing Uncertainties in Interactive Systems: Computer Science & IT Book Chapter | IGI Global
Managing Uncertainty Podcast - Episode #57: Red Teaming - Bryghtpath
Different Approaches for Digestion, Performance Assessment and Measurement Uncertainty for the Analysis of Cadmium and Lead in...
Table of Contents: Traceability, Validation and Measurement Uncertainty in Chemistry: Vol. 3
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to evaluate natural night ventilation design in an office building | AIVC
global economic uncertainties in management
ACCURACY EVALUATION FOR THE NON-CONTACT DEFECT AREA MEASUREMENT AT THE COMPLEX-SHAPE SURFACES UNDER VIDEOENDOSCOPIC CONTROL....
IEEE/IEC P61869-105 - IEEE/IEC Draft Recommended Practice for Uncertainty Evaluation in the Calibration of Instrument...
Land Conversion Pace under Uncertainty and Irreversibility: too fast or too slow?
One More Victory Scored Over Uncertainty In Quantum Physics Measurements - Redorbit
Decision Support Tools & Uncertainty Analysis Services
Simulations and pre-experiment uncertainty analyses for a hydrogen diffusion experiment using a two side purged membrane setup
Uncertainty analysis for the determination of permeability and specific storage from the pulse-transient technique<...
Uncertainty in the magnitude of aerosol-cloud radiative forcing over recent decades - White Rose Research Online
Changes in Employment Uncertainty and the Fertility Intention-Realization Link: An Analysis Based on the Swiss Household Panel ...
Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Human Motion Dynamics Simulations
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TUprints
A Method for Online Calibration of MAAP Simulations in a Severe Accident Management System Database | ICONE | ASME Digital...
Probability Management for Water Finance and Resource Managers
| The Water Research Foundation
Uncertainty in illness among patients with multiple sclerosis
| Journal of Public Health, Nursing and Medical Rescue
A hierarchical Naïve Bayes Model for handling sample heterogeneity in classification problems: an application to tissue...
Atmospheric water vapor and the aerosol direct radiative effect: Remote sensing and global model studies
SU‐F‐BRA‐12: Comprehensive Uncertainty Analysis of Proton Stopping‐Power‐Ratio Estimation Using a KV‐MV Dual Energy CT Scanner ...
The use of the possibility theory to investigate the epistemic uncertainties within scenario-based earthquake risk assessments ...
NAVER 학술정보 | Uncertainty management using bayesian networks in student knowledge diagnosis
Uncertainty equality with quantum memory and its experimental verification | npj Quantum Information
Welcome to CDC stacks | An empirical comparison of low-dose extrapolation from points of departure (PoD) compared to...
NOPR: Estimation of uncertainty of effective area of a pneumatic pressure reference standard using Monte Carlo method
Identification and uncertainty estimation of vertical reflectivity profiles using a Lagrangian approach to support quantitative...
Modeling uncertainty in fish population dynamics - Memorial University Research Repository
Frequency-Domain Robust Performance Condition for Controller Uncertainty in SISO LTI Systems: A Geometric Approach
Estimation method of systematic uncertainties in Monte Carlo particle transport simulation based on analysis of variance
Optimal control of an invasive species using a reaction-diffusion model and linear programming
Resolution 01/06 Concerning the IOTC bigeye tuna statistical document programme | IOTC
Dienekes Anthropology Blog: Small number of founders of modern Taurine Cattle
Nitrogen Cycles Project: 6. Human Influences on the Nitrogen Cycle
Validation and verification of automated urine particle analysers | Journal of Clinical Pathology
Percutaneous coronary intervention in left main disease: SYNTAX, PRECOMBAT, EXCEL and NOBLE-combined cardiology and cardiac...
OSA | Nanoshells for photothermal therapy: a Monte-Carlo based numerical study of their design tolerance
Correlated Trades and Herd Behavior in the Stock Market
Gluten sensitivity
Cough frequency in health and disease | European Respiratory Society
Browse In Arabesque en Fondu, Athletic Training, Therapy, and Rehabilitation | Human Kinetics
Epibenthic colonization of concrete and steel pilingsin a cold-temperate embayment : a feld experiment
Sigma-Aldrich profit up on applied chemical sales - MarketWatch
National Grid looks to defer scheduled bill increase
Elucidation of the mechanism behind the influences of uncertainty avoidance on customer attitudes towards Japanese products and...
Automatic web service composition based on uncertainty execution effects<...
Antibiotic overuse for acute respiratory tract infections in Sri Lanka: a qualitative study of outpatients and their physicians...
Constrained partitioning of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration reduces model uncertainties of forest ecosystem carbon...
NF-kappa B genes have a major role in Inflammatory Breast Cancer | BMC Cancer | Full Text
Does Routine Pressure Wire Assessment Influence Management Strategy at Coronary Angiography for Diagnosis of Chest Pain? - Full...
ThyroidPrint - Primer Test Molecular
Stepwise uncertainty reduction in time-lapse seismic interpretation using multi-attribute analysis | Petroleum Geoscience |...
mechanical engineering program academics | Study | Physical Science & Engineering
DMPQ- CONVID-19 has caused a fall in production and decline in demand. Comment on the economic uncertainty due to CONVID-19. -...
OpenEmory | Search Results
Search | Korea Science
Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks
Frontiers | Robot Cognitive Control with a Neurophysiologically Inspired Reinforcement Learning Model | Frontiers in...
Understanding Uncertainties in Model-Based Predictions of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics
The Whore Couture Event | Its Only Fashion
Serval - Extraction of epileptogenic foci from PET and SPECT images by fuzzy modeling and data fusion
Probabilities in Decision Trees: the impact of action on uncertainty | AXA Research Fund
Improving identifiability in model calibration using multiple responses<...
Gigerenzer: The Bias Bias in Behavioral Economics, including discussion of political implications « Statistical Modeling,...
The Experience of Caregivers of Children With Down Syndrome - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.gov
Bayesian inference - Conservapedia
Reducing the sensitivity of IMPT treatment plans to setup errors and range uncertainties via probabilistic treatment planning. ...
regression - Difference between confidence intervals and prediction intervals - Cross Validated
Economics
Uncertainty in economics is an unknown prospect of gain or loss, whether quantifiable as risk or not. Without it, household ... 11, "Uncertainty and Game Theory" and [end] Glossary of Terms, "Economics of information", "Game theory", and "Regulation" ... 11, "Uncertainty and Game Theory" and [end] Glossary of Terms, "Economics of information", "Game theory", and "Regulation" ... Uncertainty and game theory. Main articles: Information economics, Game theory, and Financial economics ...
A Brief History of Time
Chapter 4: The Uncertainty Principle[edit]. This chapter is about the uncertainty principle. The uncertainty principle says ... The uncertainty principle disproved the idea of a theory that was deterministic, or something that would predict everything in ... A different theory also says that light waves also act like particles; a theory that says this is Heisenberg's uncertainty ... Such a theory must combine the classical theory of gravity with the uncertainty principle found in quantum mechanics. Attempts ...
Generalized anxiety disorder
Intolerance of uncertainty therapy[edit]. Intolerance of uncertainty therapy (IUT) refers to a consistent negative reaction to ... Thus, IUT focuses on helping patients in developing the ability to tolerate, cope with and accept uncertainty in their life in ... Intolerance of uncertainty therapy and motivational interviewing are two new treatments for GAD that are used as either stand- ... recognition of uncertainty, and behavioral exposure. Studies have shown support for the efficacy of this therapy with GAD ...
Scientific method
Uncertainty. Measurements in scientific work are also usually accompanied by estimates of their uncertainty. The uncertainty is ... Uncertainties may also be calculated by consideration of the uncertainties of the individual underlying quantities used. Counts ... of choosing between reciprocally related uncertainties. ... Multiplying together the conjugate pairs of uncertainty limits ... Or counts may represent a sample of desired quantities, with an uncertainty that depends upon the sampling method used and the ...
Technological singularity
Uncertainty and risk. Further information: Existential risk from artificial general intelligence. The term "technological ... Discussing the level of uncertainty in AGI estimates, study co-author Stuart Armstrong stated: "my current 80% estimate is ...
Compact star
Compact relativistic objects and the generalized uncertainty principle[edit]. Based on the generalized uncertainty principle ( ...
Multisensory integration
Decreasing sensory uncertainty[edit]. It has been widely acknowledged that uncertainty in sensory domains results in an ... they also progressively changed the temporal uncertainty of the auditory cue; eventually concluding that it is the uncertainty ... but it is not until children are eight years or older before they use multiple modalities to reduce sensory uncertainty.[82] ... "Bayesian models: the structure of the world, uncertainty, behavior, and the brain". Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences ...
Technological singularity
Uncertainty and risk[edit]. Further information: Existential risk from artificial general intelligence ...
Print on demand
Managing uncertainty[edit]. Print on demand can be used to reduce risk when dealing with "surge" publications that are expected ...
Full employment
Uncertainty[edit]. This section does not cite any sources. Please help improve this section by adding citations to reliable ...
Herbicide
Scientific uncertainty of full extent of herbicide effects[edit]. The health and environmental effects of many herbicides is ...
Geographic information system
GIS uncertainties[edit]. GIS accuracy depends upon source data, and how it is encoded to be data referenced. Land surveyors ... "Modeling the uncertainty of slope and aspect estimates derived from spatial databases" (PDF). Geographical Analysis. 29 (1): ...
Probability distribution fitting
An estimate of the uncertainty in the first and second case can be obtained with the binomial probability distribution using ... Predictions of occurrence based on fitted probability distributions are subject to uncertainty, which arises from the following ...
Entrepreneurship
True uncertainty or Knightian uncertainty, which is impossible to estimate or predict statistically (such as the probability of ... Uncertainty perception and risk-taking[edit]. Theorists Frank Knight[104] and Peter Drucker defined entrepreneurship in terms ... Knight, Frank Hyneman (2005). Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. Cosimo, Inc. ISBN 978-1-59605-242-0. .. ... Knight classified three types of uncertainty: *Risk, which is measurable statistically (such as the probability of drawing a ...
Ultimate fate of the universe
Cosmic uncertainty[edit]. Each possibility described so far is based on a very simple form for the dark energy equation of ... Such a description seems to be at odds with everything else in physics, and especially quantum mechanics and its uncertainty ...
Atomic orbital
Immediately after Heisenberg discovered his uncertainty principle,[17] Bohr noted that the existence of any sort of wave packet ... Modern conceptions and connections to the Heisenberg uncertainty principle[edit]. ... see the Heisenberg uncertainty principle for details of the mechanism). ... implies uncertainty in the wave frequency and wavelength, since a spread of frequencies is needed to create the packet itself.[ ...
Solar irradiance
Accuracy uncertainties of ,0.01% are required to detect long term solar irradiance variations, because expected changes are in ... Uncertainties of individual observations exceed irradiance variability (∼0.1%). Thus, instrument stability and measurement ... Instrument inaccuracies add a significant uncertainty in determining Earth's energy balance. The energy imbalance has been ... a cryogenic radiometer that maintains the NIST radiant power scale to an uncertainty of 0.02% (1σ). As of 2011 TRF was the only ...
Portal:Chemistry
IUPAC 2016, Table 2, 3 combined; uncertainty removed. Harv error: no target: CITEREFIUPAC2016 (help) ...
Standard atomic weight
Causes of uncertainty on Earth[edit]. Famously, the published atomic weight value comes with an uncertainty. This uncertainty ( ... This uncertainty reflects natural variability in isotopic distribution for an element, rather than uncertainty in measurement ( ... The value published can have and uncertainty be an interval like for neon: 20.1797(6), or can be an interval, like for boron: [ ... The "(2)" indicates the uncertainty in the last digit shown, to read 4.002602±0.000002. IUPAC also publishes abridged values, ...
Common cause and special cause (statistics)
The game of roulette is not subject, in this sense, to uncertainty ... The sense in which I am using the term is that in which ... In economics, this circle of ideas is analysed under the rubric of "Knightian uncertainty". John Maynard Keynes and Frank ... Knight, F. H. (1921) Risk, Uncertainty and Profit ISBN 1-58798-126-2 ...
Environmental governance
From the big hole in Earth's ozone layer to over-fishing to the uncertainties of climate change, the world is confronted by ...
Новый Палгрейв: словарь по экономике - Википедия
uncertainty. *uncertainty and general equilibrium. *uncovered interest parity. *underconsumptionism. *underemployment ...
1173 Anchises
Uncertainty parameter 0. Observation arc. 87.60 yr (31,997 d). Aphelion. 6.0232 AU. ...
Social science
Sociology is the systematic study of society, individuals' relationship to their societies, the consequences of difference, and other aspects of human social action.[31] The meaning of the word comes from the suffix "-logy", which means "study of", derived from Ancient Greek, and the stem "soci-", which is from the Latin word socius, meaning "companion", or society in general. Auguste Comte (1798-1857) coined the term, Sociology, as a way to apply natural science principles and techniques to the social world in 1838.[32][33] Comte endeavoured to unify history, psychology and economics through the descriptive understanding of the social realm. He proposed that social ills could be remedied through sociological positivism, an epistemological approach outlined in The Course in Positive Philosophy [1830-1842] and A General View of Positivism (1844). Though Comte is generally regarded as the "Father of Sociology", the discipline was formally established by another French thinker, Émile Durkheim ...
31824 Elatus
Uncertainty parameter 2. Observation arc. 10.58 yr (3,864 days). Aphelion. 16.298 AU. ...
Knowledge
Symbolic representations can be used to indicate meaning and can be thought of as a dynamic process. Hence the transfer of the symbolic representation can be viewed as one ascription process whereby knowledge can be transferred. Other forms of communication include observation and imitation, verbal exchange, and audio and video recordings. Philosophers of language and semioticians construct and analyze theories of knowledge transfer or communication. While many would agree that one of the most universal and significant tools for the transfer of knowledge is writing and reading (of many kinds), argument over the usefulness of the written word exists nonetheless, with some scholars skeptical of its impact on societies. In his collection of essays Technopoly, Neil Postman demonstrates the argument against the use of writing through an excerpt from Plato's work Phaedrus (Postman, Neil (1992) Technopoly, Vintage, New York, p. 73). In this excerpt, the scholar Socrates recounts the story of Thamus, ...
Physical constant
"The NIST Reference on Constants, Units, and Uncertainty. NIST. 20 May 2019. Retrieved 2019-05-20.. ... "The NIST Reference on Constants, Units, and Uncertainty. NIST. 20 May 2019. Retrieved 2019-05-20.. ... "The NIST Reference on Constants, Units, and Uncertainty. NIST. 20 May 2019. Retrieved 2019-05-20.. ... "The NIST Reference on Constants, Units, and Uncertainty. NIST. 20 May 2019. Retrieved 2019-05-20.. ...
Discrimination
Distastes or uncertainty?". International Journal of Manpower. 35 (5): 720-744. doi:10.1108/IJM-02-2012-0026. hdl:10419/62444. ...
Qualitative research
Teeter, Preston; Sandberg, Jorgen (2016). "Constraining or Enabling Green Capability Development? How Policy Uncertainty ...
850 Altona
Uncertainty parameter 0. Observation arc. 98.72 yr (36059 d). Aphelion. 3.3755 AU (504.97 Gm). ...
Propagation of uncertainty - Wikipedia
... the uncertainty in the computed quantity, σR, is: σ. R. ≈. σ. V. 2. (. 1. I. ). 2. +. σ. I. 2. (. −. V. I. 2. ). 2. =. R. (. σ ... The uncertainty u can be expressed in a number of ways. It may be defined by the absolute error Δx. Uncertainties can also be ... Therefore, our propagated uncertainty is Δ. f. ≈. Δ. x. 1. +. x. 2. ,. {\displaystyle \Delta _{f}\approx {\frac {\Delta _{x}}{1 ... In statistics, propagation of uncertainty (or propagation of error) is the effect of variables uncertainties (or errors, more ...
Manufacturing Uncertainty | ScienceBlogs
Hmph!  I just read on the OMB/OIRA website that they have completed their review of Labor Secretary Chaos proposal to change the way that OSHA and MSHA assess workers risk of health hazards. The OIRA website notice says their review was completed on August 25, and it was approved "consistent with change." Well, I guess I didnt really expect Secretary Chao or one of her political associates to call me personally to discuss the August 14 letter that 80 public health scientists sent to her. In that letter, we urged Elaine Chao to withdraw her proposal from OMB review. I… ...
Uncertainty Quantification
Learn more about Uncertainty Quantification and the activity groups, conferences, journals, and other opportunities that SIAM ... Uncertainty Quantification. This research area covers all aspects of the effects of uncertainty and error on mathematical ... SIAM Conference on Uncertainty Quantification (UQ20). Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for providing informative ... SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification. Prediction Uncertainties beyond the Range of Experience: A Case Study in ...
Policy Uncertainty in Japan
Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct ... policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, ... exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around ... We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker ...
Communicating scientific uncertainty | PNAS
Uncertainty is part of what they need to know. Greater uncertainty may prompt them to act sooner (to reduce it) or later ( ... Some of that uncertainty concerns facts: What will happen if we make a choice? Some of that uncertainty concerns values: What ... Conveying Uncertainty.. An audit like that in Fig. 2 creates a profile of the uncertainties surrounding scientific results. ... All science has uncertainty. Unless that uncertainty is communicated effectively, decision makers may put too much or too ...
Taxonomic Uncertainty
Living With Uncertainty - The Washington Post
Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle of Education | WIRED
Uncertainty pressures oil stocks - MarketWatch
Subprime Uncertainty Fans Out - WSJ
Uncertainty in risk management: concepts
... decision uncertainty), how uncertainty modelling is used in risk assessment, and differ… ... Learn about different categories of uncertainty (stochastic, epistemic, ... Goal of uncertainty modelling Aims of quantitative uncertainty assessments: ▷ understand the influence of uncertainties • help ... Learn about different categories of uncertainty (stochastic, epistemic, decision uncertainty), how uncertainty modelling is ...
The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks
w16143 Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data. Bloom, Van Reenen, and Bond. w12383 Uncertainty ... The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks. Nicholas Bloom. NBER Working Paper No. 13385. Issued in September 2007. NBER Program(s): ... Uncertainty appears to jump up after major shocks like the Cuban Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK, the OPEC I oil-price ... "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, 05. citation courtesy of ...
permalink
... youve heard of Heisenbergs uncertainty principle. Its the canonical example of quantum weirdness, the strange idea that you ... What Uncertainty Means to Me-- And You, and the Universe. In chapter 2 of How to Teach Physics to Your Dog, theres a footnote ... The large degree of certainty with respect to the time of the note means a large degree of uncertainty with respect to the ... One should also bear in mind that the uncertainty creeps in not once but twice when you actually listen to the noise, rather ...
Living with uncertainty
Human beings hate uncertainty but cannot escape it, particularly now that our species has become host to a virus thats never ... To cope, we have to learn to tolerate great uncertainty, while having faith that scientists will find treatments and/or a ... Some people are now coping with the discomfort of uncertainty by proclaiming the pandemic over, grabbing a beer, and jumping ...
Brexit Uncertainty Is Changing Our Communication Behaviour
Its saturated with the psychological distress of "causal uncertainty," or uncertainty about why things happen in our lives. ... Behavioural economics suggests uncertainty can exacerbate our biases like overconfidence, which can lead to entrepreneurship ... Its in this personal climate of uncertainty that were beginning to see a change in communication behaviours online, which ... This suggests that the ongoing uncertainty of Brexit is continuing the cycle of narrative polarisation, and taking us further ...
London house builders
to defy Brexit uncertainty
Communicating uncertainty in policy analysis | PNAS
1990) Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis (Cambridge Univ Press, ... Permanent Uncertainty: Nonresponse in Surveys. Permanent statistical uncertainty arises from incompleteness or inadequacy of ... Transitory Uncertainty: Revisions in National Income Accounts. Transitory statistical uncertainty arises, because data ... Conceptual Uncertainty: Seasonal Adjustment of Official Statistics. Conceptual uncertainty arises from incomplete understanding ...
Uncertainty in Mineral Prospectivity Prediction | SpringerLink
This paper presents an approach to the prediction of mineral prospectivity that provides an assessment of uncertainty. Two feed ... These two memberships and their uncertainties are combined to predict mineral deposit locations. The degree of uncertainty of ... Uncertainties of type error in the prediction of these two memberships are estimated using multidimensional interpolation. ... Kraipeerapun P., Fung C.C., Brown W., Wong K.W., Gedeon T. (2006) Uncertainty in Mineral Prospectivity Prediction. In: King I ...
Judgment under Uncertainty - Cambridge University Press
Judgment under Uncertainty. Heuristics and Biases. Edited by Daniel Kahneman Paul Slovic Amos Tversky. View list of ... Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman; Part II. ... and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic ... Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman; 9. Shortcomings in the attribution process: on ...
High-Dose Dosimetry Uncertainty Tables | NIST
While these uncertainty budgets support the majority of the high-dose dosimetry services other uncertainties have been ... The tables below are the uncertainty budgets for the high-dose dosimetry services. Irradiation geometries have been established ... Alanine transfer dosimetry uncertainties are for pellet dosimeters only. ... While these uncertainty budgets support the majority of the high-dose dosimetry services other uncertainties have been ...
Uncertainty-from different perspectives | The BMJ
This was uncertainty of an entirely different order. This was me!. With experience you learn that the unlikely does sometimes ... Until recently, I was pretty confident that I was good at dealing with uncertainty. After all, I thought, it goes with the ... The common scenarios in general practice all involve weighing up probabilities and accepting varying degrees of uncertainty. ... Uncertainty-from different perspectives. BMJ 2001; 323 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.323.7310.460a (Published 25 August 2001 ...
Investment under Uncertainty with Financial Constraints
... Patrick Bolton, Neng Wang, Jinqiang Yang. NBER Working Paper No. 20610 ... w20038 Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics. Bolton, Wang, and Yang. w20979 Optimal Contracting, Corporate ... "Investment under uncertainty with financial constraints," Journal of Economic Theory, .. Users who downloaded this paper also ... and corporate savings under uncertainty for a financially constrained firm, which features endogenous growth options, ...
Economy Grows Amid Uncertainty in Myanmar
Myanmars economy performed better in 2017/18 amidst growing global and domestic uncertainty, partially offsetting slower ... YANGON, May 17, 2018 - Myanmars economy performed better in 2017/18 amidst growing global and domestic uncertainty, partially ... and strong services growth despite a slight slowdown likely due to tourism and banking sector uncertainties, according to the ...
The Manufacture of Uncertainty
The manufacturing-uncertainty strategy works because it buries you in the facts, loses you in the woods of science. Sometimes, ... In his new book, Doubt is Their Product, David Michaels describes how the corporate practice of "manufacturing uncertainty" has ... All you have to do is selectively highlight uncertainty, selectively attack the existing studies one by one, and ignore the ... With his extensive chronicling of just how many times the manufacturing-uncertainty strategy has been used to make our world ...
Zika CERC Discussion: Uncertainty
And thats one of the reasons why in this first of a series of Webinars on CERC and Zika I wanted to talk about uncertainty ... And based on what we know now is a reasonable approach to a situation that has a great deal of uncertainty. Lets go to the ... I just want to talk a little bit about Zika and some of the uncertainties that exist out there. So we may have some general ... What Id like to do is to talk a little bit about beyond dealing with uncertainty, what we can do to act trustworthy. And one ...
The Art of 'Manufacturing Uncertainty' - Los Angeles Times
... had rewritten a federal report to magnify the level of uncertainty on climate change came as no surprise. ... had rewritten a federal report to magnify the level of uncertainty on climate change came as no surprise. Uncertainty is easily ... Manufacturing uncertainty is a business in itself. You too can launch a pretty good campaign. All you need is the money with ... By definition, uncertainties abound in our work; theres nothing to be done about that. Our public health and environmental ...
Brené Brown: How To Live With Uncertainty | HuffPost
Uncertainty makes us feel vulnerable, so we try to escape it any way we can. Sometimes we even settle for misinformation or bad ... Without uncertainty, wed never start a business or risk loving someone new. There are no guarantees when we step into the ... When Im deep in uncertainty about work, I can get impatient and snappy with the people who mean the most to me -- and that ... Yet it really is possible to thrive amid uncertainty. Its not about getting advice you can trust; its about faith and self- ...
Brexit uncertainty is depressing UK growth - Hammond | Reuters
Uncertainty over Brexit is depressing economic growth in Britain, Chancellor Philip Hammond said on Friday after official data ... "Clearly that uncertainty is having a depressing effect on economic growth," Hammond told broadcasters during a trip to central ... LONDON (Reuters) - Uncertainty over Brexit is depressing economic growth in Britain, Chancellor Philip Hammond said on Friday ...
QuantificationBrexitPolitical uncertainty2017EpistemicLive with uncertaintySource of uncertainty2016Amid lingering uncMeasurementRegulatory uncertaintyQuantitativePropagationVariabilityPrincipleBiasesManufacturing UncertaintyAmbiguityDegree of uncertainty1885-1972Economic UncertaintyLevel of uncertaintySources of uncertaintyPandemicKnightianAleatoricLess uncertaintyModel uncertaintyReduce uncertaintyHandle uncertaintyScientific uncertaintyBayesianStatistical1921SpatialScientistsImperfectMultiplierMeasurementsInterpolationMathematical modelInputsCausalMediateInherentCharacterizeSelectivelyEvaluationMetrologyCalculationAssessPosesReducingFuelsScienceHttpsClimate changeEconomicsPredictionsProbabilitiesDiscourseCEOsFacing the wExecutivesArises
Quantification10
- The recent work of Owen [SIAM/ASA J. Uncertainty Quantification, 2 (2014), pp. 245--251] has introduced the. (siam.org)
- A central problem in uncertainty quantification is how to characterize the impact that our incomplete knowledge. (siam.org)
- Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a research area of growing theoretical and practical importance at the intersection of applied mathematics, probability, statistics, computational science and engineering (CSE) and many application areas. (warwick.ac.uk)
- The topic for the 2015 school is Uncertainty Quantification for Physical Phenomena. (sintef.no)
- This year's winter school covers the topic of uncertainty quantification for simulation of physical phenomena. (sintef.no)
- Uncertainty quantification aims to answer the questions "How accurate are the results? (sintef.no)
- This years winter school will lectured by the following experts on Uncertainty Quantification. (sintef.no)
- Statistical analyses used to support these conclusions require uncertainty quantification (UQ), usually by estimating the relative standard deviation (RSD) in random and systematic errors associated with each measurement method. (hindawi.com)
- Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the science of quantitative characterization and reduction of uncertainties in both computational and real world applications. (wikipedia.org)
- Computer experiments on computer simulations are the most common approach to study problems in uncertainty quantification. (wikipedia.org)
Brexit9
- In the wake of Theresa May's failure to convince a skeptical parliament to back her deal, and Jeremy Corbyn's no-confidence motion in the government being voted down, uncertainty continues to reign in the two-year Brexit saga. (forbes.com)
- It's in this personal climate of uncertainty that we're beginning to see a change in communication behaviours online, which signals a shift in how a post-Brexit British public will interact with the brands leading the economy out of this uncertain mess. (forbes.com)
- Since the Brexit vote, people have had a stronger accuracy motivation and more information-seeking behaviour, which makes sense as people are trying to get rid of uncertainty distress. (forbes.com)
- This suggests that the ongoing uncertainty of Brexit is continuing the cycle of narrative polarisation, and taking us further away from the cold, hard facts of Brexit reality. (forbes.com)
- LONDON (Reuters) - Uncertainty over Brexit is depressing economic growth in Britain, Chancellor Philip Hammond said on Friday after official data showed lacklustre year-on-year expansion. (reuters.com)
- He added: "With the uncertainty around Brexit at the moment my wife decided to apply for permanent residency . (telegraph.co.uk)
- LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's construction companies in September reported the sharpest fall in activity since just after June 2016's Brexit vote, as clients put projects on hold due to uncertainty over the economy. (reuters.com)
- The Bank said Brexit uncertainty had "intensified considerably" over the last month, adding falling oil prices were likely to drag inflation below its 2 percent target soon. (cnbc.com)
- Brexit uncertainties have intensified considerably since the committee's last meeting," MPC members said in a summary of the December meeting. (cnbc.com)
Political uncertainty4
- Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. (imf.org)
- HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Pakistan shares slumped Thursday, sending the country's benchmark stock index down for a 15th session, as investors dumped shares on fears about political uncertainty and deteriorating economic conditions. (marketwatch.com)
- Most of the Asian stock markets declined Tuesday, following losses on Wall Street overnight as increased political uncertainty in France and the Netherlands as well as disappointing eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs weighed on the sentiment. (ibtimes.com)
- Proposals are being floated to unify Russia's myriad security, intelligence, and law-enforcement services under the Investigative Committee -- making control of the agency a key asset at a time of increased political uncertainty. (rferl.org)
20175
- YANGON, May 17, 2018 - Myanmar's economy performed better in 2017/18 amidst growing global and domestic uncertainty, partially offsetting slower growth in 2016/17. (worldbank.org)
- Trade uncertainty and income inequality ," Working Papers 2017-03, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics. (repec.org)
- Trade uncertainty and income inequality ," CAMA Working Papers 2017-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University. (repec.org)
- Trade Uncertainty and Income Inequality ," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2017-648, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. (repec.org)
- Trade Uncertainty and Income Inequality ," Globalization Institute Working Papers 306, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Mar 2017. (repec.org)
Epistemic4
- Learn about different categories of uncertainty (stochastic, epistemic, decision uncertainty), how uncertainty modelling is used in risk assessment, and different levels of sophistication in uncertainty representation in risk analysis. (slideshare.net)
- Epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. (warwick.ac.uk)
- Uncertainty refers to epistemic situations involving imperfect or unknown information. (wikipedia.org)
- Epistemic uncertainty Epistemic uncertainty is also known as systematic uncertainty, and is due to things one could in principle know but do not in practice. (wikipedia.org)
Live with uncertainty3
- It is the essence of medical practice to live with uncertainty and to be forced to make decisions on the basis of incomplete knowledge. (washingtonpost.com)
- Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), specifically exposure response prevention (ERP) therapy not only helps sufferers face their fears, but also gives them the tools needed to learn to live with uncertainty. (psychcentral.com)
- Though this therapy can initially be anxiety-provoking, the payoff is huge, as being able to live with uncertainty allows them to let go of the "what ifs" of the past and future and just live mindfully in the present. (psychcentral.com)
Source of uncertainty4
- The future direction of China is the "major" source of uncertainty facing the global economy at the moment, according to billionaire investor George Soros. (cnbc.com)
- We show that gain variability of individual neurons is tuned to stimulus uncertainty, that this tuning is specific to the features encoded by these neurons and largely invariant to the source of uncertainty. (nature.com)
- As predicted, we found that gain variability selectively depends on stimulus uncertainty, and that this selectivity is roughly invariant to the source of uncertainty. (nature.com)
- Systematic deviations which remain unchanged in repeated measurements are another source of uncertainty. (ptb.de)
20161
- We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). (imf.org)
Amid lingering unc1
- Caution remained amid lingering uncertainties over potential trade negotiations between China and the United States. (nasdaq.com)
Measurement14
- When the variables are the values of experimental measurements they have uncertainties due to measurement limitations (e.g., instrument precision ) which propagate due to the combination of variables in the function. (wikipedia.org)
- It is different from the uncertainty of the measurement, which reflects only our lack of understanding of the error. (astm.org)
- Second, simulation is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in measurement error RSDs on estimated nuclear material loss detection probabilities in sequences of measured material balances. (hindawi.com)
- A complete measurement result hence requires a quantitative statement describing its associated uncertainty. (ptb.de)
- Measurement uncertainty is particularly relevant in metrology, for example when the result of a measurement is traced back to an SI unit. (ptb.de)
- The uncertainty about a measurement result is often due to random variations in measured data. (ptb.de)
- In order to evaluate measurement uncertainties, statistical methods are employed. (ptb.de)
- In metrology the uncertainty of a measurement result is often dominated by systematic deviations. (ptb.de)
- The GUM can be seen as the de facto standard for the evaluation of measurement uncertainty in metrology. (ptb.de)
- Although the terms are used in various ways among the general public, many specialists in decision theory, statistics and other quantitative fields have defined uncertainty, risk, and their measurement as: Uncertainty The lack of certainty, a state of limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe the existing state, a future outcome, or more than one possible outcome. (wikipedia.org)
- Measurement of uncertainty A set of possible states or outcomes where probabilities are assigned to each possible state or outcome - this also includes the application of a probability density function to continuous variables. (wikipedia.org)
- Measurement of risk A set of measured uncertainties where some possible outcomes are losses, and the magnitudes of those losses - this also includes loss functions over continuous variables. (wikipedia.org)
- The experimental uncertainty is inevitable and can be noticed by repeating a measurement for many times using exactly the same settings for all inputs/variables. (wikipedia.org)
- Just because we cannot measure sufficiently with our currently available measurement devices does not preclude necessarily the existence of such information, which would move this uncertainty into the below category. (wikipedia.org)
Regulatory uncertainty2
- Economist John B. Taylor of the Hoover Institution summed it up aptly: "Unpredictable economic policy - massive fiscal 'stimulus' and ballooning debt, the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing with multiyear near-zero interest rates, and regulatory uncertainty due to Obamacare and the Dodd-Frank financial reforms - is the main cause of persistent high unemployment and our feeble recovery. (humanevents.com)
- Let's be clear about the difference between regulatory uncertainty and competitive uncertainty. (washingtonpost.com)
Quantitative2
- Quantitative uncertainty is usually expressed as a percentage error. (rsc.org)
- Quantitative uses of the terms uncertainty and risk are fairly consistent from fields such as probability theory, actuarial science, and information theory. (wikipedia.org)
Propagation4
- For the propagation of uncertainty through time, see Chaos theory § Sensitivity to initial conditions . (wikipedia.org)
- In statistics , propagation of uncertainty (or propagation of error ) is the effect of variables ' uncertainties (or errors , more specifically random errors ) on the uncertainty of a function based on them. (wikipedia.org)
- This research area covers all aspects of the effects of uncertainty and error on mathematical descriptions of real phenomena including theory and methods to describe quantitatively the origin, propagation, and interplay of different sources of error and uncertainty in analysis and predictions of the behavior of complex systems, in such areas as biological, chemical, engineering, financial, geophysical, physical, and social/political systems. (siam.org)
- In the past, perturbation and stochastic collocation methods have been used for uncertainty propagation. (easychair.org)
Variability7
- We propose a model of visual cortex in which average neural response strength encodes stimulus features, while cross-neuron variability in response gain encodes the uncertainty of these features. (nature.com)
- Since each of these factors is associated with increased information about the visual environment, response variability might represent stimulus uncertainty. (nature.com)
- We propose that, while average response magnitude encodes stimulus features, variability in response gain encodes the uncertainty of these features. (nature.com)
- This appears to be a general property of visual coding: we find that the gain variability of texture-selective neurons in V2 systematically increases with an image's textural uncertainty. (nature.com)
- This model quantitatively matches the effects of stimulus uncertainty on response variability. (nature.com)
- Data-driven decision makers are constantly faced with uncertainty, ambiguity, variability and even extremes. (informationweek.com)
- Experimental uncertainty Also known as observation error, this comes from the variability of experimental measurements. (wikipedia.org)
Principle7
- So, here is my version of the educational uncertainty principle. (wired.com)
- If you read about science at all, you've heard of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. (scienceblogs.com)
- In fact, the very fact that quantum particles have a wave nature creates the bridge between the weird quantum uncertainty principle and the classical uncertainty principle that you literally hear all the time. (scienceblogs.com)
- It's the uncertainty principle and it's not even quantum! (scienceblogs.com)
- Using the uncertainty principle find the energy required for the electron to be confined inside the hydrogen atom. (physicsforums.com)
- ok im not sure how Δr (radius) goes into the uncertainty principle, i know how it works and how it shows that it can not be exactly precise but i just dont understant how Δr would fall in the equation is it just 1 x 10^-10 m[tex]\geq[/tex]4.14x10^-15 eV/12.56637061? (physicsforums.com)
- Uncertainty principle Dilemma! (physicsforums.com)
Biases1
- Behavioural economics suggests uncertainty can exacerbate our biases like overconfidence, which can lead to entrepreneurship and innovation , but it can equally lead to short-term thinking and missing long-term opportunities by falling victim to loss aversion bias. (forbes.com)
Manufacturing Uncertainty5
- In his new book, Doubt is Their Product , David Michaels describes how the corporate practice of "manufacturing uncertainty" has taken over our regulatory system and undermined our health. (prospect.org)
- In his important new book, David Michaels calls the strategy "manufacturing uncertainty. (prospect.org)
- But in significant part due to the manufacturing-uncertainty strategy, we now have the bureaucratic equivalent of clotted arteries. (prospect.org)
- That's why it has mastered the art of manufacturing uncertainty, of demanding often impossible proof over common-sense precaution in the realm of public health. (latimes.com)
- Manufacturing uncertainty is a business in itself. (latimes.com)
Ambiguity2
- Three values are at the heart of the practice of science and engineering and are central to discovery and innovation: searching for uncertainty, recognition of ambiguity and learning from failure. (washingtonpost.com)
- It means focusing on some topics to the exclusion of others, because there is a direct relationship between knowledge depth and the ability to recognize uncertainty and ambiguity. (washingtonpost.com)
Degree of uncertainty2
- The large degree of certainty with respect to the time of the note means a large degree of uncertainty with respect to the frequency of the note. (scienceblogs.com)
- The degree of uncertainty of type vagueness for each cell location is estimated and represented in the form of indeterminacy-membership value. (springer.com)
1885-19721
- Knightian uncertainty is named after University of Chicago economist Frank Knight (1885-1972), who distinguished risk and uncertainty in his 1921 work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit: "Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated. (wikipedia.org)
Economic Uncertainty1
- On Bolivia's Altiplano, Aimara communities use crop and environmental diversity to devise production systems that cope with droughts, frosts, hail, floods and economic uncertainty. (iucn.org)
Level of uncertainty2
- To many scientists and policymakers in Washington, the revelation this month that Philip Cooney, chief of staff for the White House Council on Environmental Quality, had rewritten a federal report to magnify the level of uncertainty on climate change came as no surprise. (latimes.com)
- More importantly, a leader who is honest with her team about her level of uncertainty would gain a more engaged and loyal team. (forbes.com)
Sources of uncertainty3
- We then offer a protocol for summarizing the many possible sources of uncertainty in standard terms, designed to impose a minimal burden on scientists, while gradually educating those whose decisions depend on their work. (pnas.org)
- Many problems in the natural sciences and engineering are also rife with sources of uncertainty. (wikipedia.org)
- One way to categorize the sources of uncertainty is to consider: Parameter uncertainty This comes from the model parameters that are inputs to the computer model (mathematical model) but whose exact values are unknown to experimentalists and cannot be controlled in physical experiments, or whose values cannot be exactly inferred by statistical methods. (wikipedia.org)
Pandemic2
- Some people are now coping with the discomfort of uncertainty by proclaiming the pandemic over, grabbing a beer, and jumping into a pool with 500 other maskless people. (theweek.com)
- Fewer smokers called quit-smoking hotlines last year and some smoked more, contributing to an unusual bump in cigarette sales - all in the middle of the stress, anxiety and uncertainty from the pandemic. (yahoo.com)
Knightian4
- this is now referred to as Knightian uncertainty: Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of risk, from which it has never been properly separated. (wikipedia.org)
- In economics, Knightian uncertainty is a lack of any quantifiable knowledge about some possible occurrence, as opposed to the presence of quantifiable risk (e.g., that in statistical noise or a parameter's confidence interval). (wikipedia.org)
- However, the concept is largely informal and there is no single best formal system of probability and belief to represent Knightian uncertainty. (wikipedia.org)
- in other words, Knightian uncertainty is presumed to not exist in day-to-day affairs, often with disastrous consequences. (wikipedia.org)
Aleatoric1
- Aleatoric uncertainty Aleatoric uncertainty is also known as statistical uncertainty, and is representative of unknowns that differ each time we run the same experiment. (wikipedia.org)
Less uncertainty2
- in this Perspective, warming due to radiative forcing by CO2 can actually be calculated with far less uncertainty than current modeling approaches suggest. (eurekalert.org)
- With minimal future volatility and potential highly scalable services, utility companies face a lot less uncertainty compared to other normal corporations. (reddit.com)
Model uncertainty1
- This workshop will highlight recent developments and research on topics related to model uncertainty and model choice in Statistics. (warwick.ac.uk)
Reduce uncertainty3
- We do expect government to reduce uncertainty in our lives in terms of safety and security in broad terms. (washingtonpost.com)
- Market uncertainty doesn't constrain the economy but government regulations that reduce uncertainty by indirectly restricting competition would. (washingtonpost.com)
- Until more sophisticated methods such as these can be incorporated into climate models, model parameters should be vetted against more accurate calculations, like LBL, to reduce uncertainty in climate projections. (eurekalert.org)
Handle uncertainty3
- Reactive, distributed applications must decide how to handle uncertainty regarding the delivery of messages, including multiple delivery and out-of-order delivery. (infoq.com)
- Three characteristics of leaders who handle uncertainty better than others consistently stand out during these workshops. (forbes.com)
- Leaders who can handle uncertainty are not afraid to pose questions. (forbes.com)
Scientific uncertainty2
- As a result, communicating scientific uncertainty requires both simplifying and complicating normal scientific discourse. (pnas.org)
- Uncertainty is easily manipulated, and Cooney -- a former lobbyist with the American Petroleum Institute, one of the nation's leading manufacturers of scientific uncertainty -- was highly familiar with its uses. (latimes.com)
Bayesian2
- There is a certain relationship between GUM S1 and a Bayesian uncertainty analysis. (ptb.de)
- Propagating Uncertainty in Bayesian Networks by Probabilistic Logic Sampling (M. Henrion). (elsevier.com)
Statistical1
- A process is implemented to propagate uncertainties inherent to the Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) modeling practice to variance in predictions. (sae.org)
19211
- Information asymmetry Perfect information Emanuel Derman § Models.Behaving.Badly There are known knowns Uninformative prior Knight, F. H. (1921) Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. (wikipedia.org)
Spatial1
- Fisher, P.F.: Models of uncertainty in spatial data. (springer.com)
Scientists7
- Much of scientists' own discourse is about uncertainty. (pnas.org)
- At the other, it can omit vital uncertainties that are common knowledge within a field, hence go without saying, and uncertainties that a field routinely ignores, either because they appear unimportant or because its scientists have nothing to say about them. (pnas.org)
- On the other hand, the uncertainties that scientists fail to mention must be uncovered. (pnas.org)
- To cope, we have to learn to tolerate great uncertainty, while having faith that scientists will find treatments and/or a vaccine, and this bizarre era will end. (theweek.com)
- While some scientists argue that uncertainty spices up sexual desire, Reis says his team's research results suggest the opposite holds true. (psychcentral.com)
- Of course, uncertainty is more typical of initial romantic encounters when little is known about the new partner, compared to more advanced relationship stages, when the certainty about a partner's commitment and intentions is relatively high, the scientists note. (psychcentral.com)
- Economists and management scientists continue to look at practical methodologies for decision under different types of uncertainty. (wikipedia.org)
Imperfect1
- Whilst Frank Knight's seminal book elaborated the problem, his focus was on how uncertainty generates imperfect market structures and explains actual profits. (wikipedia.org)
Multiplier2
- Convert an uncertainty quoted in a handbook, manufacturer's specification, calibration certificate, etc., that is a stated multiple of an estimated standard deviation to a standard uncertainty by dividing the quoted uncertainty by the multiplier. (nist.gov)
- Some examples of this are the local free-fall acceleration in a falling object experiment, various material properties in a finite element analysis for engineering, and multiplier uncertainty in the context of macroeconomic policy optimization. (wikipedia.org)
Measurements3
- Several earlier measurements of the relevant rate have shown variations of a factor of 3 or so, so that the uncertainty in the rate is not new. (realclimate.org)
- Uncertainty can enter mathematical models and experimental measurements in various contexts. (wikipedia.org)
- Interpolation uncertainty This comes from a lack of available data collected from computer model simulations and/or experimental measurements. (wikipedia.org)
Interpolation1
- Uncertainties of type error in the prediction of these two memberships are estimated using multidimensional interpolation. (springer.com)
Mathematical model2
- When using a mathematical model, careful attention must be given to uncertainties in the model. (slideshare.net)
- This effect is generally evaluated by propagating the uncertainties using the mathematical model. (easychair.org)
Inputs1
- A first-order expansion solution is applied to integrate uncertainties in the power inputs of the system. (sae.org)
Causal2
- It's saturated with the psychological distress of "causal uncertainty," or uncertainty about why things happen in our lives. (forbes.com)
- Using Twitter's search API as a database, the study measured how polarised the conversations were, the emotional responses to events causing high causal uncertainty, and conducted a regression analysis using a psycho-linguistic scoring system to understand the connection between language and behaviour. (forbes.com)
Mediate2
- Markets mediate the uncertainty of survival and governments mediate the uncertainty of markets. (washingtonpost.com)
- These behavioral effects imply that the neural circuits which mediate perception assess the uncertainty of sensory information. (nature.com)
Inherent1
- Simulation helps in situations where many decision model factors have inherent uncertainty such as weather conditions, supplier costs, unknown market demand and competitor pricing. (informationweek.com)
Characterize1
- We examine these three classes of decisions in terms of how to characterize, assess, and convey the uncertainties relevant to each. (pnas.org)
Selectively1
- All you have to do is selectively highlight uncertainty, selectively attack the existing studies one by one, and ignore the weight of the evidence. (prospect.org)
Evaluation2
- It highlights the importance of permanent and transitory income uncertainty in the evaluation of growth in consumption inequality. (repec.org)
- It is the variable probability distributions and evaluation across all possible combinations of these variables that allow for realistic evaluation of scenario uncertainty. (informationweek.com)
Metrology1
- In metrology for nuclear safeguards, the term "uncertainty" characterizes the dispersion of estimates of a quantity known as the measurand, which is typically the amount of NM (such as U or Pu) in an item. (hindawi.com)
Calculation1
- GUM S1 ) proposes a Monte Carlo Method (MCM) for the calculation of uncertainties. (ptb.de)
Assess1
- This is a challenging NDA application because often the detector is brought to the facility where ambient conditions can vary over time and because the items to be assayed are often heterogeneous in some way and/or are different from the items that were used to calibrate/validate and assess uncertainty in the NDA method. (hindawi.com)
Poses2
- However, executives also recognize that geopolitical uncertainty poses challenges, with close to half (43%) seeing it as a key risk. (ey.com)
- This poses both uncertainty - whether the non-red balls are all yellow or all black - and probability - whether the ball is red or non-red, which is ⅓ vs. ⅔. (wikipedia.org)
Reducing2
- Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty. (imf.org)
- Are you implying that government has a central role in reducing uncertainty in the economy? (washingtonpost.com)
Fuels1
- Market Pulse: Rising uncertainty fuels growing. (reuters.com)
Science6
- All science has uncertainty. (pnas.org)
- As a result, conveying uncertainty is essential to science communication. (pnas.org)
- Peer review scrutinizes the uncertainty in individual studies, protecting science from unwarranted faith in flawed results. (pnas.org)
- In battles over regulating these and many other dangerous substances, money has bought science, and then science -- or, more precisely, artificially exaggerated uncertainty about scientific findings -- has greatly delayed action to protect public and worker safety. (prospect.org)
- All of science is subject to such exploitation because all of science is fundamentally characterized by uncertainty. (prospect.org)
- Every polluter and manufacturer of toxic chemicals understands that by fostering a debate on uncertainties in the underlying science and by harping on the need for more research -- always more research -- it can avoid debating the actual policy or regulation in question. (latimes.com)
Https1
- Cousineau-Bouffard, G., "Implementation of an Uncertainty Analysis Process to SEA Predictions," SAE Technical Paper 2007-01-2312, 2007, https://doi.org/10.4271/2007-01-2312 . (sae.org)
Climate change1
- Research is required to understand and statistically quantify the climate change induced uncertainty in future coastal ecosystem state. (tudelft.nl)
Economics3
- Consumption Inequality and Income Uncertainty ," The Quarterly Journal of Economics , Oxford University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 603-640. (repec.org)
- Second order uncertainty In statistics and economics, second-order uncertainty is represented in probability density functions over (first-order) probabilities. (wikipedia.org)
- Uncertainty in economics: a new approach. (wikipedia.org)
Predictions2
Probabilities2
- The common scenarios in general practice all involve weighing up probabilities and accepting varying degrees of uncertainty. (bmj.com)
- If probabilities are applied to the possible outcomes using weather forecasts or even just a calibrated probability assessment, the uncertainty has been quantified. (wikipedia.org)
Discourse2
- By revealing uncertainties, scientific discourse is an essential resource for communications about them. (pnas.org)
- In the current discourse "uncertainty" a right-wing frame. (washingtonpost.com)
CEOs1
- Krouskos says: "Current geopolitical uncertainty is undoubtedly front of mind for all CEOs. (ey.com)
Facing the w1
- The major uncertainty facing the world today is not the euro but the future direction of China. (cnbc.com)
Executives1
- Above all, it is a powerful metaphor for situations governed by uncertainty, and as such, it offers a unique and transformative learning experience for leaders of all kinds, business executives in particular. (forbes.com)
Arises2
- We demonstrate that this behavior naturally arises from known gain-control mechanisms, and illustrate how downstream circuits can jointly decode stimulus features and their uncertainty from sensory population activity. (nature.com)
- Uncertainty arises in partially observable or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance, indolence, or both. (wikipedia.org)