Uncertainty
Bayes Theorem
A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result.
Models, Statistical
Clinical Chemistry Tests
Models, Theoretical
Monte Carlo Method
In statistics, a technique for numerically approximating the solution of a mathematical problem by studying the distribution of some random variable, often generated by a computer. The name alludes to the randomness characteristic of the games of chance played at the gambling casinos in Monte Carlo. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, 1993)
Decision Theory
Decision Making
Algorithms
Computer Simulation
Cost-Benefit Analysis
A method of comparing the cost of a program with its expected benefits in dollars (or other currency). The benefit-to-cost ratio is a measure of total return expected per unit of money spent. This analysis generally excludes consideration of factors that are not measured ultimately in economic terms. Cost effectiveness compares alternative ways to achieve a specific set of results.
Radiometry
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
Models, Biological
Reproducibility of Results
The statistical reproducibility of measurements (often in a clinical context), including the testing of instrumentation or techniques to obtain reproducible results. The concept includes reproducibility of physiological measurements, which may be used to develop rules to assess probability or prognosis, or response to a stimulus; reproducibility of occurrence of a condition; and reproducibility of experimental results.
Markov Chains
Radiotherapy Planning, Computer-Assisted
Calibration
Models, Economic
Risk Assessment
Climate Change
Any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer). It may result from natural factors such as changes in the sun's intensity, natural processes within the climate system such as changes in ocean circulation, or human activities.
Data Interpretation, Statistical
Conservation of Natural Resources
Decision Support Techniques
Likelihood Functions
Baltic States
Environmental Monitoring
Signal Detection, Psychological
Sensitivity and Specificity
Radiotherapy Setup Errors
Stochastic Processes
Fuzzy Logic
Approximate, quantitative reasoning that is concerned with the linguistic ambiguity which exists in natural or synthetic language. At its core are variables such as good, bad, and young as well as modifiers such as more, less, and very. These ordinary terms represent fuzzy sets in a particular problem. Fuzzy logic plays a key role in many medical expert systems.
Forecasting
Reference Standards
Body Burden
Climate
Ecosystem
Atmosphere
Four-Dimensional Computed Tomography
Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
Therapeutic Equipoise
Cues
Technology Assessment, Biomedical
Environmental Exposure
Chamaemelum
Models, Genetic
Greenhouse Effect
Health outcomes and managed care: discussing the hidden issues. (1/927)
Too often the debate over health outcomes and managed care has glossed over a series of complex social, political, and ethical issues. Exciting advances in outcomes research have raised hopes for logical medical reform. However, science alone will not optimize our patients' health, since value judgements are necessary and integral parts of attempts to improve health outcomes within managed care organizations. Therefore, to form healthcare policy that is both fair and efficient, we must examine the fundamental values and ethical concerns that are imbedded in our efforts to shape care. We must openly discuss the hidden issues including: (1) trade-offs between standardization of care and provider-patient autonomy; (2) effects of financial incentives on physicians' professionalism; (3) opportunity costs inherent in the design of insurance plans; (4) responsibilities of managed care plans for the health of the public; (5) judicious and valid uses of data systems; and (6) the politics of uncertainty. (+info)Impact of therapeutic research on informed consent and the ethics of clinical trials: a medical oncology perspective. (2/927)
PURPOSE: To create a more meaningful understanding of the informed consent process as it has come to be practiced and regulated in clinical trials, this discussion uses the experience gained from the conduct of therapeutic research that involves cancer patients. DESIGN: After an introduction of the ethical tenets of the consent process in clinical research that involves potentially vulnerable patients as research subjects, background that details the use of written consent documents and of the term "informed consent" is provided. Studies from the cancer setting that examine the inadequacies of written consent documents, and the outcome of the consent process itself, are reviewed. Two ethically challenging areas of cancer clinical research, the phase I trial and the randomized controlled trial, are discussed briefly as a means of highlighting many dilemmas present in clinical trials. Before concluding, areas for future research are discussed. RESULTS: Through an exclusive cancer research perspective, many current deficiencies in the informed consent process for therapeutic clinical trials can be critically examined. Also, new directions for improvements and areas of further research can be outlined and discussed objectively. The goals of such improvements and research should be prevention of further misguided or ineffective efforts to regulate the informed consent process. CONCLUSION: To ignore this rich and interesting perspective potentially contributes to continued misunderstanding and apathy toward fulfilling the regulatory and ethically obligatory requirements involved in an essential communication process between a clinician-investigator and a potentially vulnerable patient who is considering clinical trial participation. (+info)Towards a feasible model for shared decision making: focus group study with general practice registrars. (3/927)
OBJECTIVES: To explore the views of general practice registrars about involving patients in decisions and to assess the feasibility of using the shared decision making model by means of simulated general practice consultations. DESIGN: Qualitative study based on focus group interviews. SETTING: General practice vocational training schemes in south Wales. PARTICIPANTS: 39 general practice registrars and eight course organisers (acting as observers) attended four sessions; three simulated patients attended each time. METHOD: After an introduction to the principles and suggested stages of shared decision making the registrars conducted and observed a series of consultations about choices of treatment with simulated patients using verbal, numerical, and graphical data formats. Reactions were elicited by using focus group interviews after each consultation and content analysis undertaken. RESULTS: Registrars in general practice report not being trained in the skills required to involve patients in clinical decisions. They had a wide range of opinions about "involving patients in decisions," ranging from protective paternalism ("doctor knows best"), through enlightened self interest (lightening the load), to the potential rewards of a more egalitarian relationship with patients. The work points to three contextual precursors for the process: the availability of reliable information, appropriate timing of the decision making process, and the readiness of patients to accept an active role in their own management. CONCLUSIONS: Sharing decisions entails sharing the uncertainties about the outcomes of medical processes and involves exposing the fact that data are often unavailable or not known; this can cause anxiety to both patient and clinician. Movement towards further patient involvement will depend on both the skills and the attitudes of professionals, and this work shows the steps that need to be taken if further progress is to be made in this direction. (+info)Ethnicity, bioethics, and prenatal diagnosis: the amniocentesis decisions of Mexican-origin women and their partners. (4/927)
Bioethical standards and counseling techniques that regulate prenatal diagnosis in the United States were developed at a time when the principal constituency for fetal testing was a self-selected group of White, well-informed, middle-class women. The routine use of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) testing, which has become widespread since the mid-1980s, introduced new constituencies to prenatal diagnosis. These new constituencies include ethnic minority women, who, with the exception of women from certain Asian groups, refuse amniocentesis at significantly higher rates than others. This study examines the considerations taken into account by a group of Mexican-origin women who had screened positive for AFP and were deciding whether to undergo amniocentesis. We reviewed 379 charts and interviewed 147 women and 120 partners to test a number of factors that might explain why some women accept amniocentesis and some refuse. A woman's attitudes toward doctors, medicine, and prenatal care and her assessment of the risk and uncertainty associated with the procedure were found to be most significant. Case summaries demonstrate the indeterminacy of the decision-making process. We concluded that established bioethical principles and counseling techniques need to be more sensitive to the way ethnic minority clients make their amniocentesis choices. (+info)Autonomy, rationality and the wish to die. (5/927)
Although suicide has traditionally carried a negative sanction in Western societies, this is now being challenged, and while there remains substantial public concern surrounding youth and elder suicide, there is a paradoxical push to relax the prohibition under certain circumstances. Central to the arguments behind this are the principles of respect for autonomy and the importance of rationality. It is argued here that the concepts of rationality and autonomy, while valuable, are not strong enough to substantiate a categorical "right to suicide" and that the concepts of "understandability" and "respect" are more useful and able to provide the foundation for responding to a person expressing a wish to die. Roman suicide, sometimes held as an example of "rational suicide", illustrates the effects of culture, tradition and values on the attitudes to, and the practice of, suicide. (+info)Fraud, misconduct or normal science in medical research--an empirical study of demarcation. (6/927)
OBJECTIVES: To study and describe how a group of senior researchers and a group of postgraduate students perceived the so-called "grey zone" between normal scientific practice and obvious misconduct. DESIGN: A questionnaire concerning various practices including dishonesty and obvious misconduct. The answers were obtained by means of a visual analogue scale (VAS). The central (two quarters) of the VAS were designated as a grey zone. SETTING: A Swedish medical faculty. SURVEY SAMPLE: 30 senior researchers and 30 postgraduate students. RESULTS: Twenty of the senior researchers and 25 of the postgraduate students answered the questionnaire. In five cases out of 14 the senior researchers' median was found to be clearly within the interval of the grey zone, compared with three cases for the postgraduate students. Three examples of experienced misconduct were provided. Compared with postgraduate students, established researchers do not call for more research ethical guidelines and restrictions. CONCLUSION: Although the results indicate that consensus exists regarding certain obvious types of misconduct the response pattern also indicates that there is no general consensus on several procedures. (+info)Live attenuated vaccine trials in medically informed volunteers: a special case? (7/927)
A group of activist clinicians have offered to volunteer for clinical trials of live attenuated HIV vaccines. This has provided an important conceptual challenge to medical ethics, and to work on the development of HIV vaccines. In exploring these issues, this article highlights how the HIV field has altered the content as well as the tone of ethical discourse. The balance of expertise and authority between research subjects and triallists is profoundly changed, raising questions about the limits of voluntarism and differing perspectives on risk-benefit analysis. Care is needed to ensure that the novelty of the situation does not confuse the central ethical and scientific issues. (+info)The man who claimed to be a paedophile. (8/927)
A psychiatrist recounts a case of a man presenting with severe depression who claimed to have abused children and his pet dog. Clinical management of the case hinged on whether this claim was true, a lie or delusional. The uncertainty over this raised complex ethical dilemmas regarding confidentiality and protection of the public (and animals). (+info)
Uncertainty
Wikiquote has quotations related to Uncertainty. Wikimedia Commons has media related to Uncertainty. Measurement Uncertainties ... uncertainty −uncertainty measured value (uncertainty) In the last notation, parentheses are the concise notation for the ± ... Other taxonomies of uncertainties and decisions include a broader sense of uncertainty and how it should be approached from an ... Such an uncertainty can also be referred to as a measurement error. In daily life, measurement uncertainty is often implicit (" ...
Uncertainty quantification
Epistemic uncertainty Epistemic uncertainty is also known as systematic uncertainty, and is due to things one could in ... but is a more general inferential uncertainty. In real life applications, both kinds of uncertainties are present. Uncertainty ... Aleatoric Aleatoric uncertainty is also known as stochastic uncertainty, and is representative of unknowns that differ each ... Uncertainty propagation is the quantification of uncertainties in system output(s) propagated from uncertain inputs. It focuses ...
Knightian uncertainty
... who distinguished risk and uncertainty in his 1921 work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit: "Uncertainty must be taken in a sense ... Uncertainty, and Profit. Boston, MA: Hart, Schaffner & Marx; Houghton Mifflin Company Köhn, Julia (2017). Uncertainty in ... This poses both uncertainty - whether the non-red balls are all yellow or all black - and probability - whether the ball is red ... In economics, Knightian uncertainty is a lack of any quantifiable knowledge about some possible occurrence, as opposed to the ...
Entropic uncertainty
In quantum mechanics, information theory, and Fourier analysis, the entropic uncertainty or Hirschman uncertainty is defined as ... It turns out that Heisenberg's uncertainty principle can be expressed as a lower bound on the sum of these entropies. This is ... 1] Jizba, P.; Ma,Y.; Hayes, A.; Dunningham, J.A. (2016). "One-parameter class of uncertainty relations based on entropy power ... Bialynicki-Birula, I. (2006). "Formulation of the uncertainty relations in terms of the Rényi entropies". Physical Review A. 74 ...
Uncertainty effect
... and Simonsohn asserted that the uncertainty effect might help to explain why. Additional coverage of the uncertainty effect in ... Although Simonsohn initially proposed that the uncertainty effect might reflect a distaste for uncertainty, in later work he ... Research on the uncertainty effect was first formally conducted by Uri Gneezy, John A. List, and George Wu in the early 2000s, ... The uncertainty effect, also known as direct risk aversion, is a phenomenon from economics and psychology which suggests that ...
Uncertainty budget
The uncertainty budget is an aid for specifying the expanded measurement uncertainty. The individual measurement uncertainty ... constant measurement uncertainty budget and changeable measurement uncertainty budget. The measurement uncertainty is neither ... The measurement uncertainty budget is determined once and remains constant. With a constant measurement uncertainty budget, ... The measurement uncertainty applies to every single measurement point. If the measurement uncertainty is constant, this ...
Uncertainty avoidance
Three types of uncertainty avoidance are high, low, and moderate uncertainty avoidance. Hofstede's uncertainty avoidance scale ... Law defends the uncertainty of behavior by the people with rules that are set. Religion accepts the uncertainty people cannot ... Employees with high uncertainty avoidance deal with uncertainty through the use of rules and regulations that are set in place ... People of moderate uncertainty avoidance cultures are in between the high and the low uncertainty avoidances. These in take ...
Uncertainty (film)
"Uncertainty". Metacritic. Retrieved 4 April 2020. McCarthy, Todd (12 September 2008). "Uncertainty". Variety. Uncertainty at ... Brandon Harris (November 11, 2009). "DAVID SIEGEL AND SCOTT MCGEHEE, "UNCERTAINTY"". "Uncertainty (2009)". Rotten Tomatoes. ... Uncertainty is a 2008 indie crime drama thriller film written, produced, and directed by U.S. independent filmmakers Scott ...
Uncertainty analysis
Interval finite element method Uncertainty quantification Propagation of uncertainty Measurement uncertainty#Uncertainty ... In physical experiments uncertainty analysis, or experimental uncertainty assessment, deals with assessing the uncertainty in a ... Uncertainty analysis investigates the uncertainty of variables that are used in decision-making problems in which observations ... uncertainty analysis aims to make a technical contribution to decision-making through the quantification of uncertainties in ...
Tax uncertainty
Similar to policy uncertainty, tax uncertainty can impact both individuals and businesses and has been shown in some studies to ... The uncertainty surrounding changes to tax rates, as well as the availability of certain tax deductions and credits, led to ... Tax uncertainty is the term for the economic risk that results when future taxes and tax rates are undetermined. ... Honeywell CEO David Cote cited tax uncertainty as the reason why Honeywell has replaced only one quarter of departing employees ...
Policy uncertainty
... may refer to uncertainty about monetary or fiscal policy, the tax or regulatory regime, or uncertainty over ... Policy uncertainty (also called regime uncertainty) is a class of economic risk where the future path of government policy is ... Policy uncertainty in Europe has been an issue due to uncertainty over the European Sovereign Debt Crisis and its possible ... Much of the policy uncertainty in the United States has revolved around fiscal policy as well as uncertainty over the tax code ...
Uncertainty (book)
In using the term "uncertainty" in the title, the book argues that a loose form of the uncertainty principle applies to ... Uncertainty: the Life and Science of Werner Heisenberg is a biography by David C. Cassidy documenting the life and science of ... van Gigch, John P. (1994). "Uncertainty, the Life and Science of Werner Heisenberg David C. Cassidy, W.H. Freeman and Co., New ... The book is named after the quantum mechanics concept known as Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. It has been reviewed many ...
Uncertainty theory
Baoding Liu, Uncertainty Theory, 4th ed., Springer-Verlag, Berlin, [1] 2009 Baoding Liu, Some Research Problems in Uncertainty ... Uncertainty distribution is inducted to describe uncertain variables. Definition:The uncertainty distribution Φ ( x ) : R → [ 0 ... Maximum Uncertainty Principle) For any event, if there are multiple reasonable values that an uncertain measure may take, then ... Definition 1: Let ( Γ , L , M ) {\displaystyle (\Gamma ,L,M)} be an uncertainty space, and A , B ∈ L {\displaystyle A,B\in L ...
Uncertainty principle
Einstein argued that "Heisenberg's uncertainty equation implied that the uncertainty in time was related to the uncertainty in ... Furthermore, the uncertainty about the elevation above the Earth's surface will result in an uncertainty in the rate of the ... The quantum entropic uncertainty principle is more restrictive than the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. From the inverse ... Thus, in the state ψ {\displaystyle \psi } , the uncertainty of B {\displaystyle B} is zero and the uncertainty of A {\ ...
Uncertainty exponent
In mathematics, the uncertainty exponent is a method of measuring the fractal dimension of a basin boundary. In a chaotic ... If we take a large number of such trajectories, then the fraction of them that are epsilon uncertain is the uncertainty ... Please refer to the article on chaotic mixing for an example of numerical computation of the uncertainty dimension compared ... The uncertainty exponent can be shown to approximate the box-counting dimension as follows: D 0 = N − γ {\displaystyle D_{0}=N ...
Beyond Uncertainty
The book takes its name, Beyond Uncertainty, from the first book, Uncertainty, which itself is named after the quantum ... Beyond Uncertainty: Heisenberg, Quantum Physics, and the Bomb is a biography of Werner Heisenberg by David C. Cassidy. ... Bederson 2009 "Beyond Uncertainty: Heisenberg, Quantum Physics, and the Bomb". Publishers Weekly. 1 February 2009. Retrieved 1 ... The book serves as an updated and popularized version of Cassidy's 1992 biography, Uncertainty: the Life and Science of Werner ...
Measurement uncertainty
Relative uncertainty is the measurement uncertainty relative to the magnitude of a particular single choice for the value for ... Dietrich, C. F. (1991). Uncertainty, Calibration and Probability. Bristol, UK: Adam Hilger. EA. Expression of the uncertainty ... NPLUnc Estimate of temperature and its uncertainty in small systems, 2011. Introduction to evaluating uncertainty of ... Accuracy and precision Confidence interval Experimental uncertainty analysis History of measurement List of uncertainty ...
Uncertainty parameter
The uncertainty parameter U is introduced by the Minor Planet Center (MPC) to quantify the uncertainty of a perturbed orbital ... The larger the number, the larger the uncertainty. The uncertainty parameter is also known as condition code in JPL's Small- ... The U value should not be used as a predictor for the uncertainty in the future motion of near-Earth objects. Orbital ... The parameter is a logarithmic scale from 0 to 9 that measures the anticipated longitudinal uncertainty in the minor planet's ...
Uncertainty coefficient
The uncertainty coefficient is not symmetric with respect to the roles of X and Y. The roles can be reversed and a symmetrical ... In statistics, the uncertainty coefficient, also called proficiency, entropy coefficient or Theil's U, is a measure of nominal ... The uncertainty coefficient is useful for measuring the validity of a statistical classification algorithm and has the ... The above expression makes clear that the uncertainty coefficient is a normalised mutual information I(X;Y). In particular, the ...
Multiplier uncertainty
There are several policy implications of multiplier uncertainty: (1) If the multiplier uncertainty is uncorrelated with ... while in the absence of multiplier uncertainty (that is, with only additive uncertainty) the optimal policy with a quadratic ... this no longer holds in the presence of multiplier uncertainty. Brainard, William (1967). "Uncertainty and the effectiveness of ... Similar uncertainty may surround the magnitude of effect of a change in the monetary base or its growth rate upon some target ...
Uncertainty Principle (Numbers)
Over 15.46 million people watched "Uncertainty Principle". Critically, "Uncertainty Principle" received a mixed reception. ... "Uncertainty Principle" is the second episode of the first season of the American television series Numbers. Based on a real ... "Uncertainty Principle" is based on a series of bank robberies, solved with the assistance of an Arkansas mathematician, that ... When writing "Uncertainty Principle", Heuton and Falacci wanted to show Charlie's reaction to the violent nature of Don's work ...
Corridor of uncertainty
"Corridor of uncertainty" is also the name, or part of the name, of several online cricket forums and at least two fanzine-type ... The "uncertainty" in this case comes from the decision which both the last defender and the goalkeeper must make: whether to ... In the sport of cricket, the corridor of uncertainty is an area where a cricket ball can pitch during a delivery: a narrow line ... "corridor of uncertainty" just outside the offstump, from which batsmen are drawn into the shot without the security of the ...
Uncertainty principle (disambiguation)
Fourier uncertainty principle, a concept in mathematics akin to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle Küpfmüller's uncertainty ... Look up uncertainty principle in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is a fundamental concept ... "The Uncertainty Principle", a 2009 episode of the TV series Holby City The Uncertainty Principle, a 1978 novel by Dmitri ... "The Uncertainty Principle", a season 1 episode of the TV series Joan of Arcadia "Uncertainty Principle" (Numbers), a 2005 ...
Stronger uncertainty relations
However, the stronger uncertainty relations due to Maccone and Pati provide different uncertainty relations, based on the sum ... The Maccone-Pati uncertainty relations have been experimentally tested for qutrit systems. The new uncertainty relations not ... The Maccone-Pati uncertainty relations refer to preparation uncertainty relations. These relations set strong limitations for ... Research Highlight, NATURE ASIA, 19 January 2015, "Heisenberg's uncertainty relation gets stronger" "Heisenberg's uncertainty ...
Strategy and uncertainty
However, the uncertainty left, after the best analytical process is carried out, called "residual uncertainty", often falls ... acting now or when the uncertainty has been resolved. The recognition of uncertainty supposes a dilemma for strategists: in ... Finally, uncertainty can arise from within the firm as well. Key executive can leave and accidents can occur. It makes ... To confront uncertainty, organizations deal with predictions and forecasts which may end up being misleading if they are not ...
Wisdom of Uncertainty
... is the eleventh album by American jazz saxophonist David S. Ware which was recorded in 1996 and became ... David S. Ware - Wisdom of Uncertainty: Review at AllMusic. Retrieved March 5, 2014. Joyce, Mike (September 5, 1997). "David S. ... Ware Quartet: Wisdom of Uncertainty". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 29, 2022. (Articles with short description, Short ...
Deferred tax uncertainty
Uncertain Tax Position refers to the uncertainties involving tax items claimed or intended to be claimed on an income tax ... These uncertain tax positions may be the result of unclear tax law or uncertainties regarding their own circumstances. Because ... FIN) 48, "Accounting for Uncertainty in Income Taxes" to standardize the accounting for uncertain tax positions (now covered in ... of the difference in treating the uncertainties, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued in 2006 Interpretation ...
Experimental uncertainty analysis
... is a technique that analyses a derived quantity, based on the uncertainties in the ... Uncertainty analysis is often called the "propagation of error." For example, an experimental uncertainty analysis of an ... Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Sensitivity analysis Propagation of uncertainty Uncertainty ... The uncertainty has two components, namely, bias (related to accuracy) and the unavoidable random variation that occurs when ...
Cone of Uncertainty
The project must actively and continuously work to reduce the uncertainty level. The Cone of Uncertainty is narrowed both by ... In project management, the Cone of Uncertainty describes the evolution of the amount of best case uncertainty during a project ... In software development, the uncertainty surrounds the current state of the project, and in the future the uncertainty ... cone of uncertainty'". CNN. Retrieved 8 March 2020. "The 'Cone of Uncertainty' and Hurricane Forecasting: CRED researchers ...
Küpfmüller's uncertainty principle
... by Karl Küpfmüller in the year 1924 states that the relation of the rise time of a ... Heisenberg's uncertainty principle Rohling, Hermann (2007). "Digitale Übertragung im Basisband" (PDF). Nachrichtenübertragung I ...
Value-Suppressing Uncertainty Palettes | by UW Interactive Data Lab | Medium
This is especially true for data visualization, where the usual practice is to quantify uncertainty (turn… ... but it can be tough to communicate that uncertainty. ... one goal of showing uncertainty is to integrate the uncertainty ... The real world is full of uncertainty, but it can be tough to communicate that uncertainty. This is especially true for data ... Uncertainty information inherently makes visualizations more complex: its more data to show, and uncertainty quantification ...
5630: Basic Uncertainty Concepts | NIST
This 2 hour webinar provides a very basic introduction to uncertainty calculations and reporting using the 8-step pro ... DEFINE: standard uncertainty, expanded uncertainty, coverage factor, Type A methods, Type B methods; ... IMPLEMENT an uncertainty budget based on concepts presented in NISTIR 6969, SOP 29 and the Guide to the Expression of ... Laboratory metrology staff and administrators who are new to uncertainty calculations or who would like to review the 8-step ...
Variability, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity (VUCA) (Opinion)
Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity. These, in combination, can greatly increase anxiety and stress. ... Variability, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity (VUCA). By Marc Prensky - September 26, 2014 4 min read ... The term - which stands for Variability, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity - comes out of military planning, and has recently ... Each of these factors - increased variability, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity - is, by itself, disruptive and unsetting ...
Uncertainty Spooking Markets | Fox Business Video
Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment
"The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, ... "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, John ... "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier ... "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, ...
It's the Economic Uncertainty, Stupid | National Review
After Qaddafi, Libya Faces State Of Uncertainty
Libya is in a state of euphoria amid the collapse of Colonel Muammar Qaddafis regime following months of bloody fighting with a NATO-backed opposition. But with its primary goal achieved, how united is that opposition and what are the prospects for an orderly transition to a representative government?
Center for Mathematics of Uncertainty
... Mission and Current Research. The mission of the Center for Mathematics of Uncertainty ( ... Home / College of Arts and Sciences / Mathematics / Center for Mathematics of Uncertainty ... The Center plans to extend its focus to further the use of mathematics for uncertainty in the social sciences. ... Through the Center for Mathematics of Uncertainty at Creighton University, CMU provides research staffs at no cost for Omaha ...
Astrology in the Age of Uncertainty | The New Yorker
Uncertainty's Silver Lining
NIMH » Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale
Watch Volatility Low, Uncertainty High: What Gives? - Bloomberg
... political uncertainty, valuations and the VIX. She speaks on ... VOLATILITY IS REALLY AT MULTILOW YEARS, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ... THAT DOESNT APPLY AT TIMES LIKE THIS, BECAUSE I DONT THINK ITS REALLY BAKING IN THE SORT OF DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE V.I.X ... UNFORTUNATELY, UNCERTAINTY DOESNT ALWAYS TRANSLATE INTO VOLATILITY. SO OBVIOUSLY YOU HAVE PEOPLE WHO LOOK AT HEADLINE THINGS, ... THE SAYING IS, DESPITE ALL THE CONVERSATION ABOUT TRUMP AND UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING IT, VOLATILITY IS LOW. DO WE NEED TO ...
How Brands Can Adjust Their Messaging In Times Of Uncertainty
... top of mind and being sensitive to their needs is essential when creating a marketing strategy during times of uncertainty. ... Facing so much uncertainty, people increasingly desire to control their environment and, in a larger sense, their destiny. To ... with your audience by sending letters to them explaining what your business is doing to adapt to times of uncertainty. For ... top of mind and being sensitive to their needs is essential when creating a marketing strategy during times of uncertainty. ...
CERC Corner - Acknowledge Uncertainty
Margaret McCartney: Why do we ignore uncertainty? | The BMJ
When we forget uncertainty we forget that the basis for suggesting that only chest pain of a certain short duration needs a ... Margaret McCartney: Why do we ignore uncertainty? BMJ 2018; 360 :k1164 doi:10.1136/bmj.k1164 ... People are trained to respond to the clean lines of the perfectly filled form, but the uncertainty inherent in medicine has not ... Its been accompanied by an attempt to ignore uncertainty, creating a fallout that we seem intent on ignoring. But human beings ...
Winning in the Turns: Scenario Planning for Economic Uncertainty
... take advantage of opportunities and plan for potential risks during moments of economic uncertainty. ... Focusing on action items that will help the team get ahead of the uncertainties as opposed to reactively controlling for their ... During this time of uncertainty, most executives choose to stay "on course" and simply weather changes in economic cycles. ... Scenario planning is a tool used for identifying future uncertainties and developing suitable action plans to respond to ...
Human development in an age of uncertainty
Pedro Conceição discusses how we need to change our outlook on uncertainty in order to face current shocks in Human Development ... New dimensions of uncertainty are emerging. Lives are being unsettled around the world. To turn new uncertainties into ... Figure 2. A new uncertainty complex is emerging. Together, uncertainty and insecurity are corroding social fabrics. More ... Measuring business uncertainty in developing and emerging economies. Edgar Avalos, Jose Maria Barrero, Elwyn Davies, Leonardo ...
The Mathematician Who Knows Uncertainty Is Unavoidable
Uncertainty is unavoidable. And whatever the numbers say, in pretty much whatever situation youre in, its only going to take ... Hannah Fry: The Mathematician Who Knows Uncertainty Is Unavoidable. Eric J. Topol, MD; Abraham Verghese, MD; Hannah Fry, MSc, ... In my head, all of these stories are connected because I think as humans, we dont like the idea of uncertainty. I remember ... But once you accept that uncertainty is unavoidable, once you accept that data will never give you a perfect view of reality, ...
Uncertainty clouds U.S. transition at Mexico border
Calm, not more uncertainty | eKathimerini.com
Geometric Interpretation of the Uncertainty Principle
"Geometric Interpretation of the Uncertainty Principle" written by Pavel A. Stabnikov, published by Natural Science, Vol.11 No.5 ... A Quantum Wavelet Uncertainty Principle. Fractal and Fractional, 2021. DOI:10.3390/fractalfract6010008 ... A sharp Clifford wavelet Heisenberg-type uncertainty principle. Journal of Mathematical Physics, 2020. DOI:10.1063/5.0015989 ...
Finding uncertainty for index of refraction
So how do I find the uncertainty for each of the index of refraction without any uncertainty given for θi and θr for my ... So how do I find the uncertainty for each of the index of refraction without any uncertainty given for θi and θr for my ... Suggested for: Finding uncertainty for index of refraction Ideal index of refraction for single layer AR coating ... and the uncertainty will look close to the uncertainty of the mean. ...
Policymaking, responsibility and uncertainty
... Acceptance speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, for the Laurea Honoris ... Policymakers often take decisions in an environment of uncertainty, where outcomes are rarely known and cannot easily be ... Since policymakers face substantial uncertainty, they should strive to base their decisions on expert knowledge. This is ...
Rousseff's Ouster Won't Clear Up Uncertainty in Brazil | Inter Press Service
Blumenthal: 'Chaos And Uncertainty' On The Southern Texan Border
Mali: Coup Heralds Period of Uncertainty on Human Rights | Common Dreams
Political Uncertainty in Taiwan Adds to U.S.-China Tensions - WSJ
Responsibility Under Uncertainty: Which Climate Decisions Matter Most? | SpringerLink
We propose a new method for estimating how much decisions under monadic uncertainty matter. The method is generic and suitable ... Climate policy decisions are necessarily sequential decisions over time under uncertainty, given the magnitude of uncertainty ... Responsibility Under Uncertainty: Which Climate Decisions Matter Most?. *Nicola Botta. ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8923-27341,2 ... The uncertainty monad \(M\), the states \(X\), the controls \(Y\) and the transition function \(next\) completely specify a ...
Year of Increased Uncertainty - THISDAYLIVE
Still on the Anambra governorship elections, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) tried the effectiveness of the Bi-Modal Voters Accreditation System (BVAS) which it first deployed at the Isoko South I State Constituency Bye-election for Delta State in September 2021. The machine which authenticates voters through fingerprints and facials replaced the Smart Card Reader and erodes the use of incident forms at polls. Although it encountered a few glitches at the Anambra elections, the BVAS is a good nod to a better electoral process.. Insecurity:. 2021 may be described as the year of increased insecurity as the country recorded varying degrees of loss and threat to lives and property. From bandits, terrorists to killer herdsmen and incidents of unrest engineered by separatist groups unrest, the country experienced a high level of insecurity. The effects of the threats affected different sectors of the economy including agriculture, leading to food instability. Despite efforts by ...
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTYQuantifyPolitical UncertaintyEconomic uncertaintySubstantial uncertaintySpatialInsecurityClinicalPatient'sEncodeOutcomesPeople's2021ProbabilityAmidPracticeImplicationsConsiderationConfusionScenarioEXPLAINMeasurementConsistentContentResearchDecisionsColleaguesApproachDemandLaboratoryMethodsReduceComplexDataShowReadPeoplePatientsStrategyTimesWorkingGoalHumanLightSocialIgnoreAnalysisVideo
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY1
- Estimates of disease patterns or trends contain a certain degree of uncertainty. (nih.gov)
Quantify2
- This is especially true for data visualization, where the usual practice is to quantify uncertainty (turn it into a number somehow) and then encode uncertainty by visualizing it. (medium.com)
- Bayesian inference is used extensively to infer and to quantify the uncertainty in a field of interest from a measurement of a related field when the two are linked by a mathematical model. (nih.gov)
Political Uncertainty1
- Citation: Mousavi SH, Favre G, Mohammady N, Ftema Rezaie F, Baud D. The neglected fate of Afghan pregnant women's health amid COVID-19 combined with political uncertainty. (who.int)
Economic uncertainty3
- This research helps legal and compliance leaders understand benefits of scenario planning to maintain your function's strategic focus, take advantage of opportunities and plan for potential risks during moments of economic uncertainty. (gartner.com)
- They use corporate scenarios to understand shifts in strategic and operational decisions and make small but powerful changes to start positioning their teams to act on the risks and opportunities that economic uncertainty can create. (gartner.com)
- The discount carrier said that while its preparations for the UK-EU divorce were on track, economic uncertainty and confusion over Brexit were reducing demand for flights in the ultra-competitive market. (cnn.com)
Substantial uncertainty3
- Since policymakers face substantial uncertainty, they should strive to base their decisions on expert knowledge. (europa.eu)
- Empirical studies suggest that physicians find it more difficult to adhere to norms of disclosure in situations where there is substantial uncertainty. (nih.gov)
- In situations where there is substantial uncertainty, extra vigilance is required to ensure that patients are given the tools and information they need to participate in cooperative decision making about their care. (nih.gov)
Spatial7
- The purpose of this funding opportunity announcement (FOA) is to support innovative research that identifies sources of spatial uncertainty (i.e., inaccuracy or instability of spatial or geographic information) in public health data, incorporates the inaccuracy or instability into statistical methods, and develops novel tools to visualize the nature and consequences of spatial uncertainty. (nih.gov)
- Spatial uncertainty is the lack of, or the error in, knowledge about an object's geographic position (i.e., longitude, latitude, and altitude), which leads to uncertainty about the spatial relationship among its neighbors. (nih.gov)
- For example, an error in a patient's residential address will introduce spatial uncertainty about where the patient lives and this error will further bias any association between the patient's health status and specific environmental exposure. (nih.gov)
- Spatial uncertainty in public health information is ever present -- from data collection and model specification to interpretation, visualization, and communication. (nih.gov)
- The goal of this funding opportunity announcement (FOA) is to facilitate multidisciplinary collaborations among researchers to promote research in identifying, quantifying, and communicating spatial uncertainty in health research to improve disease control and prevention. (nih.gov)
- An additional goal of this reissuance is to facilitate integration of data collection, information technology, visualization tools, statistical models, and health communication to reduce spatial uncertainty in the planning, implementation, and evaluation of disease control programs. (nih.gov)
- In this latter example, we also demonstrate how the knowledge of the spatial variation of uncertainty may be used to select an optimal strategy of taking measurements, where information about the image is revealed one sub-region at a time. (nih.gov)
Insecurity2
- Together, uncertainty and insecurity are corroding social fabrics. (brookings.edu)
- Greece's public morale and collective psychology has been badly affected by the pandemic and the state and the scientific community have the obligation to convey a sense of calm and security - not add to people's sense of insecurity and uncertainty. (ekathimerini.com)
Clinical3
- Bioethicists have articulated an ideal of shared decision making between physician and patient, but in doing so the role of clinical uncertainty has not been adequately confronted. (nih.gov)
- Delineating the intricacies of these uncertainties is crucial to maximizing benefit and minimizing consequence of the incorporation of clinical genome sequencing into standard practice. (nih.gov)
- This study built upon a three-dimensional taxonomy of medical uncertainties published previously by Han and colleagues, which was refined and expanded using thematic analysis of a series of qualitative interviews with leaders in the field of clinical genomics. (nih.gov)
Patient's1
- In the face of uncertainty about the patient's prognosis and the best course of treatment, many physicians revert to a model of nondisclosure and nondiscussion, thus closing off opportunities for shared decision making. (nih.gov)
Encode1
- Our research is the first to reveal that the neural populations that encode the content of working memory also represent the uncertainty of memory. (nih.gov)
Outcomes2
- If you don't properly integrate uncertainty information, then you risk making the uncertainty ignorable , such that people will ignore the risks and variation in the data, and treat things that should have a lot of uncertainty (the outcomes of elections, the effectiveness of medication or diets, or the expected arrival of transportation) as certainties. (medium.com)
- Policymakers often take decisions in an environment of uncertainty, where outcomes are rarely known and cannot easily be anticipated. (europa.eu)
People's1
- To turn new uncertainties into opportunities, we must unleash people's creative and cooperative potential. (brookings.edu)
20211
- The 2021-22 Human Development Report argues that a new "uncertainty complex" is emerging (Figure 2), never seen before in human history. (brookings.edu)
Probability2
Amid1
- STORY: Amid confusion and uncertainty, the Biden administration on Friday began implementing a sweeping policy shift at the U.S.-Mexico border, as a COVID-era order - known as Title 42 - that allowed the swift expulsion of many migrants expired and new asylum restrictions took effect. (yahoo.com)
Practice1
- Josephine P. Briggs, M.D., director of the National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health (NCCIH), will present the Maurice B. Burg Lecture, titled "Facts and Uncertainties: Science and the Practice of Medicine. (nih.gov)
Implications1
- TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- The Bank of Israel cut its benchmark interest rate 0.5 percentage point, to 3.75%, as of Oct. 12, citing a "sharp increase in uncertainty in global financial markets and the implications for the local financial markets. (marketwatch.com)
Consideration2
- In choosing payline thresholds, we take many factors into consideration including uncertainties in future year budget levels and Congressional direction on spending allocations (e.g., targets for universal influenza vaccine research or antimicrobial resistance research). (nih.gov)
- As exemplified through an illustrative vignette of its applicability, the taxonomy facilitates thorough consideration of the many uncertainties that may affect an individual in the laboratory or the clinic. (nih.gov)
Confusion1
- They may be concerned that acknowledging their own uncertainty will undermine patient trust and create additional confusion and anxiety for the patient. (nih.gov)
Scenario1
- Scenario planning is a tool used for identifying future uncertainties and developing suitable action plans to respond to changes in the business environment. (gartner.com)
EXPLAIN1
- But from the answer I found, it finds the individual n which in this case 5 of them and its uncertainty and then explain the relation with the n=1.5. (physicsforums.com)
Measurement2
- This 2 hour webinar provides a very basic introduction to uncertainty calculations and reporting using the 8-step process published in NIST SOP 29 (NISTIR 6969), beginning with some definitions and concepts from the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and includes some simple calculations. (nist.gov)
- IMPLEMENT an uncertainty budget based on concepts presented in NISTIR 6969, SOP 29 and the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. (nist.gov)
Consistent1
- The objective of this project is to promote a clear and consistent understanding of medical uncertainties in genomics through dissemination of a parsimonious, systematic taxonomy. (nih.gov)
Content1
- The human brain regions responsible for working memory content are also used to gauge the quality, or uncertainty, of memories, a team of scientists has found. (nih.gov)
Research3
- The Center for Mathematics of Uncertainty (CMU) supports research that benefits children with special needs. (creighton.edu)
- Through the Center for Mathematics of Uncertainty at Creighton University, CMU provides research staffs at no cost for Omaha local area schools such as Omaha Hearing School and Madonna School. (creighton.edu)
- At a minimum, isolating the uncertainties frequently experienced by various stakeholders could serve to establish reasonable expectations, guide future research, and optimize the patient experience. (nih.gov)
Decisions2
- Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty ," Journal of Political Economy , University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June. (repec.org)
- Access to the uncertainty in our working memory enables us to determine how much to 'trust' our memory in making decisions," explains Hsin-Hung Li, a postdoctoral fellow in New York University's Department of Psychology and Center for Neural Science and the lead author of the paper , which appears in the journal Neuron . (nih.gov)
Colleagues1
- The mission of the Center for Mathematics of Uncertainty (Fuzzy Math) is to support the paradigm shift in the sciences involving uncertainty and to support colleagues in third world countries. (creighton.edu)
Approach4
- I managed to find some answers that are similar to this question and how it approach the question is to calculate the individual index n, which in this case 5 of them and then calculate the uncertainty. (physicsforums.com)
- The cone of uncertainty is not the only measure for quantifying tract dispersion, there is another approach that based on the perturbation method, which was proposed by Anderson [6] and used by Lazar [7,8]. (nih.gov)
- Here, we suggest Hext's approach as an alternative to the other two methods proposed here for constructing the elliptical cone of uncertainty. (nih.gov)
- We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach by inferring and quantifying uncertainty in a physics-based inverse problem and an inverse problem arising in computer vision. (nih.gov)
Demand1
- We are seeing softness in both the United Kingdom and Europe, which we believe comes from macroeconomic uncertainty and many unanswered questions surrounding Brexit which are together driving weaker customer demand," CEO Johan Lundgren said in a statement. (cnn.com)
Laboratory2
- Laboratory metrology staff and administrators who are new to uncertainty calculations or who would like to review the 8-step process of SOP 29. (nist.gov)
- These uncertainties permeate all levels of genetic medicine, having profound effects on, for example, researchers' ability to establish representative models, the ability of laboratory personnel to correctly interpret testing results, and counselors' ability to communicate this information to patients and families. (nih.gov)
Methods2
- Uncertainty can be due to varying quality in data collection methods or to errors in the assignment of patients' residential addresses to geographic locations. (nih.gov)
- In streamline based or probabilistic methods [13,14], the chance of deviating away from a tract in the direction along which uncertainty is low is less likely than from deviating away from the tract in the direction along which uncertainty is high. (nih.gov)
Reduce2
- VSUPs, by contrast, assume that differences between values become less important as uncertainty increases, and so gradually reduce the number of outputs as data become more uncertain. (medium.com)
- Our goal is to reduce uncertainty and to avoid morbidity, mortality, over- and undertreatment of patients with IPNs. (nih.gov)
Complex2
- Uncertainty information inherently makes visualizations more complex: it's more data to show, and uncertainty quantification can be a complex process that results in numbers that are difficult to interpret. (medium.com)
- While genomic technologies afford clinicians an unprecedented capacity for understanding pathology and treating individuals, they also introduce complex and diverse medical uncertainties. (nih.gov)
Data6
- A bivariate map (left) and a Value-Suppressing Uncertainty Palette (VSUP, right), showing polling data for US states before the 2016 Presidential Election. (medium.com)
- However, polling data is volatile and there can be a lot of uncertainty. (medium.com)
- if there's too much uncertainty, maybe the right decision is to wait until there's more data, or refrain from making too strong of a prediction. (medium.com)
- When we make a Value-Suppressing Uncertainty Palette, we decide to spend this limited budget of outputs in the service of integrating data and uncertainty. (medium.com)
- VSUPs have an internal "tree quantization" scheme to determine which combination of data value and uncertainty value corresponds to which discrete color. (medium.com)
- Based upon the presentation of the data (I assume that you did not measure these numbers) -- it looks like the uncertainties in the measurements are about +/- 0.5 degrees. (physicsforums.com)
Show1
- Here, we show how the cone of uncertainty can be constructed from the average dyadics. (nih.gov)
Read1
- It gives an account of the current moment of uncertainty introduced by the pandemic and the way in which psychoanalysts read that uncertainty. (bvsalud.org)
People2
- Facing so much uncertainty, people increasingly desire to control their environment and, in a larger sense, their destiny. (forbes.com)
- People are trained to respond to the clean lines of the perfectly filled form, but the uncertainty inherent in medicine has not disappeared-it's just ignored. (bmj.com)
Patients2
- We argue, in contrast, that effective disclosure will protect patient trust in the long run and that patients can manage information about uncertainty. (nih.gov)
- Reducing uncertainty in cancer risk estimation for patients with indeterminate pulmonary nodules using an integrated deep learning model. (nih.gov)
Strategy2
- One strategy to make uncertainty unignorable is to use a "bivariate map. (medium.com)
- Keeping consumers' feelings top of mind and being sensitive to their needs is essential when creating a marketing strategy during times of uncertainty. (forbes.com)
Times1
- Times of uncertainty: New solitudes? (bvsalud.org)
Working1
- The researchers conducted a pair of experiments to better understand how the brain stores working memory information and how, simultaneously, the brain represents the uncertainty-or, how good the memory is-of remembered items. (nih.gov)
Goal1
- To make matters worse, one goal of showing uncertainty is to integrate the uncertainty into your decision-making process. (medium.com)
Human2
- The conjunction of uncertainty and polarization may be paralyzing, delaying action to curb human pressures on the planet. (brookings.edu)
- As the country plunged into a period danger and uncertainty, Amnesty International's researcher on West Africa Gaetan Mootoo said: 'With the suspension of all the legal institutions and the curfew that has been imposed, all the basic safeguards for the respect of human rights have been put on hold. (commondreams.org)
Light1
- In this work , we propose a method capable of mitigating this uncertainty while maintaining a light computational footprint. (bvsalud.org)
Social1
- The Center plans to extend its focus to further the use of mathematics for uncertainty in the social sciences. (creighton.edu)
Ignore2
Analysis1
- The analysis presented above shows that the cone of uncertainty has an elliptical not circular cross section. (nih.gov)
Video1
- Live laparoscopic video retrieval with compressed uncertainty. (bvsalud.org)
