Uncertainty: The condition in which reasonable knowledge regarding risks, benefits, or the future is not available.Bayes Theorem: A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result.Models, Statistical: Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc.Clinical Chemistry Tests: Laboratory tests demonstrating the presence of physiologically significant substances in the blood, urine, tissue, and body fluids with application to the diagnosis or therapy of disease.Models, Theoretical: Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.Monte Carlo Method: In statistics, a technique for numerically approximating the solution of a mathematical problem by studying the distribution of some random variable, often generated by a computer. The name alludes to the randomness characteristic of the games of chance played at the gambling casinos in Monte Carlo. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, 1993)Decision Theory: A theoretical technique utilizing a group of related constructs to describe or prescribe how individuals or groups of people choose a course of action when faced with several alternatives and a variable amount of knowledge about the determinants of the outcomes of those alternatives.Decision Making: The process of making a selective intellectual judgment when presented with several complex alternatives consisting of several variables, and usually defining a course of action or an idea.Algorithms: A procedure consisting of a sequence of algebraic formulas and/or logical steps to calculate or determine a given task.Computer Simulation: Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes.Cost-Benefit Analysis: A method of comparing the cost of a program with its expected benefits in dollars (or other currency). The benefit-to-cost ratio is a measure of total return expected per unit of money spent. This analysis generally excludes consideration of factors that are not measured ultimately in economic terms. Cost effectiveness compares alternative ways to achieve a specific set of results.Radiometry: The measurement of radiation by photography, as in x-ray film and film badge, by Geiger-Mueller tube, and by SCINTILLATION COUNTING.Quality-Adjusted Life Years: A measurement index derived from a modification of standard life-table procedures and designed to take account of the quality as well as the duration of survival. This index can be used in assessing the outcome of health care procedures or services. (BIOETHICS Thesaurus, 1994)Models, Biological: Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.Reproducibility of Results: The statistical reproducibility of measurements (often in a clinical context), including the testing of instrumentation or techniques to obtain reproducible results. The concept includes reproducibility of physiological measurements, which may be used to develop rules to assess probability or prognosis, or response to a stimulus; reproducibility of occurrence of a condition; and reproducibility of experimental results.Markov Chains: A stochastic process such that the conditional probability distribution for a state at any future instant, given the present state, is unaffected by any additional knowledge of the past history of the system.Radiotherapy Planning, Computer-Assisted: Computer-assisted mathematical calculations of beam angles, intensities of radiation, and duration of irradiation in radiotherapy.Probability: The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process.Calibration: Determination, by measurement or comparison with a standard, of the correct value of each scale reading on a meter or other measuring instrument; or determination of the settings of a control device that correspond to particular values of voltage, current, frequency or other output.Models, Economic: Statistical models of the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services, as well as of financial considerations. For the application of statistics to the testing and quantifying of economic theories MODELS, ECONOMETRIC is available.Risk Assessment: The qualitative or quantitative estimation of the likelihood of adverse effects that may result from exposure to specified health hazards or from the absence of beneficial influences. (Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 1988)Proton Therapy: The use of an external beam of PROTONS as radiotherapy.Climate Change: Any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer). It may result from natural factors such as changes in the sun's intensity, natural processes within the climate system such as changes in ocean circulation, or human activities.Data Interpretation, Statistical: Application of statistical procedures to analyze specific observed or assumed facts from a particular study.Conservation of Natural Resources: The protection, preservation, restoration, and rational use of all resources in the total environment.Decision Support Techniques: Mathematical or statistical procedures used as aids in making a decision. They are frequently used in medical decision-making.Likelihood Functions: Functions constructed from a statistical model and a set of observed data which give the probability of that data for various values of the unknown model parameters. Those parameter values that maximize the probability are the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters.Baltic States: The collective name for the republics of ESTONIA; LATVIA; and LITHUANIA on the eastern shore of the Baltic Sea. (Webster's New Geographical Dictionary, 1988, p111)Environmental Monitoring: The monitoring of the level of toxins, chemical pollutants, microbial contaminants, or other harmful substances in the environment (soil, air, and water), workplace, or in the bodies of people and animals present in that environment.Great BritainSignal Detection, Psychological: Psychophysical technique that permits the estimation of the bias of the observer as well as detectability of the signal (i.e., stimulus) in any sensory modality. (From APA, Thesaurus of Psychological Index Terms, 8th ed.)Sensitivity and Specificity: Binary classification measures to assess test results. Sensitivity or recall rate is the proportion of true positives. Specificity is the probability of correctly determining the absence of a condition. (From Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 2d ed)Radiotherapy Setup Errors: Mistakes committed in the preparations for radiotherapy, including errors in positioning of patients, alignment radiation beams, or calculation of radiation doses.Stochastic Processes: Processes that incorporate some element of randomness, used particularly to refer to a time series of random variables.Fuzzy Logic: Approximate, quantitative reasoning that is concerned with the linguistic ambiguity which exists in natural or synthetic language. At its core are variables such as good, bad, and young as well as modifiers such as more, less, and very. These ordinary terms represent fuzzy sets in a particular problem. Fuzzy logic plays a key role in many medical expert systems.Forecasting: The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology.Reference Standards: A basis of value established for the measure of quantity, weight, extent or quality, e.g. weight standards, standard solutions, methods, techniques, and procedures used in diagnosis and therapy.Body Burden: The total amount of a chemical, metal or radioactive substance present at any time after absorption in the body of man or animal.Time Factors: Elements of limited time intervals, contributing to particular results or situations.Climate: The longterm manifestations of WEATHER. (McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed)Ecosystem: A functional system which includes the organisms of a natural community together with their environment. (McGraw Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 4th ed)Atmosphere: The gaseous envelope surrounding a planet or similar body. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed)Four-Dimensional Computed Tomography: Three-dimensional computed tomographic imaging with the added dimension of time, to follow motion during imaging.Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic: Works about clinical trials that involve at least one test treatment and one control treatment, concurrent enrollment and follow-up of the test- and control-treated groups, and in which the treatments to be administered are selected by a random process, such as the use of a random-numbers table.Bias (Epidemiology): Any deviation of results or inferences from the truth, or processes leading to such deviation. Bias can result from several sources: one-sided or systematic variations in measurement from the true value (systematic error); flaws in study design; deviation of inferences, interpretations, or analyses based on flawed data or data collection; etc. There is no sense of prejudice or subjectivity implied in the assessment of bias under these conditions.Therapeutic Equipoise: Expectation of real uncertainty on the part of the investigator regarding the comparative therapeutic merits of each arm in a trial.Cues: Signals for an action; that specific portion of a perceptual field or pattern of stimuli to which a subject has learned to respond.Technology Assessment, Biomedical: Evaluation of biomedical technology in relation to cost, efficacy, utilization, etc., and its future impact on social, ethical, and legal systems.Environmental Exposure: The exposure to potentially harmful chemical, physical, or biological agents in the environment or to environmental factors that may include ionizing radiation, pathogenic organisms, or toxic chemicals.Chamaemelum: A plant genus of the family ASTERACEAE that is used in folk medicine as CHAMOMILE. Other plants with similar common names include MATRICARIA; TRIPLEUROSPERMUM and ANTHEMIS.Models, Genetic: Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of genetic processes or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.Greenhouse Effect: The effect of GLOBAL WARMING and the resulting increase in world temperatures. The predicted health effects of such long-term climatic change include increased incidence of respiratory, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases.Knowledge: The body of truths or facts accumulated in the course of time, the cumulated sum of information, its volume and nature, in any civilization, period, or country.

Health outcomes and managed care: discussing the hidden issues. (1/927)

Too often the debate over health outcomes and managed care has glossed over a series of complex social, political, and ethical issues. Exciting advances in outcomes research have raised hopes for logical medical reform. However, science alone will not optimize our patients' health, since value judgements are necessary and integral parts of attempts to improve health outcomes within managed care organizations. Therefore, to form healthcare policy that is both fair and efficient, we must examine the fundamental values and ethical concerns that are imbedded in our efforts to shape care. We must openly discuss the hidden issues including: (1) trade-offs between standardization of care and provider-patient autonomy; (2) effects of financial incentives on physicians' professionalism; (3) opportunity costs inherent in the design of insurance plans; (4) responsibilities of managed care plans for the health of the public; (5) judicious and valid uses of data systems; and (6) the politics of uncertainty.  (+info)

Impact of therapeutic research on informed consent and the ethics of clinical trials: a medical oncology perspective. (2/927)

PURPOSE: To create a more meaningful understanding of the informed consent process as it has come to be practiced and regulated in clinical trials, this discussion uses the experience gained from the conduct of therapeutic research that involves cancer patients. DESIGN: After an introduction of the ethical tenets of the consent process in clinical research that involves potentially vulnerable patients as research subjects, background that details the use of written consent documents and of the term "informed consent" is provided. Studies from the cancer setting that examine the inadequacies of written consent documents, and the outcome of the consent process itself, are reviewed. Two ethically challenging areas of cancer clinical research, the phase I trial and the randomized controlled trial, are discussed briefly as a means of highlighting many dilemmas present in clinical trials. Before concluding, areas for future research are discussed. RESULTS: Through an exclusive cancer research perspective, many current deficiencies in the informed consent process for therapeutic clinical trials can be critically examined. Also, new directions for improvements and areas of further research can be outlined and discussed objectively. The goals of such improvements and research should be prevention of further misguided or ineffective efforts to regulate the informed consent process. CONCLUSION: To ignore this rich and interesting perspective potentially contributes to continued misunderstanding and apathy toward fulfilling the regulatory and ethically obligatory requirements involved in an essential communication process between a clinician-investigator and a potentially vulnerable patient who is considering clinical trial participation.  (+info)

Towards a feasible model for shared decision making: focus group study with general practice registrars. (3/927)

OBJECTIVES: To explore the views of general practice registrars about involving patients in decisions and to assess the feasibility of using the shared decision making model by means of simulated general practice consultations. DESIGN: Qualitative study based on focus group interviews. SETTING: General practice vocational training schemes in south Wales. PARTICIPANTS: 39 general practice registrars and eight course organisers (acting as observers) attended four sessions; three simulated patients attended each time. METHOD: After an introduction to the principles and suggested stages of shared decision making the registrars conducted and observed a series of consultations about choices of treatment with simulated patients using verbal, numerical, and graphical data formats. Reactions were elicited by using focus group interviews after each consultation and content analysis undertaken. RESULTS: Registrars in general practice report not being trained in the skills required to involve patients in clinical decisions. They had a wide range of opinions about "involving patients in decisions," ranging from protective paternalism ("doctor knows best"), through enlightened self interest (lightening the load), to the potential rewards of a more egalitarian relationship with patients. The work points to three contextual precursors for the process: the availability of reliable information, appropriate timing of the decision making process, and the readiness of patients to accept an active role in their own management. CONCLUSIONS: Sharing decisions entails sharing the uncertainties about the outcomes of medical processes and involves exposing the fact that data are often unavailable or not known; this can cause anxiety to both patient and clinician. Movement towards further patient involvement will depend on both the skills and the attitudes of professionals, and this work shows the steps that need to be taken if further progress is to be made in this direction.  (+info)

Ethnicity, bioethics, and prenatal diagnosis: the amniocentesis decisions of Mexican-origin women and their partners. (4/927)

Bioethical standards and counseling techniques that regulate prenatal diagnosis in the United States were developed at a time when the principal constituency for fetal testing was a self-selected group of White, well-informed, middle-class women. The routine use of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) testing, which has become widespread since the mid-1980s, introduced new constituencies to prenatal diagnosis. These new constituencies include ethnic minority women, who, with the exception of women from certain Asian groups, refuse amniocentesis at significantly higher rates than others. This study examines the considerations taken into account by a group of Mexican-origin women who had screened positive for AFP and were deciding whether to undergo amniocentesis. We reviewed 379 charts and interviewed 147 women and 120 partners to test a number of factors that might explain why some women accept amniocentesis and some refuse. A woman's attitudes toward doctors, medicine, and prenatal care and her assessment of the risk and uncertainty associated with the procedure were found to be most significant. Case summaries demonstrate the indeterminacy of the decision-making process. We concluded that established bioethical principles and counseling techniques need to be more sensitive to the way ethnic minority clients make their amniocentesis choices.  (+info)

Autonomy, rationality and the wish to die. (5/927)

Although suicide has traditionally carried a negative sanction in Western societies, this is now being challenged, and while there remains substantial public concern surrounding youth and elder suicide, there is a paradoxical push to relax the prohibition under certain circumstances. Central to the arguments behind this are the principles of respect for autonomy and the importance of rationality. It is argued here that the concepts of rationality and autonomy, while valuable, are not strong enough to substantiate a categorical "right to suicide" and that the concepts of "understandability" and "respect" are more useful and able to provide the foundation for responding to a person expressing a wish to die. Roman suicide, sometimes held as an example of "rational suicide", illustrates the effects of culture, tradition and values on the attitudes to, and the practice of, suicide.  (+info)

Fraud, misconduct or normal science in medical research--an empirical study of demarcation. (6/927)

OBJECTIVES: To study and describe how a group of senior researchers and a group of postgraduate students perceived the so-called "grey zone" between normal scientific practice and obvious misconduct. DESIGN: A questionnaire concerning various practices including dishonesty and obvious misconduct. The answers were obtained by means of a visual analogue scale (VAS). The central (two quarters) of the VAS were designated as a grey zone. SETTING: A Swedish medical faculty. SURVEY SAMPLE: 30 senior researchers and 30 postgraduate students. RESULTS: Twenty of the senior researchers and 25 of the postgraduate students answered the questionnaire. In five cases out of 14 the senior researchers' median was found to be clearly within the interval of the grey zone, compared with three cases for the postgraduate students. Three examples of experienced misconduct were provided. Compared with postgraduate students, established researchers do not call for more research ethical guidelines and restrictions. CONCLUSION: Although the results indicate that consensus exists regarding certain obvious types of misconduct the response pattern also indicates that there is no general consensus on several procedures.  (+info)

Live attenuated vaccine trials in medically informed volunteers: a special case? (7/927)

A group of activist clinicians have offered to volunteer for clinical trials of live attenuated HIV vaccines. This has provided an important conceptual challenge to medical ethics, and to work on the development of HIV vaccines. In exploring these issues, this article highlights how the HIV field has altered the content as well as the tone of ethical discourse. The balance of expertise and authority between research subjects and triallists is profoundly changed, raising questions about the limits of voluntarism and differing perspectives on risk-benefit analysis. Care is needed to ensure that the novelty of the situation does not confuse the central ethical and scientific issues.  (+info)

The man who claimed to be a paedophile. (8/927)

A psychiatrist recounts a case of a man presenting with severe depression who claimed to have abused children and his pet dog. Clinical management of the case hinged on whether this claim was true, a lie or delusional. The uncertainty over this raised complex ethical dilemmas regarding confidentiality and protection of the public (and animals).  (+info)

  • In the wake of Theresa May's failure to convince a skeptical parliament to back her deal, and Jeremy Corbyn's no-confidence motion in the government being voted down, uncertainty continues to reign in the two-year Brexit saga. (forbes.com)
  • It's in this personal climate of uncertainty that we're beginning to see a change in communication behaviours online, which signals a shift in how a post-Brexit British public will interact with the brands leading the economy out of this uncertain mess. (forbes.com)
  • Since the Brexit vote, people have had a stronger accuracy motivation and more information-seeking behaviour, which makes sense as people are trying to get rid of uncertainty distress. (forbes.com)
  • This suggests that the ongoing uncertainty of Brexit is continuing the cycle of narrative polarisation, and taking us further away from the cold, hard facts of Brexit reality. (forbes.com)
  • He added: "With the uncertainty around Brexit at the moment my wife decided to apply for permanent residency . (telegraph.co.uk)
  • LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's construction companies in September reported the sharpest fall in activity since just after June 2016's Brexit vote, as clients put projects on hold due to uncertainty over the economy. (reuters.com)
  • The Bank said Brexit uncertainty had "intensified considerably" over the last month, adding falling oil prices were likely to drag inflation below its 2 percent target soon. (cnbc.com)
  • Brexit uncertainties have intensified considerably since the committee's last meeting," MPC members said in a summary of the December meeting. (cnbc.com)
  • Reuters) - London's FTSE 100 fell to a near-two week low on Thursday as concerns over new coronavirus restrictions and Brexit-related uncertainty prompted investors to book profits after a rally earlier in the month. (reuters.com)
  • Markets don't like uncertainty and the fact that a no deal Brexit is looking like a possibility here is not good," Swenson said. (reuters.com)
  • It then assesses the impact of Brexit on indicators of uncertainty (Section 4.2) and how this has affected the UK economy (Section 4.3). (bankofengland.co.uk)
  • Behavioural economics suggests uncertainty can exacerbate our biases like overconfidence, which can lead to entrepreneurship and innovation , but it can equally lead to short-term thinking and missing long-term opportunities by falling victim to loss aversion bias. (forbes.com)
  • These comparisons reveal the limited conditions under which Combine s uncertainty results are unbiased and the extent of these biases when these conditions are dropped. (nist.gov)
  • It is the essence of medical practice to live with uncertainty and to be forced to make decisions on the basis of incomplete knowledge. (washingtonpost.com)
  • Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), specifically exposure response prevention (ERP) therapy not only helps sufferers face their fears, but also gives them the tools needed to learn to live with uncertainty. (psychcentral.com)
  • Though this therapy can initially be anxiety-provoking, the payoff is huge, as being able to live with uncertainty allows them to let go of the "what ifs" of the past and future and just live mindfully in the present. (psychcentral.com)
  • Trade uncertainty and income inequality ," Working Papers 2017-03, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics. (repec.org)
  • Trade uncertainty and income inequality ," CAMA Working Papers 2017-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University. (repec.org)
  • Trade Uncertainty and Income Inequality ," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2017-648, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. (repec.org)
  • Trade Uncertainty and Income Inequality ," Globalization Institute Working Papers 306, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Mar 2017. (repec.org)
  • To many scientists and policymakers in Washington, the revelation this month that Philip Cooney, chief of staff for the White House Council on Environmental Quality, had rewritten a federal report to magnify the level of uncertainty on climate change came as no surprise. (latimes.com)
  • More importantly, a leader who is honest with her team about her level of uncertainty would gain a more engaged and loyal team. (forbes.com)
  • a) Question: 'How much has the result of the EU referendum affected the level of uncertainty affecting your business? (bankofengland.co.uk)
  • One might therefore say that professional education is about developing pedagogies to link ideas, practices, and values under conditions of inherent uncertainty that necessitate not only judgment in order to act, but also cognizance of the consequences of one's action. (aacu.org)
  • Although the terms are used in various ways among the general public, many specialists in decision theory, statistics and other quantitative fields have defined uncertainty, risk, and their measurement as: Uncertainty The lack of certainty, a state of limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe the existing state, a future outcome, or more than one possible outcome. (wikipedia.org)
  • citation needed] Measurement of uncertainty A set of possible states or outcomes where probabilities are assigned to each possible state or outcome - this also includes the application of a probability density function to continuous variables. (wikipedia.org)
  • Measurement of risk A set of measured uncertainties where some possible outcomes are losses, and the magnitudes of those losses - this also includes loss functions over continuous variables. (wikipedia.org)
  • When the variables are the values of experimental measurements they have uncertainties due to measurement limitations (e.g., instrument precision ) which propagate due to the combination of variables in the function. (wikipedia.org)
  • It is different from the uncertainty of the measurement, which reflects only our lack of understanding of the error. (astm.org)
  • Second, simulation is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in measurement error RSDs on estimated nuclear material loss detection probabilities in sequences of measured material balances. (hindawi.com)
  • A complete measurement result hence requires a quantitative statement describing its associated uncertainty. (ptb.de)
  • Measurement uncertainty is particularly relevant in metrology, for example when the result of a measurement is traced back to an SI unit. (ptb.de)
  • The uncertainty about a measurement result is often due to random variations in measured data. (ptb.de)
  • In order to evaluate measurement uncertainties, statistical methods are employed. (ptb.de)
  • In metrology the uncertainty of a measurement result is often dominated by systematic deviations. (ptb.de)
  • The GUM can be seen as the de facto standard for the evaluation of measurement uncertainty in metrology. (ptb.de)
  • On Bolivia's Altiplano, Aimara communities use crop and environmental diversity to devise production systems that cope with droughts, frosts, hail, floods and economic uncertainty. (iucn.org)
  • The Great Recession highlighted the prominent role that economic uncertainty plays in hindering investment and growth. (voxeu.org)
  • This column provides new evidence that economic uncertainty can actually play a positive role by promoting the implementation of structural reforms with long-run benefits. (voxeu.org)
  • Does economic uncertainty promote or impede the adoption of structural reforms? (voxeu.org)
  • In a recent paper, we aim to fill this gap by empirically investigating whether and how economic uncertainty affects the implementation of structural reforms (Bonfiglioli and Gancia 2015). (voxeu.org)
  • For our empirical analysis, we rely on two recent datasets providing useful information for measuring structural reforms and economic uncertainty. (voxeu.org)
  • Our measure of economic uncertainty, drawn from a recent contribution by Baker and Bloom (2013), is the standard deviation of daily stock market returns, which reflects the variability in investors' expectations over the future sales of firms, computed from the Global Financial Database. (voxeu.org)
  • The OLS coefficient estimates suggest that structural reforms are strongly and positively correlated with economic uncertainty. (voxeu.org)
  • Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. (imf.org)
  • Most of the Asian stock markets declined Tuesday, following losses on Wall Street overnight as increased political uncertainty in France and the Netherlands as well as disappointing eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs weighed on the sentiment. (ibtimes.com)
  • We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). (imf.org)
  • Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. (cambridge.org)
  • I would say that learning ideas, practices, and values, and developing the capacity to act with integrity on the basis of responsible judgments under uncertainty, and to learn from experience, is a reasonable description of what liberal learning should be about, as well. (aacu.org)
  • For the propagation of uncertainty through time, see Chaos theory § Sensitivity to initial conditions . (wikipedia.org)
  • In statistics , propagation of uncertainty (or propagation of error ) is the effect of variables ' uncertainties (or errors , more specifically random errors ) on the uncertainty of a function based on them. (wikipedia.org)
  • This research area covers all aspects of the effects of uncertainty and error on mathematical descriptions of real phenomena including theory and methods to describe quantitatively the origin, propagation, and interplay of different sources of error and uncertainty in analysis and predictions of the behavior of complex systems, in such areas as biological, chemical, engineering, financial, geophysical, physical, and social/political systems. (siam.org)
  • The general purpose of the MUF is to provide automated multivariate statistical uncertainty propagation and analysis on a Monte Carlo (MC) basis. (nist.gov)
  • Using Twitter's search API as a database, the study measured how polarised the conversations were, the emotional responses to events causing high causal uncertainty, and conducted a regression analysis using a psycho-linguistic scoring system to understand the connection between language and behaviour. (forbes.com)
  • It's saturated with the psychological distress of "causal uncertainty," or uncertainty about why things happen in our lives. (forbes.com)
  • However, although volatility enters in the regression with one lag, these estimates may not capture a causal link from uncertainty to reforms. (voxeu.org)
  • Knightian uncertainty is named after University of Chicago economist Frank Knight (1885-1972), who distinguished risk and uncertainty in his work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit: "Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated. (wikipedia.org)
  • While studies one through four examined the uncertainty effect on single adults, studies five and six explored whether the effect of uncertainty could be generalized to the everyday lives of long-term partners. (psychcentral.com)
  • Surprisingly, little effort has been devoted to studying the effect of uncertainty on public policy decisions such as reforms. (voxeu.org)
  • We propose a model of visual cortex in which average neural response strength encodes stimulus features, while cross-neuron variability in response gain encodes the uncertainty of these features. (nature.com)
  • Since each of these factors is associated with increased information about the visual environment, response variability might represent stimulus uncertainty. (nature.com)
  • We propose that, while average response magnitude encodes stimulus features, variability in response gain encodes the uncertainty of these features. (nature.com)
  • This appears to be a general property of visual coding: we find that the gain variability of texture-selective neurons in V2 systematically increases with an image's textural uncertainty. (nature.com)
  • This model quantitatively matches the effects of stimulus uncertainty on response variability. (nature.com)
  • Uncertainty arises in partially observable and/or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance, indolence, or both. (wikipedia.org)
  • Learn about different categories of uncertainty (stochastic, epistemic, decision uncertainty), how uncertainty modelling is used in risk assessment, and different levels of sophistication in uncertainty representation in risk analysis. (slideshare.net)
  • Quantitative uses of the terms uncertainty and risk are fairly consistent from fields such as probability theory, actuarial science, and information theory. (wikipedia.org)
  • Economist John B. Taylor of the Hoover Institution summed it up aptly: "Unpredictable economic policy - massive fiscal 'stimulus' and ballooning debt, the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing with multiyear near-zero interest rates, and regulatory uncertainty due to Obamacare and the Dodd-Frank financial reforms - is the main cause of persistent high unemployment and our feeble recovery. (humanevents.com)
  • Quantitative uncertainty is usually expressed as a percentage error. (rsc.org)
  • In economics, Frank Knight distinguished it in 1921 from risk as uncertainty being risk which is immeasurable, impossible to calculate, and referred to as Knightian uncertainty: Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of risk, from which it has never been properly separated. (wikipedia.org)
  • In economics, Knightian uncertainty is risk that is immeasurable and not possible to calculate. (wikipedia.org)
  • in other words, Knightian uncertainty is presumed to not exist in day-to-day affairs, often with disastrous consequences. (wikipedia.org)
  • in this Perspective, warming due to radiative forcing by CO2 can actually be calculated with far less uncertainty than current modeling approaches suggest. (eurekalert.org)
  • With minimal future volatility and potential highly scalable services, utility companies face a lot less uncertainty compared to other normal corporations. (reddit.com)
  • Reactive, distributed applications must decide how to handle uncertainty regarding the delivery of messages, including multiple delivery and out-of-order delivery. (infoq.com)
  • Three characteristics of leaders who handle uncertainty better than others consistently stand out during these workshops. (forbes.com)
  • Leaders who can handle uncertainty are not afraid to pose questions. (forbes.com)
  • Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty. (imf.org)
  • Simulation helps in situations where many decision model factors have inherent uncertainty such as weather conditions, supplier costs, unknown market demand and competitor pricing. (informationweek.com)
  • Tools provides sufficient information for the reader to implement uncertainty calculations. (elsevier.com)
  • in particular, radiative forcing computed using line-by-line (LBL) calculations, which solve the radiative transfer equitation for each absorption line individually rather than averaging over absorption bands, demonstrate a far narrower range of uncertainty. (eurekalert.org)
  • Until more sophisticated methods such as these can be incorporated into climate models, model parameters should be vetted against more accurate calculations, like LBL, to reduce uncertainty in climate projections. (eurekalert.org)
  • Such uncertainty is a reality in all scientific calculations and those who depend upon the results of such calculations must be aware of this fact. (skepticalscience.com)
  • However in cases of the character of rocket trajectory calculations the uncertainties themselves are understood such that we can be very certain that a rocket meant to go to Mars will arrive there barring some unforeseen catastrophe such as an engine failure or a giant solar flare. (skepticalscience.com)
  • Scientific research can reduce both kinds of uncertainty. (pnas.org)
  • Taking full advantage of scientific research requires knowing how much uncertainty surrounds it. (pnas.org)
  • Scientific debates focus on uncertainties requiring attention. (pnas.org)
  • By revealing uncertainties, scientific discourse is an essential resource for communications about them. (pnas.org)
  • As a result, communicating scientific uncertainty requires both simplifying and complicating normal scientific discourse. (pnas.org)
  • In battles over regulating these and many other dangerous substances, money has bought science, and then science -- or, more precisely, artificially exaggerated uncertainty about scientific findings -- has greatly delayed action to protect public and worker safety. (prospect.org)
  • Uncertainty is easily manipulated, and Cooney -- a former lobbyist with the American Petroleum Institute, one of the nation's leading manufacturers of scientific uncertainty -- was highly familiar with its uses. (latimes.com)
  • However, Shulman's report doesn't dwell on the company's funding of political parties, but on the comparatively small $16 million that ExxonMobil paid between 1998 and 2004 to fund 'select political organisations' to manufacture uncertainty about the scientific consensus on global warming. (theecologist.org)
  • Cousineau-Bouffard, G., "Implementation of an Uncertainty Analysis Process to SEA Predictions," SAE Technical Paper 2007-01-2312, 2007, https://doi.org/10.4271/2007-01-2312 . (sae.org)
  • Research is required to understand and statistically quantify the climate change induced uncertainty in future coastal ecosystem state. (tudelft.nl)
  • How Esso employs tactics and people used by tobacco firms to create uncertainty over the science of climate change. (theecologist.org)
  • Risk A state of uncertainty where some possible outcomes have an undesired effect or significant loss. (wikipedia.org)
  • If probabilities are applied to the possible outcomes using weather forecasts or even just a calibrated probability assessment, the uncertainty has been quantified. (wikipedia.org)
  • That is, exact predictions of policy outcomes are routine, while expressions of uncertainty are rare. (pnas.org)
  • Alternatively, as we have earlier suggested (Bonfiglioli and Gancia 2011, 2013), uncertainty on economic outcomes may promote the adoption of reforms by making re-election probability depend more on luck and less on policy action - thereby leaving governments more free to adopt reforms with short-run costs and long-run benefits. (voxeu.org)
  • Uncertainty about future outcomes is an important driver of economic behaviour, over and above central expectations. (bankofengland.co.uk)
  • The wide range of potential outcomes appears to have both increased uncertainty (Chart 4.2) and made people more pessimistic about the economic outlook. (bankofengland.co.uk)
  • citation needed] Second order uncertainty In statistics and economics, second-order uncertainty is represented in probability density functions over (first-order) probabilities. (wikipedia.org)
  • All science has uncertainty. (pnas.org)
  • As a result, conveying uncertainty is essential to science communication. (pnas.org)
  • Peer review scrutinizes the uncertainty in individual studies, protecting science from unwarranted faith in flawed results. (pnas.org)
  • All of science is subject to such exploitation because all of science is fundamentally characterized by uncertainty. (prospect.org)
  • Every polluter and manufacturer of toxic chemicals understands that by fostering a debate on uncertainties in the underlying science and by harping on the need for more research -- always more research -- it can avoid debating the actual policy or regulation in question. (latimes.com)
  • What I have briefly described above is a type of science that I will, for convenience, call Type A. I will take science to be of Type A if, in principal, the uncertainty in the result and the uncertainty in that uncertainty can be numerically calculated and the relative uncertainties in each can be determined to be less than some set percentage. (skepticalscience.com)
  • The equations in Type B science cannot be solved with the same precision as for Type A and, equally important, the uncertainty in the uncertainty is frequently unknown. (skepticalscience.com)
  • The conclusions of Type B science have a much greater range of relative uncertainty than for Type A. The 25% uncertainty suggested by the 75% probability would of course be totally unacceptable in a Type A calculation of, say, the osmotic pressure of an injected serum or the probability of a mid-air collision. (skepticalscience.com)
  • This means that science often faces high system uncertainties coupled with high decision stakes (e.g. ecological factors). (unesco.org)
  • To the extent that science fails to communicate relevant uncertainties it fails to provide trustworthy information. (unesco.org)
  • CHICAGO, ILLINOIS (Reuters Health) - Uncertainty about a diagnosis causes more anxiety and can be more stressful than actually knowing that you have a serious illness, researchers reported here at the 2010 annual meeting of the Radiological Society of North America. (reuters.com)
  • On the one hand, the rise in macroeconomic volatility in recent years has stimulated a new literature on how uncertainty impacts economic activities and private investment decisions (see Bloom 2009, 2011, 2011a, 2014). (voxeu.org)
  • In metrology for nuclear safeguards, the term "uncertainty" characterizes the dispersion of estimates of a quantity known as the measurand, which is typically the amount of NM (such as U or Pu) in an item. (hindawi.com)
  • St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard says that volatility from trade uncertainty won't end even if the US makes a trade deal with China. (msn.com)
  • This is a challenging NDA application because often the detector is brought to the facility where ambient conditions can vary over time and because the items to be assayed are often heterogeneous in some way and/or are different from the items that were used to calibrate/validate and assess uncertainty in the NDA method. (hindawi.com)
  • These behavioral effects imply that the neural circuits which mediate perception assess the uncertainty of sensory information. (nature.com)
  • We then offer a protocol for summarizing the many possible sources of uncertainty in standard terms, designed to impose a minimal burden on scientists, while gradually educating those whose decisions depend on their work. (pnas.org)
  • Much of scientists' own discourse is about uncertainty. (pnas.org)
  • At the other, it can omit vital uncertainties that are common knowledge within a field, hence go without saying, and uncertainties that a field routinely ignores, either because they appear unimportant or because its scientists have nothing to say about them. (pnas.org)
  • On the other hand, the uncertainties that scientists fail to mention must be uncovered. (pnas.org)
  • To cope, we have to learn to tolerate great uncertainty, while having faith that scientists will find treatments and/or a vaccine, and this bizarre era will end. (theweek.com)
  • While some scientists argue that uncertainty spices up sexual desire, Reis says his team's research results suggest the opposite holds true. (psychcentral.com)
  • Of course, uncertainty is more typical of initial romantic encounters when little is known about the new partner, compared to more advanced relationship stages, when the certainty about a partner's commitment and intentions is relatively high, the scientists note. (psychcentral.com)
  • The major uncertainty facing the world today is not the euro but the future direction of China. (cnbc.com)
  • However, Congress has required the CBO to make point predictions 10 y into the future, unaccompanied by measures of uncertainty. (pnas.org)
  • The common scenarios in general practice all involve weighing up probabilities and accepting varying degrees of uncertainty. (bmj.com)
  • Krouskos says: "Current geopolitical uncertainty is undoubtedly front of mind for all CEOs. (ey.com)
  • Several earlier measurements of the relevant rate have shown variations of a factor of 3 or so, so that the uncertainty in the rate is not new. (realclimate.org)
Darkness, Uncertainty for Condo Residents - NBC4 Washington
Darkness, Uncertainty for Condo Residents - NBC4 Washington (nbcwashington.com)
Stocks close a blistering week, even as uncertainty lingers - StarTribune.com
Stocks close a blistering week, even as uncertainty lingers - StarTribune.com (startribune.com)
Uncertainty about new Wake schools leaves families in limbo | Raleigh News & Observer
Uncertainty about new Wake schools leaves families in limbo | Raleigh News & Observer (newsobserver.com)
CiteSeerX - Search Results - The MBPEP: a deep ensemble pruning algorithm providing high quality uncertainty prediction
CiteSeerX - Search Results - The MBPEP: a deep ensemble pruning algorithm providing high quality uncertainty prediction (citeseerx.ist.psu.edu)
Scientific method - Wikipedia
Scientific method - Wikipedia (en.wikipedia.org)
Climate econometric models indicate solar geoengineering would reduce inter-country income inequality | Nature Communications
Climate econometric models indicate solar geoengineering would reduce inter-country income inequality | Nature Communications (nature.com)
Surfing Uncertainty: Do our dynamic  brains predict the world? | New Scientist
Surfing Uncertainty: Do our dynamic brains predict the world? | New Scientist (newscientist.com)
Modeling and Cost Benefit Analysis to Guide Deployment of POC Diagnostics for Non-typhoidal Salmonella Infections with...
Modeling and Cost Benefit Analysis to Guide Deployment of POC Diagnostics for Non-typhoidal Salmonella Infections with... (nature.com)
CDC Washington Transcript Tuesday, October 23, 2007
CDC Washington Transcript Tuesday, October 23, 2007 (cdc.gov)
Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social...
Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social... (pnas.org)
Cost effectiveness of strategies to combat breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia:...
Cost effectiveness of strategies to combat breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia:... (bmj.com)
Born to rule? Royal pregnancy highlights succession issues - CSMonitor.com
Born to rule? Royal pregnancy highlights succession issues - CSMonitor.com (csmonitor.com)
Methods to assess the costs and health effects of interventions for improving health in developing countries | The BMJ
Methods to assess the costs and health effects of interventions for improving health in developing countries | The BMJ (bmj.com)
ArcNews Winter 2007/2008 Issue -- GIS and Science
ArcNews Winter 2007/2008 Issue -- GIS and Science (esri.com)
Extreme Weather Events Could Worsen Climate Change - Scientific American
Extreme Weather Events Could Worsen Climate Change - Scientific American (scientificamerican.com)
Thyroid hormones treatment for subclinical hypothyroidism: a clinical practice guideline | The BMJ
Thyroid hormones treatment for subclinical hypothyroidism: a clinical practice guideline | The BMJ (bmj.com)
Climate science - A sensitive matter | Science & technology | The Economist
Climate science - A sensitive matter | Science & technology | The Economist (economist.com)
Living With Uncertainty - The Washington Post
Living With Uncertainty - The Washington Post (washingtonpost.com)
Paris Climate Agreement passes the cost-benefit test | Nature Communications
Paris Climate Agreement passes the cost-benefit test | Nature Communications (nature.com)
Waves of endemic foot-and-mouth disease in eastern Africa suggest feasibility of proactive vaccination approaches | Nature...
Waves of endemic foot-and-mouth disease in eastern Africa suggest feasibility of proactive vaccination approaches | Nature... (nature.com)
Print on demand - Wikipedia
Print on demand - Wikipedia (en.wikipedia.org)
Diet, nutrition, and cancer risk: what do we know and what is the way forward? | The BMJ
Diet, nutrition, and cancer risk: what do we know and what is the way forward? | The BMJ (bmj.com)
NWA 2012 : Melbourne : Line item notes : 11.13 Entitled extraction of allocated groundwater to urban water system
NWA 2012 : Melbourne : Line item notes : 11.13 Entitled extraction of allocated groundwater to urban water system (bom.gov.au)
Natural climate solutions | PNAS
Natural climate solutions | PNAS (pnas.org)
July 1998 - Scientific American
July 1998 - Scientific American (scientificamerican.com)
Plus it
Plus it (bmj.com)