• We are pleased to present our 26th annual Post-Budget Memorandum " Hope amidst uncertainty " in response to the 2019/2020 National Budget presented by the Honourable Colm Imbert, Minister of Finance, on 7 October 2019. (pwc.com)
  • Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the science of quantitative characterization and estimation of uncertainties in both computational and real world applications. (wikipedia.org)
  • Computer experiments on computer simulations are the most common approach to study problems in uncertainty quantification. (wikipedia.org)
  • It is the code base for ensemble-based uncertainty quantification in deep object pose estimation. (github.com)
  • This script would first do pose estimation based on DOPE (but you do not need to install DOPE or ROS), and then do post-inference uncertainty quantification. (github.com)
  • We show that this is due to over-shrinkage for certain parameters and characterise the set of parameters for which credible balls and marginal credible intervals do give correct uncertainty quantification. (projecteuclid.org)
  • Stéphanie van der Pas, Botond Szabó, Aad van der Vaart "Uncertainty Quantification for the Horseshoe (with Discussion)," Bayesian Analysis, Bayesian Anal. (projecteuclid.org)
  • The uncertainty approach created a better understanding of the error propagation and allowed for an accepted and internationally recognized quantification of the performance of the measurements, giving better confidence in the results. (nottingham.ac.uk)
  • Many problems in the natural sciences and engineering are also rife with sources of uncertainty. (wikipedia.org)
  • One way to categorize the sources of uncertainty is to consider: Parameter This comes from the model parameters that are inputs to the computer model (mathematical model) but whose exact values are unknown to experimentalists and cannot be controlled in physical experiments, or whose values cannot be exactly inferred by statistical methods. (wikipedia.org)
  • Students generate multiple forecasts of water temperature with different sources of uncertainty and examine how uncertainty differs among models. (carleton.edu)
  • Students generate forecasts that include all sources of uncertainty and partition the contribution of different sources of uncertainty for their forecasts with different models. (carleton.edu)
  • Although Pyxidicula resembles some extant radial centric diatoms and has character states that may have been similar to those of ancestral diatoms, we describe numerous sources of uncertainty regarding the reliability of these records. (lu.se)
  • Research at RFF focuses on ways to quantify and reduce uncertainty, as well as detect, mitigate, and transfer the risk associated with disasters and climate change. (rff.org)
  • There are a number of approaches that forecasters can use to reduce uncertainty, which will be explored in this module. (carleton.edu)
  • Each of these initiatives would support the design of clinical research that is more informative for postregulatory decision makers, and would therefore reduce uncertainty and provide greater confidence in conclusions about the value of these treatments. (nih.gov)
  • Uncertainty refers to epistemic situations involving imperfect or unknown information. (wikipedia.org)
  • Epistemic uncertainty Epistemic uncertainty is also known as systematic uncertainty, and is due to things one could in principle know but does not in practice. (wikipedia.org)
  • Uncertainty can be separated into "aleatory" and "epistemic" components. (bechtel.com)
  • Epistemic uncertainty, however, refers to the engineering uncertainty in modelling the process, due to lack of sufficient data and knowledge. (bechtel.com)
  • In theory, the epistemic uncertainty can be reduced to zero. (bechtel.com)
  • The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of epistemic uncertainty in site response analysis when computing Ground Motion Response Spectra (GMRS). (bechtel.com)
  • The current state-of-practice can result in a reduction in computed seismic hazard as epistemic uncertainty increases. (bechtel.com)
  • This could result in the folly of avoiding site specific investigations because more precise knowledge of the site conditions (i.e., a decrease in epistemic uncertainty) may lead to an increase in the estimated seismic hazard. (bechtel.com)
  • Following this current state of practice approach, the use of a large epistemic uncertainty for cases in which limited information is known about the characterization of the site response analysis can lead to a lower mean amplification with a broad bandwidth. (bechtel.com)
  • However, with improved data and thus lower epistemic uncertainty the mean amplification factors may increase with a narrower bandwidth. (bechtel.com)
  • Brexit, trade disputes between the United States and China as well as geopolitical uncertainty in several regions may have eroded the investment appetite of export companies. (bis.org)
  • Through the research project STAKE (Practices and barriers of stakeholder interaction) , Ullrika Sahlin has worked with people such as Åsa Knaggård , political scientist at Lund University, who focuses on how scientific uncertainty and long-term perspectives are dealt with in a political context. (lu.se)
  • Risk is a state of uncertainty, where some possible outcomes have an undesired effect or significant loss. (wikipedia.org)
  • Dennis Lindley, Understanding Uncertainty (2006) For example, if it is unknown whether or not it will rain tomorrow, then there is a state of uncertainty. (wikipedia.org)
  • and use the model to make a forecast of future conditions and quantify forecast uncertainty. (carleton.edu)
  • To quantify uncertainty related to the coronavirus crisis and compare it with previous pandemics and epidemics, we developed the World Pandemic Uncertainty Index (WPUI)-a sub-index of the World Uncertainty Index -for 143 countries starting in 1996. (imf.org)
  • As our Chart of the Week shows, the level of uncertainty related to the coronavirus is unprecedented. (imf.org)
  • The level of uncertainty around the coronavirus is expected to remain high as cases continue to rise and it is still not clear when the crisis will end. (imf.org)
  • And the current level of uncertainty related to the coronavirus crisis is no exception as the economic impact is already visible in the countries most affected by the outbreak. (imf.org)
  • Here's a better way to size up whether agile approaches should factor into your project: Gauge the project's level of uncertainty, both in terms of requirements and technical challenges. (pmi.org)
  • Have you assessed the level of uncertainty your project faces? (pmi.org)
  • Within the framework of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) both of these components of uncertainty can and should be accounted for. (bechtel.com)
  • If probabilities are applied to the possible outcomes using weather forecasts or even just a calibrated probability assessment, the uncertainty has been quantified. (wikipedia.org)
  • Aleatoric Aleatoric uncertainty is also known as stochastic uncertainty, and is representative of unknowns that differ each time we run the same experiment. (wikipedia.org)
  • Degrees of Uncertainty: When Assessing the Suitability of Agile Approaches, Zero In on Your Project's Known Unknowns. (pmi.org)
  • Opening remarks (virtual) by Mr Tuomas Välimäki , Board Member of the Bank of Finland, at Investment in times of uncertainty and unknowns conference, Helsinki, 25 April 2022. (bis.org)
  • Uncertainty around the current pandemic increased first in China but is now visible in many countries around the world. (imf.org)
  • High levels of uncertainty related to the coronavirus pandemic have been recorded in several other economies with a significant number of cases (such as France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States). (imf.org)
  • Dancing With The Stars" champion Julianne Hough is a huge advocate of embracing uncertainty, especially during challenging times like the coronavirus pandemic. (psychologytoday.com)
  • To understand and further address the critical learning needs of these public health leaders, participants underwent an assessment and WHO and UNSSC carefully reviewed training components to best tailor the programme in the context of uncertainty and crisis, namely the COVID-19 pandemic. (who.int)
  • For everyone, uncertainty has made this pandemic experience especially challenging. (medlineplus.gov)
  • To cope with that uncertainty, Dr. Gordon encourages good mental health practices that you can carry with you beyond the pandemic. (medlineplus.gov)
  • The GUM (Guide to the expression of measurement uncertainty) is a standard for statistical methods used for obtaining a quantifiable statement of the uncertainty of a measurement. (nottingham.ac.uk)
  • In addition, a significant part of the project was dedicated to embedding knowledge of measurement uncertainty within the engineering team at Sencon and creating a software tool to help create an uncertainty budget for new or changed designs. (nottingham.ac.uk)
  • Ahmed Khafaga is a KTP associate with experience in dimensional metrology and measurement uncertainty. (nottingham.ac.uk)
  • The partnership is between Coventry University and the Sencon UK Ltd, the latter is a manufacturer of gauging systems for the food and beverage metal packaging industry, and the project's goal is to create a methodology for quantifying measurement uncertainty across the product range. (nottingham.ac.uk)
  • Shaking the old measurement-uncertainty explanation may be difficult, however. (scientificamerican.com)
  • Although many recent transformer extensions have been proposed, the study of the uncertainty estimation of transformer models is under-explored. (aaai.org)
  • In this work, we propose a novel way to enable transformers to have the capability of uncertainty estimation and, meanwhile, retain the original predictive performance. (aaai.org)
  • 3) is on par with Monte Carlo dropout and ensemble methods in uncertainty estimation on OOD datasets. (aaai.org)
  • György Szarvas Transformer Uncertainty Estimation with Hierarchical Stochastic Attention Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 36 (2022) 11147-11155. (aaai.org)
  • György Szarvas Transformer Uncertainty Estimation with Hierarchical Stochastic Attention AAAI 2022, 11147-11155. (aaai.org)
  • Although the terms are used in various ways among the general public, many specialists in decision theory, statistics and other quantitative fields have defined uncertainty, risk, and their measurement as: The lack of certainty, a state of limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe the existing state, a future outcome, or more than one possible outcome. (wikipedia.org)
  • Reliable uncertainty evaluation is particularly important in these applications, e.g. to safeguard the diagnosis of a tumor in quantitative imaging or to reliably monitor air pollution. (ptb.de)
  • The agile movement was founded by people trying to solve innovation problems involving some degree of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity or ambiguity). (pmi.org)
  • There is a difference between uncertainty and variability. (wikipedia.org)
  • We hypothesized that there would be variability among radiologists and between subspecialities within radiology regarding the use of uncertainty terms and that the length of the impression of a report would be a predictor of use of uncertainty terms. (bvsalud.org)
  • Substantial variability exists among radiologists and subspecialities regarding the use of uncertainty terms, and this variability cannot be explained by years of radiologist experience or differences in proportions of specific modalities. (bvsalud.org)
  • It is this uncertainty in the knowledge of the clinical harms and benefits associated with oncology treatments that prevents postregulatory decision makers from making accurate assessments of the value of these treatments. (nih.gov)
  • Our research group studies the management of uncertainty about knowledge in scientific assessments. (lu.se)
  • I don't buy the argument that decision-makers are not sufficiently competent to understand risk assessments or uncertainty. (lu.se)
  • Brexit, which would see the country crash out of the EU on Friday with likely painful economic consequences, it prolongs the uncertainty for businesses. (foxbusiness.com)
  • Measurement of uncertainty A set of possible states or outcomes where probabilities are assigned to each possible state or outcome - this also includes the application of a probability density function to continuous variables. (wikipedia.org)
  • In statistics and economics, second-order uncertainty is represented in probability density functions over (first-order) probabilities. (wikipedia.org)
  • Uncertainty is quantified by a probability distribution which depends upon knowledge about the likelihood of what the single, true value of the uncertain quantity is. (wikipedia.org)
  • The uncertainty that looms over the winter tests is just the latest abrupt turn for Oklahoma's education system, which has gone through fractious debates on standards and tests over the past year. (edweek.org)
  • Uncertainty may involve things that are completely unknown, whereas risks are often understood via calculable probabilities. (beyondintractability.org)
  • It also must be noted that uncertainty doesn't necessarily imply risks -- something undesirable might happen, but it might be that any of the possible outcomes is OK. (beyondintractability.org)
  • Mercury risks: controversy or just uncertainty? (cdc.gov)
  • These are some of the questions that Ullrika Sahlin wants to help solve in her research on risks and uncertainty in decision-making within the environmental field. (lu.se)
  • The ideal radiology report reduces diagnostic uncertainty , while avoiding ambiguity whenever possible. (bvsalud.org)
  • Uncertainty arises in partially observable or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance, indolence, or both. (wikipedia.org)
  • Gain an introduction to to pastoralism, uncertainty and resilience, with lessons for global change. (eldis.org)
  • The course is based on the work of the IDS-led PASTRES programme (Pastoralism, Uncertainty and Resilience: Global Lessons from the Margins) programme. (eldis.org)
  • With personal intention and support systems, leaders can help build resilience as a bridge across uncertainty that will not only sustain the workforce through crises and help them manage stress going forward, but also lead people to surprisingly positive outcomes as they emerge on the other side of a crisis. (deloitte.com)
  • Uncertainty can enter mathematical models and experimental measurements in various contexts. (wikipedia.org)
  • Heisenberg sometimes explained the uncertainty principle as a problem of making measurements. (scientificamerican.com)
  • Aephraim Steinberg of the University of Toronto in Canada and his team have performed measurements on photons (particles of light) and showed that the act of measuring can introduce less uncertainty than is required by Heisenberg's principle . (scientificamerican.com)
  • Earlier this year, Yuji Hasegawa, a physicist at the Vienna University of Technology in Austria, measured groups of neutron spins and derived results well below what would be predicted if measurements were inserting all the uncertainty into the system . (scientificamerican.com)
  • Even after doing the experiment, Steinberg still included a question about how measurements create uncertainty on a recent homework assignment for his students. (scientificamerican.com)
  • This webinar, presented by The Crisis Tamer Lisa Dinhofer, will provide 'navigational tools' for working with uncertainty and planning for the aftermath of disruption. (score.org)
  • The leadership programme, which was launched in July this year, seeks to ultimately support WHO representatives in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and their national counterparts in ministries of health to effectively lead and manage in times of uncertainty and crisis. (who.int)
  • In economics, in 1921 Frank Knight distinguished uncertainty from risk with uncertainty being lack of knowledge which is immeasurable and impossible to calculate. (wikipedia.org)
  • Long-run growth uncertainty ," Journal of Monetary Economics , Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 67-80. (repec.org)
  • Long-Run Growth Uncertainty ," Discussion Papers 15-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham. (repec.org)
  • The focus of PTB's Working Group 8.42 is on the development of Bayesian methods for the evaluation of uncertainties. (ptb.de)
  • Such uncertainty is usually ignored in systematic reviews, however. (bmj.com)
  • The GUM does not adequately address the challenges arising in these applications, and the development of statistical procedures for improved uncertainty evaluation is an urgent need. (ptb.de)
  • Some examples of this are the local free-fall acceleration in a falling object experiment, various material properties in a finite element analysis for engineering, and multiplier uncertainty in the context of macroeconomic policy optimization. (wikipedia.org)
  • The propagation and analysis of uncertainty 9. (who.int)
  • Students build different models to simulate water temperature for their chosen NEON site and generate forecasts without uncertainty. (carleton.edu)
  • One general principle that is perceived in engineering practice is that the less information engineers have, the larger is the uncertainty and the higher is the estimated seismic hazard. (bechtel.com)
  • This very basic principal is not only violated in the current practice of seismic hazard analysis but it works contrary to the very basic principle so that the larger uncertainty yields lower seismic hazard. (bechtel.com)
  • This observation contradicts the general principle described earlier that less information implies higher uncertainty and results in higher computed seismic ground motions. (bechtel.com)
  • At the foundation of quantum mechanics is the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. (scientificamerican.com)
  • and the act of measurement would produce the uncertainty needed to satisfy the principle. (scientificamerican.com)
  • Physics students are still taught this measurement-disturbance version of the uncertainty principle in introductory classes, but it turns out that it's not always true. (scientificamerican.com)
  • When the researchers did the experiment multiple times, they found that measurement of one polarization did not always disturb the other state as much as the uncertainty principle predicted. (scientificamerican.com)
  • In the strongest case, the induced fuzziness was as little as half of what would be predicted by the uncertainty principle. (scientificamerican.com)
  • Don't get too excited: the uncertainty principle still stands, says Steinberg: "In the end, there's no way you can know [both quantum states] accurately at the same time. (scientificamerican.com)
  • This is the most direct experimental test of the Heisenberg measurement-disturbance uncertainty principle,' says Howard Wiseman, a theoretical physicist at Griffith University in Brisbane, Australia 'Hopefully it will be useful for educating textbook writers so they know that the naive measurement-disturbance relation is wrong. (scientificamerican.com)
  • Leadership development in times of uncertainty requires non-linear approaches to problem-solving, including systems thinking and multisectoral responses. (who.int)
  • State laboratory staff who have responsibilities for developing, implementing, and/or improving the uncertainty analyses methods and reporting in their laboratory as well as those who are seeking OWM recognition and/or accreditation or improvements to support recognition/accreditation through adding this measurement to their Scope. (nist.gov)
  • 6 Like any metric, however, I 2 has some uncertainty, and Higgins and Thompson provided methods to calculate this uncertainty. (bmj.com)
  • Bayes- funding agencies to support the control of previously ne- ian methods are useful because they provide an approach glected tropical diseases, including parasitic diseases such for propagating uncertainty (through a prediction model) in as malaria, schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, lymphatic regards to the spatial predictions. (cdc.gov)
  • In this approach, the ML model provides an uncertainty estimate along with its prediction for each new atomic configuration. (nature.com)
  • Uncertainties in spatial prediction maps originate eases have been initiated in recent years ( 1 , 2 ), after from factors such as natural random variation and measure- renewed commitment by governments and international ment error of the outcome variable and covariates. (cdc.gov)
  • In the future it may very well be that decision-makers will require that uncertainty is managed at a certain level, which in turn places demands on not only risk assessors but also experts and research results. (lu.se)
  • Decision-makers often request that any uncertainty in documentation to support the decision is described in such a way that it can be factored into the decision. (lu.se)
  • Forecast uncertainty is derived from multiple sources, including model parameters and driver data, among others. (carleton.edu)
  • Measurement of risk includes a set of measured uncertainties, where some possible outcomes are losses, and the magnitudes of those losses. (wikipedia.org)
  • Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of risk, from which it has never been properly separated. (wikipedia.org)
  • It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or 'risk' proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all. (wikipedia.org)
  • This is seldom the case, though, so uncertainty and risk usually run hand-in-hand. (beyondintractability.org)
  • And it is not necessarily the case that, when given enough time, scientists can eliminate uncertainty and risk. (beyondintractability.org)
  • Some decisions involve unavoidable risk and uncertainty. (beyondintractability.org)
  • As more countries impose quarantines and social distancing, the fear of contagion and income losses is increasing uncertainty around the world. (imf.org)
  • Structural uncertainty Also known as model inadequacy, model bias, or model discrepancy, this comes from the lack of knowledge of the underlying physics in the problem. (wikipedia.org)
  • To equip participants with basic knowledge about pastoralism and uncertainty, as fundamental to thinking about governance and policy in contemporary times. (eldis.org)
  • Knowledge of uncertainty regarding the location and cal models. (cdc.gov)
  • I show that such uncertainty reduces the scope for welfare-improving interventions. (ssrn.com)
  • While improving network transparency potentially reduces this uncertainty, it does not always lead to welfare improvements. (ssrn.com)
  • I study the problem of regulating a network of interdependent financial institutions that is prone to contagion when there is uncertainty regarding its precise structure. (ssrn.com)
  • CALCULATE and REPORT measurement uncertainties for SOP 19 calibrations. (nist.gov)
  • Comparison of measurement results, reliable decision-making and conformity assessment require the evaluation of uncertainties associated with measurement results. (ptb.de)
  • Moreover, is this uncertainty properly factored in when interpreting the results? (bmj.com)
  • Uncertainty can cause tremendous anxiety . (psychologytoday.com)
  • A Coping with Pre - exams Anxiety and Uncertainty Measure (COPEAU) has been adapted to be used on Argentinean university students. (bvsalud.org)
  • If the uncertainty estimate passes a certain threshold, then the configuration is included in the data set. (nature.com)
  • Parasitologic surveys were cause uncertainties exist when delineating areas based on conducted in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, 2004-2006, the selected threshold. (cdc.gov)
  • The experimental uncertainty is inevitable and can be noticed by repeating a measurement for many times using exactly the same settings for all inputs/variables. (wikipedia.org)
  • The purpose of this webinar is to enable laboratory metrology staff to specify uncertainties for SOP 19 following the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, using SOP 29, SOP 19, and other applicable resources that will be provided. (nist.gov)
  • Uncertainty 99 was the Seventh International Workshop on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics and was presented by The Society for Artificial Intelligence & Statistics (opens in new tab) . (microsoft.com)
  • These studies should be released on a regular schedule, examine which areas of the tax system and the economy are volatile and why, and include recommendations for fiscal policies to manage uncertainty. (pewtrusts.org)
  • To construct the index, we tally the number of times "uncertainty" is mentioned near a word related to pandemics or epidemics in the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) country reports. (imf.org)
  • As of March 31, it is three times the size of the uncertainty during the 2002-03 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic and about 20 times the size during the Ebola outbreak. (imf.org)
  • Leading through uncertainty can seem impossible at times. (managers.org.uk)
  • Due to its disdain for uncertainty, your brain invents all sorts of untested stories hundreds of times a day to keep you safe. (psychologytoday.com)
  • Let me welcome you all on behalf of Suomen Pankki, the Bank of Finland, and our co-organisers from the European Investment Bank to this joint conference on investment in times of high uncertainty. (bis.org)
  • An algorithm was created to detect usage of a published set of uncertainty terms. (bvsalud.org)