• The main findings are: (1) Global financial risk shocks explain about 20 percent of movements both in the country spread and in the aggregate activity in emerging economies. (repec.org)
  • 2) The contribution of global risk-free interest rate shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies is negligible. (repec.org)
  • Its role, which was emphasized in the literature, is taken up by global financial risk shocks. (repec.org)
  • For countries in a monetary union such as the euro area, risk-sharing is particularly important because the single monetary policy is unable to address asymmetric shocks. (europa.eu)
  • With disjoint business cycles across countries, idiosyncratic shocks to EMU member states need to be insured through robust market or fiscal mechanisms. (europa.eu)
  • Reducing the volatility of aggregate consumption through various risk-sharing mechanisms can provide significant welfare gains for countries hit by specific shocks. (europa.eu)
  • Wage inequality arises from differences across individuals in their ability to learn new skills as well as from idiosyncratic shocks. (federalreserve.gov)
  • Specifically, we construct a life cycle model that features some key determinants of wages--most notably, human capital accumulation and idiosyncratic shocks. (federalreserve.gov)
  • Constrained Efficiency in the Neoclassical Growth Model With Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Shocks ," Econometrica , Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2431-2467, November. (repec.org)
  • Constrained efficiency in the neoclassical growth model with uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks ," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques b05066, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). (repec.org)
  • Constrained efficiency in the neoclassical growth model with uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks ," Post-Print halshs-00196183, HAL. (repec.org)
  • Marginalized households face seasonality every year and they lose their valuable assets to mitigate the adverse effect of natural calamities and idiosyncratic shocks. (uni-muenchen.de)
  • Using data for 19 OECD countries we show that labour market rigidities significantly increase consumption correlations and reduce the exposure to country-specific shocks. (isiarticles.com)
  • Firstly, the presence of an international insurance arrangement suggests that domestic consumption should not respond strongly to idiosyncratic shocks. (isiarticles.com)
  • Other proposed solutions include Stockman and Tesar (1995) who show that taste shocks in consumption potentially explain why international consumption correlations are low and Baxter and Crucini (1995) who argue that a complete markets model can generate low consumption correlations if shocks are persistent. (isiarticles.com)
  • After the age of 50, large negative shocks become a major source of earnings risk. (uc3m.es)
  • Large persistent positive shocks that occur early in the working life help to rationalize large wealth and consumption shares of the top one percent in an incomplete markets model. (uc3m.es)
  • This means 10-12% of the shocks to GDP are smoothed out via cross-border asset ownership within the EZ and hence not reflected in changes in consumption. (cepr.org)
  • Rest of the shocks to GDP is either smoothed ex-post via savings or not smoothed at all, directly affecting consumption. (cepr.org)
  • The baseline model is a stochastic neoclassical growth model featuring idiosyncratic and uninsurable productivity shocks and a cash-in-advance constraint on new in-vestments on the individual firm level. (hu-berlin.de)
  • Constrainted efficiency in the neoclassical growth model with uninsurable idiosyncratic skocks ," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00751900, HAL. (repec.org)
  • Our environment features in finitely lived individuals who are not subject to credit constraints but who face uninsurable idiosyncratic production risk. (cigs.canon)
  • This paper evaluates the role of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and wealth distribution in international risk sharing. (gsefm.eu)
  • We then build a monetary model with uninsurable risk, agents heterogeneous in income risk, talents and wealth and in which participation and occupational allocation decisions take place through a period-by-period discrete choice optimization on value functions across occupations. (gsefm.eu)
  • Time-Varying Wage Risk, Incomplete Markets, and Business Cycles. (kyoto-u.ac.jp)
  • The dynamics of net international capital flows in a HANK model featuring idiosyncratic income risk, distribution of wealth, and two types of assets (liquid and illiquid) traded with the rest of the world are determined by the relative strength of three effects: First, low consumption-smoothing ability of borrowing-constrained households dampens aggregate savings responses to business cycles. (gsefm.eu)
  • This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. (repec.org)
  • In theory, in a perfectly integrated world, full risk-sharing can be achieved where consumption in regions or countries grows at a constant pace and is insensitive to local fluctuations in income and wealth. (europa.eu)
  • Nonseparable preferences describe households' concern with composition risk, that is, fluctuations in the relative share of housing in their consumption basket. (repec.org)
  • Idiosyncratic Risk, Precautionary Motive, Endogenous Fluctuations. (ssrn.com)
  • In general, research on risk sharing in consumption investigates a number of explicit and implicit insurance mechanisms under which the consumption growth rate between households would differ because of changes in the earnings capacity and income, whether anticipated or not. (ucl.ac.uk)
  • Second, idiosyncratic risk increases the savings of unconstrained households. (gsefm.eu)
  • To do this, investment returns are held constant, and systematic longevity risk is omitted. (researchgate.net)
  • This paper considers the lifetime asset allocation problem with both idiosyncratic and systematic longevity risks, in which the stochastic mortality model is given by a general diffusion process. (pensjonsforum.net)
  • In an economy with a highly progressive personal income tax, a revenue-neutral shift from taxes to consumption taxes increases savings and output. (cirano.qc.ca)
  • On average, an extra dollar of unearned income in a given period reduces pre-tax labor earnings by about 50 cents, decreases total labor taxes by 10 cents, and increases consumption by 60 cents. (nber.org)
  • All substance use, inhalational substance use in particular, increases the risk of infection and also the risk of severe disease. (msdmanuals.com)
  • The researchers studied the effects of four tax reforms using a life-cycle model with overlapping generations and heterogeneous agents in the presence of idiosyncratic risk to labor and capital income under a complex tax system. (cirano.qc.ca)
  • Pinto after all the other hand, idiosyncratic drug-induced hepatotoxicity is usually modified by changing the the surface and neuronal function. (moorelifeurgentcare.com)
  • Global risk sentiment deteriorated sharply and market volatility surged as the coronavirus spread around the world towards the end of the review period (12 December 2019 to 11 March 2020). (europa.eu)
  • These 'safe' bubbles reduce consumption volatility but exert a contractionary effect on the economy. (cigs.canon)
  • Aggregate consumption is also higher, but the added volatility of consumption decreases lifetime utility. (hu-berlin.de)
  • Following Denuit (2019, ASTIN Bulletin , 49 , 591-617), participants are assumed to adopt the conditional mean risk sharing rule introduced in Denuit and Dhaene (2012, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics , 51 , 265-270) to assess their respective shares in mortality credits. (researchgate.net)
  • We ask whether a pay-as-you-go financed social security system is welfare improving in an economy with idiosyncratic productivity and aggregate business cycle risk. (safe-frankfurt.de)
  • 9] Rosenzweig, M and Wolpin, K., "Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investment in Bullocks in India", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 101, No. 2: 1993, pp223-244. (uni-muenchen.de)
  • Openness to international financial markets should allow residents of different countries to pool various risks by enabling them to trade (Arrow-Debreu) claims on international assets. (isiarticles.com)
  • Idiosyncratic risk shifts the composition of assets in favor of larger liquid asset investments. (gsefm.eu)
  • To obtain risk sharing benefits, the financial integration should involve cross-border ownership of assets, that is foreign investment in the form of equity ownership such as foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio equity flows. (cepr.org)
  • Global rates in turn followed UK gilts higher while risk assets struggled. (capitalgroup.com)
  • In addition, starting yields for many credit-related assets are noteworthy, though valuations may still cheapen given elevated recession risks in the near-term. (capitalgroup.com)
  • Theoretical studies suggest that unexpected changes in future survival probabilities, that is, longevity risk, are important determinants of individuals' decision making about consumption, saving, allocation of assets, and retirement timing. (pensjonsforum.net)
  • Moreover, public savings improves life cycle agents' welfare by encouraging a flatter allocation of consumption and leisure over their lifetimes. (repec.org)
  • 16] Duflo, E., & Udry, C. Intra-household resource allocation in Cote d'Ivoire: Social norms, separate accounts and consumption choices (NBER Working Paper No. w10498).2004. (uni-muenchen.de)
  • These results suggest that labour market rigidities improve the international sharing of consumption risks by fostering a more efficient intra-national allocation of risk. (isiarticles.com)
  • The higher interest rate encourages individuals to save and, hence, better self-insure against idiosyncratic labor earnings risk. (repec.org)
  • The resulting benefits for future generations come at the cost of higher wealth and consumption inequality because a few entrepreneurs will ex-post be successful while most entrepreneurs will fail. (financetheory.org)
  • In the case of complete markets and identical tastes and isoelastic preferences, it is implied that there is no idiosyncratic variation in the growth of individual consumption. (ucl.ac.uk)
  • This paper considers a consumption-based asset pricing model where housing is explicitly modeled both as an asset and as a consumption good. (repec.org)
  • According to this "expected inflation channel," government spending drives up expected inflation, which in turn, reduces the real interest rate and leads to an increase in private consumption. (repec.org)
  • Despite slowing growth and tightening financial conditions around the world, and projected return to fiscal balance in about two years, exports of tourism services and domestic economic activity, in particular private consumption, are expected to normalize as border control and other COVID-related restrictions have been lifted in both Hong Kong SAR and Mainland China, easing policy uncertainty. (imf.org)
  • This will be propelled by the availability of a Covid-19 vaccine and by the easing of mobility restrictions that will usher in a rebound in private consumption and external demand. (fitchsolutions.com)
  • Private consumption will drive Europe's GDP growth in 2021. (fitchsolutions.com)
  • [ 1 ] Consumption smoothing between countries, also known as risk-sharing, can increase welfare by hedging consumption against country-specific risks. (europa.eu)
  • We show analytically that the whole welfare benefit from joint insurance against both risks is greater than the sum of benefits from insurance against the isolated risk components. (safe-frankfurt.de)
  • One reason is the convexity of the welfare gain in total risk. (safe-frankfurt.de)
  • Accordingly, abstracting from the life cycle yields an optimal policy that reduces average welfare by more than 0.6% of expected lifetime consumption. (repec.org)
  • This implies a rapidly declining consumption and a deepening recession. (cepr.org)
  • Alcohol intoxication, also known in overdose as alcohol poisoning, commonly described as drunkenness or inebriation, is the behavior and physical effects caused by a recent consumption of alcohol. (wikipedia.org)
  • Housing, Consumption and Asset Pricing ," 2004 Meeting Papers 357c, Society for Economic Dynamics. (repec.org)
  • In addition to the previously identified risks related to geopolitical factors, rising protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets, the spread of the coronavirus adds a new and substantial source of downside risk to the growth outlook. (europa.eu)
  • We forecast an additional cut of 25 basis points (bps) to 4.0% in Russia, though we note that risks remain tilted to a longer interest rate hold against still-elevated geopolitical risks. (fitchsolutions.com)
  • In the first chapter of the thesis, the consumption insurance hypothesis is tested using the Euler equation framework and applying it on a utility function that is nonseparable in consumption and leisure. (ucl.ac.uk)
  • At the same time, however, the process of financial integration and capital market development that can enhance such risk-sharing may be accompanied by the emergence of new financial stability risks that could undermine the envisaged benefits. (europa.eu)
  • In order to make progress on how this balance can be struck, I shall first review the case for cross-country risk-sharing via capital markets, review the evidence for the euro area and consider how it can be enhanced. (europa.eu)
  • Normally, high levels of risk-sharing are achieved across jurisdictions within a country, or within a federation that represents a functioning political, economic, and monetary union. (europa.eu)
  • [ 2 ] Regions within federations in Europe exhibit high levels of risk-sharing, too. (europa.eu)
  • And, by reducing internal divergences and facilitating macroeconomic adjustment, risk-sharing can be beneficial for the monetary union as a whole. (europa.eu)
  • At this point it is quite clear that, in the foreseeable future, a number of mechanisms that have the potential to improve risk-sharing across countries will not progress quickly in Europe. (europa.eu)
  • Bidding for Contracts under Uncertain Demand: Skewed Bidding and Risk Sharing. (kyoto-u.ac.jp)
  • In this paper we examine the role of labour market rigidities in the context of international consumption risk sharing. (isiarticles.com)
  • Empirical evidence however strongly indicates that international risk sharing is rather limited. (isiarticles.com)
  • This column discusses the implications of equity versus debt flows in terms of risk sharing during the Crisis, and in terms of slow recovery in the aftermath of the Crisis. (cepr.org)
  • 2014). These financial intermediation patterns within the EZ were shown elsewhere and discussed extensively, but the implications of equity versus debt flows in terms of risk sharing during the Crisis and in terms of slow recovery in the aftermath of the Crisis have been overlooked. (cepr.org)
  • If the main form of financial integration is in terms of cross-border debt flows, such flows have no risk sharing benefits during a severe financial crisis. (cepr.org)
  • If such investment is limited, then risk sharing will depend on government and private savings. (cepr.org)
  • The problem then is that governments cannot provide risk sharing in the middle of a severe crisis unless they had saved in advance, leaving the burden of risk sharing during a crisis to private savings. (cepr.org)
  • Venture capital funds and taxes enhance risk sharing among entrepreneurs, stimulating innovation and growth unless high taxes deplete entrepreneurial capital. (financetheory.org)
  • Nevertheless, a tradeoff exists between risk-sharing and the exertion of costly effort, giving rise to a hump-shaped economic growth curve when plotted against tax rates. (financetheory.org)
  • For large groups, we derive simple, hierarchical approximations of the conditional mean risk sharing rule. (researchgate.net)
  • Luckily, there are several transfer mechanisms that mitigate these gaps in GDP growth so that consumption shortfalls in red states amount to only about one-fifth of the growth deficits. (cfainstitute.org)
  • Capital markets are the most important tool to mitigate consumption gaps from one year to the next and from one state to another. (cfainstitute.org)
  • Hence, our model provides a potential explanation for the "entrepreneurial puzzle" in which entrepreneurs choose to innovate despite taking on substantial idiosyncratic risk accompanied by low expected returns. (financetheory.org)
  • Specific examples concentrating on the consumption correlation puzzle include Backus et al. (isiarticles.com)
  • Their model suggests lower than perfect consumption correlations, but the predicted correlation is still higher than that found in the data. (isiarticles.com)
  • Unfortunately, the correlation between the 2 risk classification systems is poor. (medscape.com)
  • In addition, rigid labour markets may help to enforce implicit contracts that shift risk from employees to owners of firms, who, in turn, may diversify risk internationally. (isiarticles.com)
  • The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook are clearly on the downside. (europa.eu)
  • Developments since the cut-off date for the projections suggest that the downside risk to global activity related to the COVID-19 outbreak has partly materialised, implying that global activity this year will be weaker than envisaged in the projections. (europa.eu)
  • The risks to global activity have changed, but their balance remains tilted to the downside. (europa.eu)
  • At the moment, the most acute downside risk relates to the potentially broader and longer impact of the COVID-19 outbreak as it continues to evolve. (europa.eu)
  • Downside risks to growth will remain prominent, and long-standing idiosyncratic structural challenges and political risk will constrain momentum. (fitchsolutions.com)
  • Moreover, our view for a consumption-led economic recovery is subject to elevated downside risks, which stem from failure to bring the spread of the virus under control over the next few quarters. (fitchsolutions.com)
  • Differences in GDP growth also lead to differences in household income and household consumption - i.e., in living standards. (cfainstitute.org)
  • 2] Chaudhuri, S and Paxon, C., "Smoothing consumption under income seasonality: Buffer stock vs. credit. (uni-muenchen.de)
  • 14] Morduch, J., "Income smoothing and consumption smoothing. (uni-muenchen.de)
  • This work is a component of a larger project on income risk in the United States, conducted through the SOI Joint Statistical Research Program. (nber.org)
  • Opportunistic income smoothing can in turn signal lower risk and increase a firm's market value. (icci.pk)
  • The focus is on quantifying the effect of the number of members, which drives the level of idiosyncratic longevity risk in the fund, on the income stability. (researchgate.net)
  • In the first chapter, a test of the consumption insurance hypothesis is conducted, controlling for nonseparability between male leisure and household consumption in the utility function. (ucl.ac.uk)
  • An Euler equation approach is adopted where the results from the Euler equation of consumption are used to construct the growth of the log of marginal utility to be finally be used to test the consumption insurance hypothesis. (ucl.ac.uk)
  • The results indicate towards a rejection of the consumption insurance hypothesis for the quarterly series. (ucl.ac.uk)
  • Therefore, in order to reap the benefits of a true Capital Markets Union (CMU), we need to provide the conditions under which capital markets can flourish, whilst at the same time making sure that regulatory and supervisory measures keep financial stability risks in check. (europa.eu)
  • Thus, they should be considered second-line agents and only after hemodynamic stability and risks of alcohol withdrawal have been addressed with benzodiazepines. (medscape.com)
  • Consumption and labour supply: relaxing the intertemporal and intratemporal separability assumptions. (ucl.ac.uk)
  • Because the proper modelling of labour supply is beyond the scope of this study, leisure is treated as a conditional variable in the equation for consumption. (ucl.ac.uk)
  • In the US, consumption held up relatively well amid rising wages, tight labour markets and credit growth. (capitalgroup.com)
  • 7. Alcohol consumption should not remain any lumps ness. (moorelifeurgentcare.com)
  • Women planning to become pregnant should avoid all alcohol consumption, smoking, and use of illegal drugs (eg, cocaine) before and during the pregnancy, because these activities may have serious deleterious effects on the fetus. (medscape.com)
  • Differently from KM, I assume that prices and wages are sticky and show that this feature of the model is key for the financial shock to generate procyclical movements in labor inputs, consumption and investment. (federalreserve.gov)
  • After a very high level of consumption[vague], the respiratory system becomes depressed and the person will stop breathing. (wikipedia.org)
  • 2004) argue that the high consumption correlations obtained in theoretical models are a major puzzle for international business cycle models and their most important shortcoming when compared to real world data. (isiarticles.com)
  • This takes us a step further to a situation where consumption may be waning, but the Fed thinks inflation is near their target because of high imputed rent inflation. (idiosyncraticwhisk.com)
  • Two household-level surveys were used to calibrate the model devised in this paper to a wealth-rich low idiosyncratic risk and a wealth-poor high idiosyncratic risk economies. (gsefm.eu)
  • The table viagra womens generic is based on high risk or presence of neurologic deficits or loss of consciousness: Massive hives and arthrography is radiographic visualization of the oral dosage forms. (moorelifeurgentcare.com)
  • The question how individuals should (optimally) annuitize their wealth remains of high relevance in light of longevity risk and volatile capital markets. (researchgate.net)
  • Drug provocation test (DPT) is considered as the gold standard for diagnosis, although contraindicated in high-risk patients. (bvsalud.org)
  • This capital cost can be reduced by hedging longevity risk with longevity swaps, a form of reinsurance. (pensjonsforum.net)
  • Risk factors include a social situation where heavy drinking is common and a person having an impulsive personality. (wikipedia.org)
  • This unexplained variance might be truly random, or due to idiosyncratic factors impossible to compare. (lesswrong.com)
  • Questionnaires evaluated the association between a variety of lifestyle, behavioral (i.e., hobbies and activities), and occupational factors and the risk of ALS, including the duration of time between exposure and ALS onset, and exposure frequency. (cdc.gov)
  • Minimize bias due to risk factors other than drinking water exposures. (cdc.gov)
  • Workers' uncertainty over future employment prospects, especially in countries with limited scope for additional policy support, will continue to weigh on consumption as consumers factor in lower job security in the future into their spending behaviour. (fitchsolutions.com)
  • While valuations have broadly improved, we remain measured in our risk posture given the rising uncertainty in the global outlook. (capitalgroup.com)
  • Even so, compelling idiosyncratic opportunities remain as improved compensation can help balance macro uncertainty. (capitalgroup.com)
  • Alcohol idiosyncratic intoxication is an unusual condition that occurs when a small amount of alcohol produces intoxication that results in aggression, impaired consciousness, prolonged sleep, transient hallucinations, illusions, and delusions. (medscape.com)
  • The ASLI title is an indication that the holder has demonstrated knowledge related to policyholders who have previously gone through losses and insuring unusual risks. (thebusinessprofessor.com)
  • Since the housing share moves slowly, a concern with composition risk induces low frequency movements in stock prices that are not driven by news about cash flow. (repec.org)
  • The presence of composition risk also implies that the riskless rate is low which further helps the model improve on the standard CCAPM. (repec.org)
  • The second most critical tool to smooth consumption in red states is fiscal transfers. (cfainstitute.org)
  • They are economic (consumption, balance sheet shrinkage and fiscal deficit reduction). (skyboundwealth.co.uk)
  • Through such arrangements countries may trade idiosyncratic risk, which should have two impacts. (isiarticles.com)
  • One of the main reasons why financial integration is beneficial is that integrated financial markets help support constant consumption growth "in good and in bad states" of the world. (europa.eu)
  • The aim is to investigate whether the restrictive way in which leisure enters the equation for the growth of consumption affects the acceptance or rejection of the theory. (ucl.ac.uk)
  • Secondly, the trading of risk internationally suggests that consumption growth rates should be highly correlated across countries (see for example Lewis, 1999 and Obstfeld and Rogoff, 2000). (isiarticles.com)
  • In addition, the war in Ukraine poses significant risks to food and energy prices, as well as to global economic growth. (newyorkfed.org)
  • The second chapter investigates the effect of durability and habit formation on consumption in a dynamic almost ideal demand system, and shows that time effects are still significant when household heterogeneity is taken into account. (ucl.ac.uk)
  • Euro area long-term risk-free rates declined markedly to levels significantly lower than at the start of the period. (europa.eu)
  • RESULTS: Head trauma was associated with increased ALS risk (adjusted OR 1.60 95% CI 1.04-2.45), with significantly greater effects for injuries occurring 10 or more years prior to symptom onset (p=0.037). (cdc.gov)
  • This will introduce risk, but it will also stem the wild flow of funds to private equity, venture capital, financial fads, and certain nascent digital businesses. (troweprice.com)
  • And, they think the risk is toward more inflation because of the low unemployment rate and Phillips Curve thinking. (idiosyncraticwhisk.com)
  • We produce indicators and datasets to inform the public, policymakers, and researchers about economic conditions, including inflation, employment, and risks to the financial system. (clevelandfed.org)
  • Their model generates consumption correlations that are also substantially lower than in a complete markets model. (isiarticles.com)
  • 1 Both with FDI and portfolio equity investment, foreign equity investors share the risk when the stock market plummets and companies lay off workers since profits of the businesses go down. (cepr.org)
  • The results indicate that nonseparability between consumption and leisure cannot be rejected, and that durability and habit effects are once again significant not only for commodity demands but also for male leisure. (ucl.ac.uk)
  • But there are also idiosyncratic components that have distinct effects for the U.S. economy. (newyorkfed.org)
  • During this consultation, the patient can be advised about the possible risks associated with her condition during pregnancy and about the possible teratogenic effects of her medications. (medscape.com)
  • These products put adolescents who do initiate substance use at higher risk of developing both acute and long-term consequences. (msdmanuals.com)