Cyclical fluctuations idiosyncratic shocks. Medical search. Frequent questions

These models took the position that fluctuations in aggregate economic activity are actually an "efficient response" of the economy to exogenous shocks. (wikipedia.org)
According to the model estimation, exogenous shocks to the intermediation spread explain 35% of GDP and 60% of investment volatility. (federalreserve.gov)
In my theoretical framework, trading of financial assets occurs through banks and exogenous shocks can affect the financial intermediation technology. (federalreserve.gov)
While the economic forecast for 2023 looks favorable, the country remains dependent on terms of trade and thus exposed to many exogenous shocks. (nkafu.org)

Fifth, small cyclical variations in frequency did not contribute much to fluctuations in aggregate inflation, which instead mainly reflected shifts in the average size of price changes. (europa.eu)
Consistent with idiosyncratic shocks as the main driver of price changes, aggregate disturbances affected inflation by shifting the relative number of firms increasing or decreasing their prices, rather than the size of price increases and decreases. (europa.eu)
Since we last shared our Cyclical Outlook in June ( "Inflation Inflection" ), the robust global recovery has continued, although unevenly across regions and sectors. (pimco.com.sg)
L atin America faces a raft of structural challenges, including high debt levels and inflation, low productivity growth, and political uncertainty, leaving it vulnerable, in our view, to potential shocks. (pimco.ae)
First, the war was an "anti-Goldilocks" economic shock, whereby accelerating inflation would be accompanied by slower (or even negative) real GDP growth. (pimco.co.uk)
And fifth, with inflation and government debt already elevated as a result of the pandemic, the fiscal response to the shock would likely be limited. (pimco.co.uk)
There remains a significant set of exposures that should benefit from (or at least not be hurt by) moderate inflation: the more traditionally cyclical/"value" parts of FPA's equity book, as well as a lot of the structured credit in the DoubleLine and Loomis Sayles portfolios, much of which is floating rate and more economically sensitive, thus likely to benefit overall from inflation that might accompany stronger economic growth. (imgpfunds.com)
Blackstone should be relatively neutral to inflation since their credit default swap (CDS) book is driven by credit spreads rather than rates, and at the company level, inflation will have idiosyncratic impacts, which should be beneficial in terms of the opportunity set for security selection. (imgpfunds.com)

Net flows from unemployment into employment are at cyclical peaks. (idiosyncraticwhisk.com)
Looking at the last chart, most cyclical movement in unemployment comes from job losers. (idiosyncraticwhisk.com)
2) The theoretical model of employment reallocation and business cycles is suggestive of how both aggregate and allocative disturbances can drive fluctuations in job creation, job destruction, unemployment, productivity, and output. (repec.org)
Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances? (repec.org)
Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment ," Journal of Political Economy , University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-793, August. (repec.org)
Our baseline cyclical forecast includes shallow recessions and rising unemployment across large developed markets, with growth unlikely to bounce back quickly. (pimco.co.uk)

Differently from KM, I assume that prices and wages are sticky and show that this feature of the model is key for the financial shock to generate procyclical movements in labor inputs, consumption and investment. (federalreserve.gov)
These results highlight how direct measures of consumption distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated shocks to income whereas measures of expenditures obscure the distinction. (uchicago.edu)

Shocks that affect the degree of efficiency of the financial system in allocating private savings to productive needs can have large effects on capital accumulation and aggregate activity. (federalreserve.gov)
The main findings are: (1) Global financial risk shocks explain about 20 percent of movements both in the country spread and in the aggregate activity in emerging economies. (repec.org)
An equilibrium model of the labor market with directed search, multidimensional sorting, learning about skills, and aggregate shocks accounts for the cyclical dynamics of skill mismatch and occupational switching in the US. (isaacbaley.com)
Firm idiosyncratic uncertainty is a key determinant of micro pricing behavior and aggregate price flexibility. (isaacbaley.com)
Corporate income tax cuts improve the allocation of capital, decrease aggregate Tobin's q, and slow down capital fluctuations. (isaacbaley.com)
This paper investigates the connection between the heterogeneity of establishment-level employment changes and aggregate fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. (repec.org)
Do Shocks to Intermediaries' Balance Sheet Impact Aggregate Risk Premium? (umn.edu)
As such, we believe the region in aggregate will likely remain vulnerable to any new shocks. (pimco.ae)

This third wave sampled about 25,000 firms in 25 European countries with the aim of assessing how firms adjusted wages and employment in response to the various shocks and labour market reforms that took place in the European Union (EU) during the period 2010-13. (europa.eu)
In January 2023, the Cameroonian government took several measures to strengthen the resilience of the economy to various shocks. (nkafu.org)

I assume that these intermediation costs vary exogenously over time and interpret these disturbances as financial shocks. (federalreserve.gov)
4) Interdependence between economic activity and the country spread is a key mechanism through which global financial shocks are transmitted to emerging economies. (repec.org)

I use Bayesian methods, as in ( Smets & Wouters, 2007 ) and ( An & Schorfheide, 2007 ) to estimate a log-linearized version of the model buffeted by a series of random disturbances, including the financial intermediation shock, on a sample of US macroeconomic time series that spans from 1989 to 2010. (federalreserve.gov)
What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations? (repec.org)
This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. (repec.org)
2) The contribution of global risk-free interest rate shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies is negligible. (repec.org)

The only sources of uncertainty in these models are "shocks" in technology. (wikipedia.org)
Uncertainty has become an ongoing theme in markets, economies, and communities everywhere, and in this environment, PIMCO investment professionals gathered - virtually, once again - for our recent Cyclical Forum. (pimco.com.sg)

When agents make lumpy choices (investment, price-setting…), we show that two steady-state statistics, easily computed with microdata, predict how the economy responds to macro shocks and inform the size of adjustment frictions. (isaacbaley.com)

Using a difference-in-difference approach, and with careful attention to sample selection issues, we find that mainland Chinese firm-level investment is negatively affected by contractionary U.S. monetary policy shocks and that firms in the Connect are more adversely affected than those outside of it. (federalreserve.gov)

RBC theory builds on the neoclassical growth model, under the assumption of flexible prices, to study how real shocks to the economy might cause business cycle fluctuations. (wikipedia.org)
Reliance on firm size dynamics and shocks intermediated through neoclassical production functions yields large returns to labor mobility that are robust to parameter perturbations, while the reliance on labor economics statistics to calibrate per-worker productivity processes can give rise to fragilities. (isaacbaley.com)

3) Country spread shocks explain about 15 percent of the business cycles in emerging economies. (repec.org)

The "representative consumer" assumption can either be taken literally or reflect a Gorman aggregation of heterogenous consumers who are facing idiosyncratic income shocks and complete markets in all assets. (wikipedia.org)
D espite a confluence of unprecedented shocks, emerging markets (EM) have shown resilience, with few signs of a broad-based crisis. (pimco.com)
To understand what this misery could mean for economies, markets, and investors, it's useful to remind ourselves of the initial conditions and recent developments since our last Cyclical Forum in March. (pimco.co.uk)

There are two types of shocks: (1) a news-shock that affects investment demand (and so looks like an AD shock), and (2) a productivity shock that affects the ex post return on capital (and so looks like an AS shock). (blogspot.com)

DSGE econometric modelling applies general equilibrium theory and microeconomic principles in a tractable manner to postulate economic phenomena, such as economic growth and business cycles, as well as policy effects and market shocks. (wikipedia.org)

This paper studies the effect of shocks to firms' internal resources on business success. (umn.edu)

Such an analysis will help to highlight the relevance of economic policies coordination for strengthening the resilience of the economy's towards internal and external shocks. (nkafu.org)

Adverse health shocks can generate social instability and violence when governments are not able to respond to them. (unil.ch)

Ex ante , agents want to avoid transfers of wealth stemming from uninsurable price-level shocks interacting with nominal debt. (blogspot.com)

This challenge has been met by a number of papers in the economics literature, which exploit major shocks to early-life health in the forms of famine and epidemics. (lu.se)

Is the financial sector an important source of business cycle fluctuations? (federalreserve.gov)
First, because of their marked pro-cyclicality, durables can help in tracking - and possibly anticipating - the state of the business cycle in the euro area, thus complementing the signal from other pro-cyclical demand components, such as investment. (europa.eu)

The EU cannot affect the overall cyclical movement of interest rates and will have to learn to live with it, like sovereigns do. (ciaonet.org)

I find that financial sector shocks account for 35% and 60% of output and investment volatility, respectively. (federalreserve.gov)
The estimation results show that approximately 35% of the variance of output and 60% of the variance of investment can be explained by financial intermediation shocks. (federalreserve.gov)
There is a "sticky" nominal price in the economy: the nominal interest rate on government paper cannot be made contingent on any contemporaneous information (in particular, the expectations shocks that afflict investment demand). (blogspot.com)

Externally, the economy, like all economies open to the rest of the world, has suffered the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and more recently, has had to cope with the economic shock caused by the war in Ukraine. (nkafu.org)
Q: From a fundamentals perspective, are banks today better equipped to cope with such a large economic shock? (pimco.lu)

Pretty much everything that could go wrong for EM did in 2022, with pandemic pressures exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, the Fed rapidly hiking rates, high energy and food prices, China's zero-COVID policy, the rise of populist regimes, and idiosyncratic climate problems. (pimco.com)

Here I show the portfolio impulse response of equity mutual funds to an expected excess return shock is higher and more persistent than estimated when ignoring the zeros. (unil.ch)

We discussed these and other factors at length at our Cyclical Forum in September in Newport Beach. (pimco.co.uk)

Stochastic: The models take into consideration the transmission of random shocks into the economy and the subsequent economic fluctuations. (wikipedia.org)
These secular themes appear to be playing out over the cyclical horizon as well: Much of the global economy has transitioned quickly from an early cycle recovery to a mid-cycle expansion, necessitating a faster policy shift from the extraordinarily easy conditions that prevailed in 2020 and 2021, in our view. (pimco.com.sg)

[8] Early hedge funds sought to hedge specific investments against general market fluctuations by shorting the market, hence the name. (hmong.es)

Its role, which was emphasized in the literature, is taken up by global financial risk shocks. (repec.org)
The global economic shutdown led to a sudden shock in gross domestic product (GDP), the worst many people have ever seen. (pimco.lu)

T en years of regulation and improvement in fundamentals explain how banks have shifted from contributing to an economic crisis, to helping solve one. (pimco.lu)

Third, price setting is mildly state-dependent: the probability of price adjustment rises with the size of price misalignment, mainly reflecting idiosyncratic shocks, but it does not increase very sharply. (europa.eu)

Further, the magnitude of this heterogeneity varies significantly over time, most of the variation is due to time variation in the idiosyncratic component of establishment growth rates, and the variation is significantly countercyclical. (repec.org)

A supply shock in housing is causing wage gains to go to rent. (idiosyncraticwhisk.com)

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