• We examine the effect of cyclical job displacement during the Great Recession on the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program. (nber.org)
  • We find the Great Recession induced nearly one million SSDI applications that otherwise would not have been filed, of which 41.8 percent were awarded benefits, resulting in over 400,000 new beneficiaries who made up 8.9 percent of all SSDI entrants between 2008-2012. (nber.org)
  • Our estimates imply the Great Recession increased claims processing costs by $2.960 billion during 2008-2012, and SSDI benefit obligations by $55.730 billion in present value, or $97.365 billion including both SSDI and Medicare benefits. (nber.org)
  • This lengthy sequence of monthly declines, reminiscent of the period leading up to the 2007-2008 Great Recession, bolsters the Conference Board's conviction about an impending recession. (etftrends.com)
  • Kudlow, however, expressed the same level of optimism ahead of the Great Recession, dismissing worries over an impending housing crash and writing in December 2007 that "there's no recession coming" and that the "pessimistas were wrong," predictions Todd threw back in the Trump adviser's face. (thedailybeast.com)
  • The Great Recession Is Over! (economicpopulist.org)
  • The National Bureau of Economic Research has declared an end of the Great Recession. (economicpopulist.org)
  • So, in other words, the NBER are calling the end of the Great Recession, but leave widely open the possibility of a double dip recession . (economicpopulist.org)
  • The IWPR/Rockefeller Survey of Economic Security, like several other recent surveys, finds that the effects of the 2007-2009 recession, known as the Great Recession, are both broad and deep. (iwpr.org)
  • On almost every measure of insecurity and hardship the survey reveals the Great Recession has visited more hardship on women than it has on men. (iwpr.org)
  • Five years after the Great Recession, Honeywell's CEO Dave Cote and his executive team reflect on the choices they made to manage costs and earnings forecasts during that uncertain time. (hbr.org)
  • This paper leverages unique administrative social security data from Italy and quasi-experimental variation in STW policy rules to offer evidence on the effects of STW on firms' and workers' outcomes during the Great Recession. (restud.com)
  • The set of fiscal con- solidations that occurred in Europe following the Maastricht convergence criteria, the creation of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the extraordinary fis- cal stimulus packages implemented during and after the Great Recession, inter alia, entailed a shift in the vision of fiscal policy in the European Union (EU). (lu.se)
  • Related with that, an extra debate arose based on questioning the influence of the components of fiscal policy on multiple economic and social indicators, specifically after the Great Recession. (lu.se)
  • As far as current recession (economic downturn) is concerned, evolutions in the demand side play a greater role as compared with the previous recessionary situations. (wikipedia.org)
  • These sanctions have contributed to Iran's economic downturn (recession) in several ways, including the sharp decline in oil revenues, exchange rate jumps and the volatility thereof, dominance of a multi-rate exchange system, limitations imposed on financial and commodity exchanges with foreign countries (as a result of sanctions), increased risks and uncertainty, and decreased economic security. (wikipedia.org)
  • Meet the Press" host Chuck Todd noted that Kudlow wrote in December 2007 that there was "no recession coming" just months before a massive downturn. (politico.com)
  • Recession risks are high, but I think that if we do suffer one over the next year or two, it will be a more typical, relatively mild economic downturn. (newsmax.com)
  • Compared with LTEs, SMTEs face much greater risk, especially during an economic downturn. (hindawi.com)
  • Appearing on NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday, President Trump's chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow waved off concerns that the American economy could soon be facing a downturn. (thedailybeast.com)
  • The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007. (economicpopulist.org)
  • The problem is the downturn was so severe, pretty much anything pulling out of that nosedive, in terms of economic cycles, looks positive. (economicpopulist.org)
  • Demand for new labour is likely to decline in view of the economic downturn. (iwh-halle.de)
  • Academy of Management Review, 40(4), 515-537) with these two logics ( economic downturn and disaster) to suggest that health and economic threats within the COVID-19 pandemic operate with potentially opposing forces on helping-related outcomes. (cdc.gov)
  • The central bank said on Aug. 27 that the economy had entered a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. (foxbusiness.com)
  • It means the nation could avoid falling into a technical recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. (yahoo.com)
  • Ms. Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, Deputy Managing Director, KASIKORN Research Center Co., Ltd. (KResearch), holds the view that the US economy is set to plunge into a technical recession once more from the end of 2022 to early 2023. (kasikornresearch.com)
  • The 2023 recession will feel much worse than the economic impact of the pandemic," said labour market economist John Philpott. (theweek.com)
  • More specifically, the Conference Board is projecting a short and shallow recession spanning from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 due to the index's indications of slowing economic activity. (etftrends.com)
  • OAKLAND, Calif.--( BUSINESS WIRE )--While financial analysts have downgraded the likelihood of a recession to 20% in the next 12 months, lingering recessionary fears are causing consumers to still cut spending according to the Q3 2023 Consumer Pulse Report released today by Marqeta , the global modern card issuing platform. (businesswire.com)
  • The UK economy is on course to eke out growth of 0.4% over 2023, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) predicted in its latest quarterly economic forecast. (yahoo.com)
  • For example, the combined economic output in 2022 and 2023 should be EUR 160 billion lower than it had been expected in the spring. (iwh-halle.de)
  • Even though GDP growth for 2023 may accelerate to 3.2-4.2 percent, close attention should be paid to multiple risks, namely runaway inflation, rising interest rate trends and economic slowdowns among Thailand's trading partners. (kasikornresearch.com)
  • Loans within the Thai commercial banking system are expected to grow within a range of 4.5-6.0 percent in 2023, versus the 5.0-percent growth projected for 2022, or relatively moderate growth amid increased economic uncertainty. (kasikornresearch.com)
  • Although the economic situation has somewhat improved after the pandemic in 2021, the World Bank estimates that global economic growth will decrease to 1,7% in 2023, which is the third weakest in nearly three decades. (lu.se)
  • Against this background, the odds of a recession in the United States over the next year don't appear very high, though the economy could be subject to external shocks-international events, such as terrorist attacks, oil embargoes, and oil-price increases, for example, have provoked recessions in the past. (city-journal.org)
  • I would put the odds of a recession beginning in the next 12 months at about 1 in 3, and probably close to even odds over the next couple of years,'' Zandi said on the network's ''Washington Journal. (newsmax.com)
  • According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index , consumer prices increased by 6.3% from April 2021 to April 2022. (newsmax.com)
  • Countries in recession experience high unemployment rates and a decline in living conditions, which, it has been suggested, negatively influences their populations' health. (nih.gov)
  • The evidence was consistent that economic recessions and mediators such as unemployment, income decline, and unmanageable debts are significantly associated with poor mental wellbeing, increased rates of common mental disorders, substance-related disorders, and suicidal behaviours. (nih.gov)
  • Exploiting variation in the severity and timing of the recession across states, we estimate the effect of unemployment on SSDI applications and awards. (nber.org)
  • Primary impacts are direct and will mostly be seen in the family economic well-being domain through unemployment of one or both spouses, income stagnation, loss of health insurance coverage, and so on. (prb.org)
  • due to the shortage of personnel in many sectors, no increase in unemployment is expected despite the economic crisis. (iwh-halle.de)
  • It has also been theorised that economic pressure and unemployment have a devastating impact on families, in particular children, since the family is the most important context for their healthy development [ 19 , 20 ]. (biomedcentral.com)
  • A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, and we care about recession as it increases the level of unemployment. (ifamagazine.com)
  • In order to suffer the economic consequences of recession, we need to have an increase in unemployment. (ifamagazine.com)
  • How economic recessions and unemployment affect illegal drug use: a systematic realist literature review. (drugsandalcohol.ie)
  • Nagelhout, Gera E and Hummel, Karin and de Goeij, Moniek C M and de Vries, Hein and Kaner, Eileen and Lemmens, Paul (2017) How economic recessions and unemployment affect illegal drug use: a systematic realist literature review. (drugsandalcohol.ie)
  • This paper reviews the literature on how economic recessions and unemployment affect the use of illegal drugs among adults. (drugsandalcohol.ie)
  • A systematic search was performed in EconLit, Embase, Medline, PsycINFO, SocIndex, and Web of Science for studies examining mechanisms explaining how recessions or unemployment affect illegal drug use. (drugsandalcohol.ie)
  • Most evidence (17 studies) was found for the counter-cyclical mechanism that recessions and unemployment increase psychological distress, which increases drug use. (drugsandalcohol.ie)
  • CONCLUSION: The current evidence is in line with the hypothesis that drug use increases in times of recession because unemployment increases psychological distress which increases drug use. (drugsandalcohol.ie)
  • We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during the times of recession and recovery. (economics-ejournal.org)
  • The universal shape of economic recession and recovery after a shock Damien Challet, Sorin Solomon and Gur Yaari They report that the superposition of two exponential functions with three parameters (1) fits the evolution of the GDP during the times of recession and recovery. (economics-ejournal.org)
  • During times of recession, psychological support for those who lost their job and are vulnerable to drug use (relapse) is likely to be important. (drugsandalcohol.ie)
  • On Thursday, gross domestic product (GDP) estimates indicated that the US economy contracted for two consecutive quarters, stirring concerns that the country may be headed towards a recession. (aljazeera.com)
  • According to commentators, sanctions imposed by the US and the European Union are pushing Russia towards a recession. (cobdencentre.org)
  • Last week, South Korea officially went into recession , while Australia also recorded its largest budget deficit since the Second World War. (valuewalk.com)
  • Gross Domestic Production (GDP) for Peru grew by 41.9% The government stated that the second quarter of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020, heralding the end of the recession caused by the pandemic. (sundayvision.co.ug)
  • This has become clear after the economic recessions caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which have led to enormous economic setbacks. (lu.se)
  • Clearly, a better understanding of recession in the economy of Iran is crucial in economic policies. (wikipedia.org)
  • Recording a growth of -5.8 percent in 2012, Iran's economy experienced the steepest recession since the end of Iran-Iraq War. (wikipedia.org)
  • When oil revenues are high, the country's economy is afloat, but as soon as a substantial reduction in oil revenues occurs, the economy faces a negative shock followed by a sharp decline in economic growth. (wikipedia.org)
  • When this happens, it takes about a year, on average, for the U.S. economy to slip into a recession. (theeconomiccollapseblog.com)
  • In appearances on the news show circuit, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro and chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow rattled off a list of positive statistics about the economy under Trump. (politico.com)
  • The managing director of the International Monetary Fund urged Tunisia to speed up reforms of its economy, as the North African country slid into a recession following devastating terrorist attacks. (foxbusiness.com)
  • America's economy has been expanding at modest annual rates since the last recession ended in mid-2009-but the U.S. has not achieved an annual growth rate of 3 percent over the course of the current recovery. (city-journal.org)
  • The UK economy battered and bruised by the fallout from the financial crisis as bankrupt banks sought a huge £500 billion bailout form the UK tax payer, was further hit today by the continuing contraction of Britain's industrial base as UK factory production continued to fall by 0.8% for a seven straight month, which acts as further confirmation of an imminent deep recession. (marketoracle.co.uk)
  • Economic indicators are released every week to help provide insight into the overall health of the U.S. economy. (etftrends.com)
  • Despite facing various challenges, such as higher interest rates, tightening credit conditions, inflation, and economic uncertainty, U.S. consumers have been fueling the economy for much of this year. (etftrends.com)
  • With the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting last week after an inverted yield curve indicated an upcoming recession, Kudlow forecast sunny days ahead for the economy. (thedailybeast.com)
  • It also posed a serious threat to the economy, and that led to an unprecedented economic policy response from the federal government. (brookings.edu)
  • The BCC's latest forecast shows the UK economy is continuing to teeter on the edge of a recession", Vicky Pryce, senior member of the BCC Economic Advisory Council said. (yahoo.com)
  • In an On The Economy blog post last week, we discussed a unique way to potentially identify turning points in the national economy from expansion to recession using state coincident indexes (SCIs) constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. (stlouisfed.org)
  • In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. (economicpopulist.org)
  • A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. (economicpopulist.org)
  • Finally, a two-sector theoretical model of recession and recovery illustrates how the severity and length of recession depends on the dynamics of transfer rate between the growing and failing parts of the economy. (economics-ejournal.org)
  • Taking the example of an economy whose all sectors shrink at the same rate and then recover for some reason, he argues that the first phase of such kind of recessions corresponds to setting both rates \lambda_+ and \lambda_- to the same value, hence that the fitting equation is not adequate for this case. (economics-ejournal.org)
  • It was the result of macro-economic policies in the United States - in particular, a tax cut for the rich which did not stimulate the economy - combined with the Iraqi war, which led to soaring oil prices. (veteransforcommonsense.org)
  • This leads to a period of deleveraging (i.e., debt reduction) across the financial and nonfinancial sectors of the economy and ultimately to lower economic activity. (econintersect.com)
  • The Russian attack on Ukraine and the resulting crisis on the energy markets are leading to a noticeable slump in the German economy,' says Torsten Schmidt, head of economic research at RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and spokesman for the Joint Economic Forecast Project Group. (iwh-halle.de)
  • The Joint Economic Forecast was prepared by the ifo Institute (Munich), the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), and RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research (Essen). (iwh-halle.de)
  • The Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) is a nonprofit private research institute established in 1963 to contribute to the development of the Japanese economy. (or.jp)
  • So from this perspective irrespective of sanctions, the Russian economy would have experienced a so-called economic slowdown, or even worse a recession. (cobdencentre.org)
  • The sharp declines in the LEI and CEI suggest that the U.S economy is now in recession territory," said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the Conference Board. (thebusinesstimes.com)
  • Given the next stage of the monetary cycle is set to be a period of tightening to slow the economy and suppress inflation, it makes sense for us to analyse the probability of recession as they bring significant rate and credit volatility. (ifamagazine.com)
  • Amid rising concerns about economic recession in many countries - the US in particular - the Thai economy has only just emerged from the doldrums. (kasikornresearch.com)
  • The purpose of this conference is to explore to what extent Swedish economic research provides insight and solutions on the ongoing developments in the area of European integration - specifically issues related to eco- nomic developments and economy-related policy areas. (lu.se)
  • but this would be much smaller than the last two recessions in 2008 and 2020. (theweek.com)
  • In response to recent volatility in the stock market, rising prices (and declining yields) for U.S. Treasury bonds, and difficulties in the trade relationship between the United States and China, some pundits and politicians are forecasting a recession in the U.S., timed to coincide with the 2020 presidential election. (city-journal.org)
  • None of the major institutional forecasters is looking ahead to a recession in 2019 or 2020. (city-journal.org)
  • Current forecasts for a recession among pundits are not based on facts or real conditions but on a belief in self-fulfilling prophecies-that by predicting a recession they can create one, and thus set the stage for Democratic victory in 2020. (city-journal.org)
  • The estimation method of the Recession Indicator has revised since the release in July 2020. (or.jp)
  • en & Kaya, 2020), but also income distribution (Bar- gain et al. (lu.se)
  • A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to slide, suggesting the coronavirus pandemic and related restrictions have triggered a recession. (thebusinesstimes.com)
  • Helping behaviors are considered critical for business and societal recovery in light of economic crises and natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic that has both economic and health disaster elements. (cdc.gov)
  • The COVID-19 pandemic had serious impact on the social, economic, psychological, and physical aspects of a large segment of the society, including women who were married or in stable relationships. (who.int)
  • The COVID-19 pandemic affected economic and developed countries but there was a return to normal social life as well as physical health. (who.int)
  • But the meagre growth level over a prolonged period of time is comparable to previous periods of economic shocks and recessions, such as the oil crises of the 1970s and the 2008 financial crisis, the BCC warned. (yahoo.com)
  • Our nonfinancial leverage indicator signals both the onset and duration of financial crises and their accompanying recessions more reliably at longer lead times than the private-credit-to-GDP ratio. (econintersect.com)
  • The conflicting impact of COVID-19's health and economic crises on helping. (cdc.gov)
  • These findings have implications for helping during crises that involve economic and/or disaster elements. (cdc.gov)
  • There is lack of evidence on the impact of past economic crises on health in Africa. (who.int)
  • Temporary fluctuations in fertility rates decrease in income had social costs, such as psychological have been observed previously in other crises in many problems, loss of confidence, and alienation from the countries, such as the global economic recession in 2008, environment. (who.int)
  • The 'R' word often strikes terror in the minds of the public, but recession does not necessarily imply economic disaster," said Roger Bootle of Capital Economics in The Daily Telegraph . (theweek.com)
  • We are most grateful for the time he took reading our manuscript and also for writing a kind crash course of Economics' view on the mechanisms underlying various types of recessions. (economics-ejournal.org)
  • Financial Partners CU hosted its highly anticipated Seventh Annual Economic Forum this week, with a keynote address from renowned economist on California and the United States - Christopher Thornberg, founder of Beacon Economics. (ccul.org)
  • Paper prepared for the Meeting of the Committee of Experts of the Second Joint Annual Meeting of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economics and Finance and ECA Conference of Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development held in Cairo, Egypt 2-5 June 2009. (who.int)
  • Appearing on "This Week," Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), who is running for president, disagreed with Navarro's economic outlook, saying she was "concerned" about the possibility of a recession and so were the people she'd met on the campaign trail. (politico.com)
  • According to the survey, despite an improved economic outlook, consumers are feeling the crunch as living costs remain high. (businesswire.com)
  • The main reason for the deterioration in the economic outlook is the reduced gas export from Russia, which has eliminated a significant part of the gas supply and increased the risk that the remaining supply and storage volumes will not be sufficient to meet the demand during the coming winter. (iwh-halle.de)
  • However, with the prolonged Russia's invasion of Ukraine and no end insights of surge in resource prices, Economic outlook is uncertain. (or.jp)
  • World economic outlook database. (who.int)
  • In addition to showing cycles of economic growth and demand, capacity utilization also serves as a leading indicator of inflation, rendering it a closely monitored measure of economic health. (etftrends.com)
  • Check out this paper on grocery prices and inflation expectations , or this paper on the impact of gender roles on economic expectations to learn more about CPI. (npr.org)
  • Governors across the US are battling to manage new Covid-19 outbreaks , particularly across the Southern and Western states, while fighting on other fronts to stave off the specter of ever-deepening recession. (valuewalk.com)
  • You can see the full break down and the full top ten list of states most likely to stave off economic recession here . (hot975fm.com)
  • This paper presents a modeling method for analyzing a small transportation company's start-up and growth during a global economic crisis which had an impact on China which is designed to help the owners make better investment and operating decisions with limited data. (hindawi.com)
  • The dashed black line is the two-year-ahead prediction threshold for a financial crisis (panel A) and a recession (panel B) calculated for the nonfinancial leverage subindex, as explained in the text. (econintersect.com)
  • Fit Small Business which is an online publication that serves small businesses released a report listing the states that are most likely to have success in surviving through another economic crisis. (hot975fm.com)
  • Excellencies, honourable delegates, ladies and gentlemen, I understand the serious outbreak of this novel virus, but I am not going to speculate on the snowball effects of the current double burden of the economic and health crisis. (who.int)
  • Economic crisis research suggests that such events are associated with less helping, whereas disaster research suggests that such events are associated with greater helping. (cdc.gov)
  • Consistent with economic crisis logic, macro-level concern about recession was negatively associated with interest in helping. (cdc.gov)
  • Africa and the global economic crisis: strategies for preserving the foundations of long-term growth. (who.int)
  • We suggest that the key factor behind any emerging slowdown and a possible recession is a sharp decline in the yearly` rate of growth of money supply (AMS) from 67.1% in May 2005 to minus 12.2% by September 2009. (cobdencentre.org)
  • We suggest that the key factor which is likely to push Russia into a recession is not sanctions as such but a sharp decline in the growth momentum of money supply between May 2005 and September 2009. (cobdencentre.org)
  • In economic literature, the overall macroeconomic performance deviation from the long-term growth is called the business cycle. (wikipedia.org)
  • The standard macroeconomic definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. (wikipedia.org)
  • Causes of reduced real growth of the country's economic activities can be generally evaluated in terms of supply-side and demand-side evolutions. (wikipedia.org)
  • Although, in the first half of 2013, Iran's economic growth, with a slight change, recorded a rate of -3.1 percent, negative economic growth figures have been recorded ever since. (wikipedia.org)
  • Experience has shown that the Iran's production and economic growth response to fluctuations in oil revenues is asymmetrical. (wikipedia.org)
  • In other words, reduced oil revenues leave a greater impact on production and economic growth than increased oil revenues. (wikipedia.org)
  • Although exchange rate jumps can - through increasing competitiveness of domestic producers with foreign competitors in both domestic and foreign markets - help to increase production and improve economic growth, they can also introduce severe recessionary effects by sharply increasing production costs. (wikipedia.org)
  • This yield curve is used as a benchmark for other debt in the market, such as mortgage rates or bank lending rates, and it is also used to predict changes in economic output and growth. (theeconomiccollapseblog.com)
  • Despite Recession Talk, Economic Indicators Point To Continued, Moderate Growth. (city-journal.org)
  • Economic indicators point to continued, moderate growth, despite the prognostications of the pundit class. (city-journal.org)
  • The current economic environment-low and declining interest rates, stable prices, modest quarter-to-quarter economic growth, the absence of wars abroad-does not suggest a recession-oriented climate. (city-journal.org)
  • Recessions typically occur in settings of rapid economic growth and rising interest rates, combined with overly bullish forecasts for stocks and business profits. (city-journal.org)
  • A sustained trade and tariff war between the U.S. and China, the world's two largest economies, would surely damage the prospects for continued economic growth, for both countries. (city-journal.org)
  • The objective of this study is to model the start-up and growth of a newly established truck transportation company during the economic recession whose main business is seaport containers and bulk inland transportation. (hindawi.com)
  • Specifically, we used the SCIs to assess whether there is a threshold in the number of states experiencing negative SCI growth that might signal a national recession. (stlouisfed.org)
  • Our analysis showed that, on average, when 26 states had reported negative SCI growth in a particular month, this was viewed as being highly correlated with the start of a national recession. (stlouisfed.org)
  • We wish to point out once more that the fitting equation that we propose works because it respects the auto-catalytic hence exponential nature of (both positive and negative) economic growth. (economics-ejournal.org)
  • His research and analysis shed light on key factors affecting the region's economic growth and stability. (ccul.org)
  • The nonfinancial leverage subindex of the NFCI [ aka AFNAI] best exemplifies how leverage can serve as an early warning signal for financial stress and its potential impact on economic growth. (econintersect.com)
  • We suspect that it is quite likely that the effect from a fall in the growth momentum of money during May 2005 to September 2009 is starting to dominate the present economic scene. (cobdencentre.org)
  • Whilst a tighter interest rate stance can have an effect on the present growth momentum of money supply this is likely to have a minor effect on the emerging economic slowdown, which we suggest is predominately driven by past money supply. (cobdencentre.org)
  • Economic growth will also be limited as being at full employment potential growth is - by definition - curtailed by the lack of supply of labour. (ifamagazine.com)
  • Airin was a residential area during the country's per 100 000, corresponding to an annual reduction of 6% period of economic growth between the 1950s and the from 2013. (who.int)
  • Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told C-SPAN on Tuesday that there is a 1-in-3 chance of a recession this year and ''even odds'' within the next two. (newsmax.com)
  • Although the current recession may be the longest in the postwar period, it is by no means certain that it will be the deepest, but it's increasingly looking that way. (stlouisfed.org)
  • Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months. (economicpopulist.org)
  • On the basis of a thorough analysis of the selected investigations, we conclude that periods of economic recession are possibly associated with a higher prevalence of mental health problems, including common mental disorders, substance disorders, and ultimately suicidal behaviour. (nih.gov)
  • Conclusions are summarised, taking into account international policy recommendations concerning the cost-effective measures that can possibly reduce the occurrence of negative mental health outcomes in populations during periods of economic recession. (nih.gov)
  • Consumer spending , which accounts for more than two-thirds of all economic activity, may be in decline and retailers are bracing for the pullback. (aljazeera.com)
  • The CWI estimates that the percentage of children living in poverty will peak at 21 percent in 2010, a figure comparable to previous economic recessions. (prb.org)
  • The Recession Indicator for Japan in March released by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) fell to 25.8%, from 33.4% on revised retroactivity value in February (Figure 1). (or.jp)
  • The Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG), a measure of past performance, increased 4.1 percent to 115.3. (thebusinesstimes.com)
  • Regarding the standard ideal indicator defined by Shiskin and Moore (1967), the indicator constructed by procyclical factors is preferable over that constructed by the factors from six economic groups since the former is smoother. (nottingham.ac.uk)
  • In forecasting economic recessions in the US, the indicator generated by using broad macro factors is able to provide predictive power. (nottingham.ac.uk)
  • And the message for Britain, which is forecast to face "one of the worst recessions and weakest recoveries in the G7", was even starker. (theweek.com)
  • With the Fed's tightening on monetary policy and the constant threat of a recession looming, policymakers and advisors are closely monitoring economic indicators because the data can ultimately impact business decisions and financial markets. (etftrends.com)
  • And most importantly, what lessons did we learn that policymakers should remember when the next recession hits? (brookings.edu)
  • Independent economists have been less optimistic, noting in particular the inversion of the Treasury yield curve - a pattern that has occurred before every recession since the 1950s. (politico.com)
  • Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion. (economicpopulist.org)
  • This level of the ANFCI indicates that current financial conditions are moderately more lax than would typically be suggested by current economic conditions. (econintersect.com)
  • I study US economic recessions by introducing a cutting-edged technique from the Natural Sciences in order to capture the critical transitions in the macroeconomic system, using hundreds of macroeconomic and financial variables covering the period January 1980 to December 2014. (nottingham.ac.uk)
  • I find that the interactions among macroeconomic and financial variables measured by covariance among these variables can provide one-month ahead prediction for US economic recessions. (nottingham.ac.uk)
  • RESULTS: Tobacco taxation policy had three simi- lar stages in Baltic countries: (1) In 2004-2007, CONCLUSIONS: Decrease of tobacco affordability tax rates increased slowly and cigarettes became caused by tax hikes and economic recession was more affordable in years of economic boom. (who.int)
  • The reality is if a recession goes on 3 years, officially it is a depression. (economicpopulist.org)
  • Earlier today, we were told that Nigeria had officially exited recession. (herald.ng)
  • Recession came due to some mistakes of the past and in just about a year, the government battled it and today we are officially out of recession and we give all glory to God. (herald.ng)
  • At a micro-level, we examined the relationships between work - hour insecurity and perceived job -related COVID-19 risk-two salient COVID-19-related economic and health threats-and helping customers and coworkers. (cdc.gov)
  • Is There Any Way To Avoid Global Recession? (valuewalk.com)
  • Meanwhile, when you look to the west, the USA is still battling new surges in virus outbreaks, while watching the global recession take shape like an oncoming storm. (valuewalk.com)
  • After nearly 11 years of 24/7/365 operation, Global Economic Intersection co-founders Steven Hansen and John Lounsbury are retiring. (econintersect.com)
  • The new owner, a global media company in London, is in the process of completing the set-up of Global Economic Intersection files in their system and publishing platform. (econintersect.com)
  • COVID-19 also has been affecting global economies, leading to several recessions ( 2 ). (cdc.gov)
  • Exploring how race, ethnicity, and class intersect to affect economic outcomes in the United States. (epi.org)
  • The present review examines the recent evidence of the possible association between economic recessions and mental health outcomes. (nih.gov)
  • This paper intends to cover the main sources and types of recent evidence on populations' mental health outcomes in times of economic recession. (biomedcentral.com)
  • Specifically to summarize the mental health outcomes and the socioeconomic determinants most frequently addressed by the literature on economic recessions, which groups of people seem to be the most vulnerable, and to determine possible research needs. (biomedcentral.com)
  • In particular, the best predictive macro indicators are constructed by employing procyclical factors and factors from six economic groups based on results from both in-sample and out-of-sample analysis. (nottingham.ac.uk)
  • I also find that the threshold based on 25% for classifying the recessions can generate better estimation results than using 50%, consistent with prior studies. (nottingham.ac.uk)
  • Private business, which had been in expansion prior to the recession, scales back production and tries to limit exposure to systematic risk. (wikipedia.org)
  • Unless economic numbers quickly improve, the NBER is likely to backdate the start of the recession to June. (blogspot.com)
  • The first one is that our claim about the universality of the shape of recessions may not hold for some types and sub-types of recessions whose mechanism he explains in details. (economics-ejournal.org)
  • The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) , a composite index designed to predict the economy's trajectory, continues to sound alarms about future economic uncertainty. (etftrends.com)
  • The new report surveyed 3,000 consumers in the US and the UK in partnership with Propeller Insights, showing that against this backdrop of economic uncertainty, consumers are reevaluating how new technologies can help them manage their finances and are flocking to embedded finance offerings including Accelerated Wage Access to help them gain access to wages faster. (businesswire.com)
  • With economic uncertainty taking hold, Marqeta's report reveals that consumers are increasingly open to leveraging Generative AI tools to help them with their financial planning, including budgeting, investing and how to increase their savings. (businesswire.com)
  • The implication of these results is to provide a new quantitative approach for central bankers and policy makers to predict economic recessions one month ahead. (nottingham.ac.uk)
  • During this period, women's fertility when economic hardship and unpredictability about the preferences began to change and the national fertility future caused short-term declines in fertility ( 10 ). (who.int)
  • Fortunately I began the process of getting control of my finances 2 years before the current recession kicked in. (gatherlittlebylittle.com)
  • The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is reporting that for the first time in 60 years, "developing Asia" - a bloc of 45 countries is going to experience a recession. (tutor2u.net)
  • The IWPR/Rockefeller survey shows that more than one and a half years after the recession came to an official end, and the recovery supposedly began, many women and men report that they are still suffering significant hardships. (iwpr.org)
  • Not a unanimous outcome, but given that the last few years have not exactly been normal from an economic point of view, let's explore a pessimistic and an optimistic scenario. (ifamagazine.com)
  • To- bacco consumption and smuggling out of Baltic bacco tax hike is a win-win policy, while in years of countries was on the rise, which caused increase economic boom it has more fiscal benefits and in of sales and revenues. (who.int)
  • 2) In 2008-2009, Baltic years of economic recession it has more public countries had to hike excise and VAT rates in years health benefits. (who.int)
  • Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. (economicpopulist.org)
  • But the question is, even then, will it be a strong recovery, or will we enter an economic malaise, not unlike that of Japan? (veteransforcommonsense.org)
  • Cote also discusses the challenges Honeywell faced implementing unpaid work leaves (furloughs) in different parts of the world and how he believes the choices they made during the recession positioned Honeywell to respond to the economic recovery. (hbr.org)
  • It is estimated that labour markets will take time to improve even though there are prospects for economic recovery [ 6 ]. (biomedcentral.com)
  • Under these circumstances, the Thai economic recovery will thus receive less support from exports. (kasikornresearch.com)
  • WHO's undertakings, in one way or another, have led to serious unfair worldwide reaction to Mexico and Mexicans - similar to stigmatization and introducing trade barriers - which are jeopardizing Mexico's economic recovery. (who.int)
  • The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. (economicpopulist.org)
  • We also wish to say that the ongoing worldwide recession shows that our model does not take well into account the very first stages of recessions, as it implicitely assumes that the GDP is a convex function, whereas the GDP of the UK ( http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192 ) is clearly a concave function during the first few quarters. (economics-ejournal.org)
  • On the other hand, some economic variables as leading indicators suggest the creation of a cycle in future before intensification of a business cycle. (wikipedia.org)
  • Britain will narrowly avoid a recession this year - but people and businesses will still feel the pain akin to the 2008 financial crash, according to an influential business network. (yahoo.com)
  • Then I employ a standard logit model to study whether these proposed indicators offer a prediction one-month ahead of US economic recessions from September 1980 to December 2014. (nottingham.ac.uk)
  • Given this compelling evidence, I would argue that a recession is not around the corner. (ifamagazine.com)
  • Those looking for evidence the US is already in recession (and has been since June) need look no further than the August Manufacturing ISM Numbers released today. (blogspot.com)
  • Nevertheless, these projections come from current economic indicators, none of which is signaling a recession in the months ahead. (city-journal.org)
  • Today, the stories of two of our most important indicators, the Consumer Price Index and GDP, and what they can and can't tell us about our current economic predicament. (npr.org)
  • This year, for the first time, the project issued a special focus report that looks at the possible effects of the current economic recession on children through 2010, with a particular emphasis on the effects on young children. (prb.org)
  • WASHINGTON, DCÃ â - The current economic recession has forced many Hispanics age 45+ to cope by making increasingly difficult decisions that may impact their long-term health and financial security, according to a new survey by AARP, in collaboration with the National Hispana Leadership Institute and impreMedia. (blackradionetwork.com)
  • This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on financial conditions relative to current economic conditions. (econintersect.com)
  • Economic stimulus in all countries must be focused on keeping the food supply chains functioning, while also protecting access to locally-, regionally- and globally-produced food. (fao.org)
  • In countries that have been hardest hit by the latest recession, which started in 2007, the living and working conditions have substantially worsened [ 6 ]. (biomedcentral.com)
  • The tourism sector faces a similar dilemma as major tourist markets have to deal with their weakening currencies while some countries are at risk of economic recession. (kasikornresearch.com)
  • Economic stress countries were used. (cdc.gov)
  • In this article, we look at three closely watched indicators from the past week - the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, retail sales, and industrial production. (etftrends.com)
  • Based on the past historical experience-three recessions since 1975-we project that the rate of overweight children will have a bump upwards…due in part to parents substituting lower-price, higher-carb foods for healthy foods," says Land. (prb.org)
  • Are they as reliable as in the past and is recession around the corner? (ifamagazine.com)
  • The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 4.4 percent to 98.8 in April. (thebusinesstimes.com)