###### begingroup

- begingroup$ @AndréNicolas bayes formula is not right? (stackexchange.com)
- begingroup$ Bayes is OK, but in my experience students do better concentrating on the definition of conditional probability. (stackexchange.com)
- begingroup$ explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2059:_Modified_Bayes%27_Theorem the explanation from the author. (stackexchange.com)
- begingroup$ But shouldn't you apply Bayes theorem to P(C) to update its value in face of more evidence? (stackexchange.com)

###### conditional probabilities

- Bayes' theorem (also known as Bayes' rule) is a useful tool for calculating conditional probabilities . (stattrek.com)

###### Rule

- Use the Bayes Rule Calculator to compute conditional probability, when Bayes' theorem can be applied. (stattrek.com)
- Reminds me of something I saw a few years ago: a student came to a meeting with pretty bad translation results when correctly using Bayes' rule. (johndcook.com)
- formulating it in terms of likelihoods and Bayes' rule is really less of a formalism and more of a framework that provides some constraints that are useful for limiting the search space. (johndcook.com)
- Bayes' theorem is a rule in probability and statistical theory that calculates an event's probability based on related conditions or events. (decodedscience.org)
- Here's an explanation of how to use Bayes' Rule in simple situations, and introduce the relationship between Bayesian and frequentist probability. (decodedscience.org)
- The earliest reference I can find in Google books to Bayes' rule (1854) spells it Bayes's . (stackexchange.com)
- Your friends and colleagues are talking about something called "Bayes' Theorem" or "Bayes' Rule", or something called Bayesian reasoning. (commonsenseatheism.com)

###### Bayesian

- In contrast, the Bayesian approach uses Bayes' Theorem to formally combine prior information with current information on a quantity of interest. (thefreelibrary.com)
- Bayesian rationality takes its name from this theorem, as it is regarded as the foundation of consistent rational reasoning under uncertainty. (lesswrong.com)
- You can further extend Naïve Bayes to represent relationships that are more complex than a series of factors that hint at the likelihood of an outcome using a Bayesian network, which consists of graphs showing how events affect each other. (dummies.com)

###### bayes's

- James Rock explains how he's using Bayes's Theorem to fit data to a parametric distribution with Mathematica in this talk from the Wolfram Technology Conference. (wolfram.com)
- I think 'Bayes' Theorem' (but perhaps not Bayes's Theorem ) is catchier than the latter two suggestions. (lesswrong.com)
- If Bayes had discovered it today, we might call it Bayes's theorem, pronounced baizes to rhyme with mazes. (stackexchange.com)
- Note that in the Wikipedia article I linked to they use Bayes's death , but Bayes' theorem . (stackexchange.com)
- For the same Conditional Probability, why does Bayes's Theorem differ from a direct calculation? (stackexchange.com)

###### equation

- A formula is not very intuitive though, so let's just ignore that for now because an equation is not needed for actually understanding Bayes' Theorem. (skepchick.org)

###### algorithm

- In Peter Norvig's talk The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data, starting at 37:42, he describes a translation algorithm based on Bayes' theorem. (johndcook.com)
- The Naïve Bayes algorithm helps you arrange all the evidence you gather and reach a more solid prediction with a higher likelihood of being correct. (dummies.com)
- The Naïve Bayes algorithm is skilled at guessing correctly when multiple causes exist. (dummies.com)
- A Bayes filter is an algorithm used in computer science for calculating the probabilities of multiple beliefs to allow a robot to infer its position and orientation. (davidsherlock.info)

###### explanation

- In his new book, The Signal and the Noise , FiveThirtyEight 's founder Nate Silver gives the single most coherent explanation of Bayes' Theorem out there. (businessinsider.com)

###### posterior probability

- Bayes theorem computes the posterior probability, or the probability that, given you found the underwear, your spouse is cheating. (businessinsider.com)
- 2) While Bayes' theorem describes a way of obtaining the actual posterior probability, maximizing that is only loosely related to any downstream loss function you actually care about, and there are decision-theoretic reasons to add extra parameters (a temperature in this case) to your model to improve a downstream loss. (johndcook.com)

###### correctly

- No, the goal of the tutorial below is to give you a true understanding of Bayes' Theorem so that can apply it correctly in the complexities of real life that exist beyond the exam sheet. (commonsenseatheism.com)

###### evidence

- This is one of the things I really like about Bayes - it expressly considers the probability that a claim is true given everything we know about the universe, and then puts new evidence into the context of that prior probability. (theness.com)
- Bayes' theorem can help you deduce how likely something is to happen in a certain context, based on the general probabilities of the fact itself and the evidence you examine, and combined with the probability of the evidence given the fact. (dummies.com)
- A Naïve Bayes model can retrace evidence to the right outcome. (dummies.com)
- Bayes' theorem is a tool for assessing how probable evidence makes some hypothesis. (universitypressscholarship.com)
- Using Bayes' Theorem we can calculate the probability that the students in Bem's study are really psychic or just got lucky in their guesses, while considering prior evidence as well as the new evidence. (skepchick.org)

###### calculation

- You see, Bayes' Theorem is a way of considering our prior knowledge in our calculation of probability. (skepchick.org)

###### 1763

- The book ends with the original paper containing the theorem, presented to the Royal Society in 1763. (universitypressscholarship.com)

###### involves

- Part of the challenge in applying Bayes' theorem involves recognizing the types of problems that warrant its use. (stattrek.com)

###### statistics

- This month, Revolution Analytics' partner IBM Netezza commemorates Bayes' contributions to Statistics with a series of videos on Bayes Theorem, its applications, and the implications for Big Data and predictive analytics. (r-bloggers.com)

###### Lesson

- The remainder of this lesson covers material that can help you understand when and how to apply Bayes' theorem effectively. (stattrek.com)
- In Lesson 2, we review the rules of conditional probability and introduce Bayes' theorem. (coursera.org)

###### calculate

- That is exactly what Bayes seeks to calculate. (theness.com)
- It would be cool if you found a way to work in the existence of Cox's theorem -- when I encountered it, I had never thought about why the laws of probability were given as they are, or if there could be a different consistent way to represent and calculate probability besides multiplying numbers together. (lesswrong.com)

###### Filters

- Thinking about recursion and self-organisation has led me down the scary road of Bayes Filters and Theorem. (davidsherlock.info)

###### understood

- Bayes' theorem can be best understood through an example. (stattrek.com)
- Power point presentation, 15 slides explaining the Bayes' theorem in a way that can be understood by the students, using examples to make it more clear. (payhip.com)

###### factor

- So we experimented some, and we found out that when you raise that first factor [in Bayes' theorem] to the 1.5 power, you get a better result. (johndcook.com)
- Why Normalizing Factor is Required in Bayes Theorem? (stackexchange.com)

###### apply

- We then give the definitions of probability and the laws governing it and apply Bayes theorem. (coursera.org)
- We define and apply the central limit theorem to sampling problems and brieflyt- and c2. (coursera.org)

###### simple

- Later on, it turned out to have been a simple mistake -- the test was a false positive, and the 999 out of 1,000 figure had been based on a lack of understanding about Bayes' Theorem. (lesswrong.com)
- I was panicy over Bayes Theorem but it turns out, its pretty simple. (davidsherlock.info)

###### find

- No, for the same reason we aren't surprised when we find that logistic regression outperforms naive Bayes. (johndcook.com)

###### shows

- Bayes also shows mathematically why confirmatory tests are so powerful. (theness.com)
- Luckily Bayes' theorem shows us how to take it in into account. (maths.org)
- The following example shows how things work in a Naïve Bayes classification. (dummies.com)

###### Question

- Browse other questions tagged probability bayes-theorem or ask your own question . (stackexchange.com)

###### application

- The assumption of equivalent confidence is necessary to justify application of Bayes' theorem to any finite sample. (johndcook.com)

###### problem

- So, this is a problem that we'll utilize Bayes Theorem that we've already given. (coursera.org)

###### goes

- The book goes back to Bayes' theorem constantly, and for excellent reasons - it's an exceptionally powerful way to honestly gauge a complex reality based on estimable probabilities, and is perhaps the most important theory in modern probability. (businessinsider.com)

###### basic

- That is really the basic concept of Bayes Theorem. (theness.com)

###### below

- The answer can be determined from Bayes' theorem, as shown below. (stattrek.com)
- If you gave up on Yudkowsky's introduction to Bayes' Theorem, I hope you'll try mine, below. (commonsenseatheism.com)

###### look

- the next topic I want to look at is Bayes Theorem. (coursera.org)
- You will never be able to fit all of the applications of Bayes Theorem in one hour so pick one or two and make it look awesome. (lesswrong.com)

###### consider

- You should consider Bayes' theorem when the following conditions exist. (stattrek.com)
- The papers in this book consider the worth and applicability of the theorem. (universitypressscholarship.com)

###### things

- At the moment, I'm thinking about how to design the class, so I'd appreciate any suggestions as to what content I should cover, the best format, clear ways to explain it, cool things related to Bayes' Theorem, good links, and so forth. (lesswrong.com)

###### However

- However, it seems that when it became widely discussed in the early 1900s with increased investigation of probability, it was generally referred to as Bayes' . (stackexchange.com)

###### understand

- Maybe you see the theorem, and you understand the theorem, and you can use the theorem, but you can't understand why your friends and/or research colleagues seem to think it's the secret of the universe. (commonsenseatheism.com)

###### actually

- XKCD's modified Bayes theorem: actually kinda reasonable? (stackexchange.com)

###### think

- After giving it some thought, I think maybe the second piece of information I would pass to a new society is Bayes' Theorem. (commonsenseatheism.com)

###### World

- Unless you are a world-class statiscian, Bayes' theorem (as expressed above) can be intimidating. (stattrek.com)
- Seeing the world through the lens of Bayes' Theorem is like seeing The Matrix. (commonsenseatheism.com)

###### call

- If you want people to sign up for your class, don't call it Bayes Theorem, or anything equally boring (not many people can even pronounce 'representativeness heuristic' on the first try). (lesswrong.com)
- different people still treat the pronunciation of possessives like Jones'(s) differently today), so we call it Bayes' theorem, pronounced bays to rhyme with maze . (stackexchange.com)

###### applications

- Because since then, Bayes Theorem has been the underpinning of predictive analytics applications from spam detection to medical alerts. (r-bloggers.com)

###### Introduction

- So, I decided to write an even gentler introduction to Bayes' Theorem. (commonsenseatheism.com)

###### friends

- Maybe your friends are all wearing Bayes' Theorem T-shirts, and you're feeling left out. (commonsenseatheism.com)

###### cool

- What matters is that Bayes is cool, and if you don't know Bayes, you aren't cool. (commonsenseatheism.com)