Uncertainty
The condition in which reasonable knowledge regarding risks, benefits, or the future is not available.
Bayes Theorem
A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result.
Models, Statistical
Clinical Chemistry Tests
Models, Theoretical
Monte Carlo Method
In statistics, a technique for numerically approximating the solution of a mathematical problem by studying the distribution of some random variable, often generated by a computer. The name alludes to the randomness characteristic of the games of chance played at the gambling casinos in Monte Carlo. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, 1993)
Decision Theory
A theoretical technique utilizing a group of related constructs to describe or prescribe how individuals or groups of people choose a course of action when faced with several alternatives and a variable amount of knowledge about the determinants of the outcomes of those alternatives.
Decision Making
Algorithms
Computer Simulation
Cost-Benefit Analysis
A method of comparing the cost of a program with its expected benefits in dollars (or other currency). The benefit-to-cost ratio is a measure of total return expected per unit of money spent. This analysis generally excludes consideration of factors that are not measured ultimately in economic terms. Cost effectiveness compares alternative ways to achieve a specific set of results.
Radiometry
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
Models, Biological
Reproducibility of Results
The statistical reproducibility of measurements (often in a clinical context), including the testing of instrumentation or techniques to obtain reproducible results. The concept includes reproducibility of physiological measurements, which may be used to develop rules to assess probability or prognosis, or response to a stimulus; reproducibility of occurrence of a condition; and reproducibility of experimental results.
Markov Chains
A stochastic process such that the conditional probability distribution for a state at any future instant, given the present state, is unaffected by any additional knowledge of the past history of the system.
Radiotherapy Planning, Computer-Assisted
Calibration
Models, Economic
Risk Assessment
Climate Change
Any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer). It may result from natural factors such as changes in the sun's intensity, natural processes within the climate system such as changes in ocean circulation, or human activities.
Data Interpretation, Statistical
Conservation of Natural Resources
Decision Support Techniques
Likelihood Functions
Functions constructed from a statistical model and a set of observed data which give the probability of that data for various values of the unknown model parameters. Those parameter values that maximize the probability are the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters.
Baltic States
Environmental Monitoring
Great Britain
Signal Detection, Psychological
Sensitivity and Specificity
Binary classification measures to assess test results. Sensitivity or recall rate is the proportion of true positives. Specificity is the probability of correctly determining the absence of a condition. (From Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 2d ed)
Radiotherapy Setup Errors
Stochastic Processes
Fuzzy Logic
Approximate, quantitative reasoning that is concerned with the linguistic ambiguity which exists in natural or synthetic language. At its core are variables such as good, bad, and young as well as modifiers such as more, less, and very. These ordinary terms represent fuzzy sets in a particular problem. Fuzzy logic plays a key role in many medical expert systems.
Forecasting
Reference Standards
Body Burden
Climate
Ecosystem
Atmosphere
Four-Dimensional Computed Tomography
Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
Bias (Epidemiology)
Any deviation of results or inferences from the truth, or processes leading to such deviation. Bias can result from several sources: one-sided or systematic variations in measurement from the true value (systematic error); flaws in study design; deviation of inferences, interpretations, or analyses based on flawed data or data collection; etc. There is no sense of prejudice or subjectivity implied in the assessment of bias under these conditions.