Sensitivity analysis for trend tests: application to the risk of radiation exposure. (25/128)

Trend tests are used to assess the relationship between multiple level treatment X and binary response R. In observational studies, however, there may be a confounder U that is associated with treatment X and causally related to response R. When the data for the confounder U are not observed, an approach for assessing the sensitivity of test results to U is provided. Its use is illustrated by examining data from a study of mutation rate after the Chernobyl accident.  (+info)

Trends in childhood leukaemia in the Nordic countries in relation to fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing. (26/128)

OBJECTIVE: To obtain further information about the risks of childhood leukaemia after exposure to ionising radiation at low doses and low dose rates before or after birth or to the father's testes shortly before conception. DESIGN: Observational study of trends in incidence of childhood leukaemia in relation to estimated radiation exposures due to fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing during the 1950s and 1960s. SETTING: Nordic countries. SUBJECTS: Children aged under 15 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence rates of leukaemia by age at diagnosis, sex, country, and calendar year of diagnosis or year of birth; exposure category; relation between leukaemia and exposure for children aged 0-14 and 0-4 separately. RESULTS: During the high fallout period the average estimated dose equivalent to the fetal red bone marrow was around 140 mu Sv and the average annual testicular dose 140 mu Sv. There was little evidence of increased incidence of leukaemia among children born in these years. Doses to the red bone marrow of a child after birth were higher, and during the high exposure period children would have been subjected to an additional dose equivalent of around 1500 mu Sv, similar to doses received by children in several parts of central and eastern Europe owing to the Chernobyl accident and about 50% greater than the annual dose equivalent to the red bone marrow of a child from natural radiation. leukaemia incidence and red marrow dose was not related overall, but rates of leukaemia in the high exposure period were slightly higher than in the surrounding medium exposure period (relative risk for ages 0-14: 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.14; for ages 0-4: 1.11, 1.00 to 1.24). CONCLUSIONS: Current predicted risks of childhood leukaemia after exposure to radiation are not greatly underestimated for low dose rate exposures.  (+info)

Width and center-axis location of the radioactive plume that passed over Dolon and nearby villages on the occasion of the first USSR A-bomb test in 1949. (27/128)

In relation to the efforts to reconstruct the radiation dose in Dolon village, which was affected by the first USSR atomic bomb test in 1949 at the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, the width and the center-axis location of the radioactive plume were investigated based on the soil contamination data around Dolon and the nearby villages. Assuming that the radioactive plume passed over along a straight line from the ground zero point to this area, the spatial distributions of soil contamination were plotted as a function of the perpendicular distance from the supposed center-axis of the plume. In total 83 and 52 soil contamination data were available for 137Cs and 239,240Pu, respectively. The plotted distribution formed a peak-like shape both for 137Cs and 239,240Pu. A Gaussian function drawn so as to envelop the points plotted for 239,240Pu indicated that the central part of the radioactive plume passed over the residential area of Dolon with a sigma value of 1.5 km. Additional soil contamination data around Dolon and other villages are necessary for more detailed discussion.  (+info)

Around Semipalatinsk nuclear test site: progress of dose estimations relevant to the consequences of nuclear tests (a summary of 3rd Dosimetry Workshop on the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site area, RIRBM, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, 9-11 of March, 2005). (28/128)

The paper is an analytical overview of the main results presented at the 3rd Dosimetry Workshop in Hiroshima(9-11 of March 2005), where different aspects of the dose reconstruction around the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site(SNTS) were discussed and summarized. The results of the international intercomparison of the retrospective luminescence dosimetry(RLD) method for Dolon' village(Kazakhstan) were presented at the Workshop and good concurrence between dose estimations by different laboratories from 6 countries (Japan, Russia, USA, Germany, Finland and UK) was pointed out. The accumulated dose values in brick for a common depth of 10mm depth obtained independently by all participating laboratories were in good agreement for all four brick samples from Dolon' village, Kazakhstan, with the average value of the local gamma dose due to fallout (near the sampling locations) being about 220 mGy(background dose has been subtracted).Furthermore, using a conversion factor of about 2 to obtain the free-in-air dose, a value of local dose approximately 440 mGy is obtained, which supports the results of external dose calculations for Dolon': recently published soil contamination data, archive information and new models were used for refining dose calculations and the external dose in air for Dolon village was estimated to be about 500 mGy. The results of electron spin resonance(ESR) dosimetry with tooth enamel have demonstrated the notable progress in application of ESR dosimetry to the problems of dose reconstruction around the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site. At the present moment, dose estimates by the ESR method have become more consistent with calculated values and with retrospective luminescence dosimetry data, but differences between ESR dose estimates and RLD/calculation data were noted. For example mean ESR dose for eligible tooth samples from Dolon' village was estimated to be about 140 mGy(above background dose), which is less than dose values obtained by RLD and calculations. A possible explanation of the differences between ESR and RLD/calculations doses is the following: for interpretation of ESR data the "shielding and behaviour" factors for investigated persons should be taken into account. The "upper level" of the combination of "shielding and behaviour" factors of dose reduction for inhabitants of Dolon' village of about 0.28 was obtained by comparing the individual ESR tooth enamel dose estimates with the calculated mean dose for this settlement. The biological dosimetry data related to the settlements near SNTS were presented at the Workshop. A higher incidence of unstable chromosome aberrations, micronucleus in lymphocytes, nuclear abnormalities of thyroid follicular cells, T-cell receptor mutations in peripheral blood were found for exposed areas (Dolon', Sarjal) in comparison with unexposed ones(Kokpekty). The significant greater frequency of stable translocations (results of analyses of chromosome aberrations in lymphocytes by the FISH technique) was demonstrated for Dolon' village in comparison with Chekoman(unexposed village). The elevated level of stable translocations in Dolon' corresponds to a dose of about 180 mSv, which is close to the results of ESR dosimetry for this village. The importance of investigating specific morphological types of thyroid nodules for thyroid dosimetry studies was pointed out. In general the 3rd Dosimetry Workshop has demonstrated remarkable progress in developing an international level of common approaches for retrospective dose estimations around the SNTS and in understanding the tasks for the future joint work in this direction. In the framework of a special session the problems of developing a database and registry in order to support epidemiological studies around SNTS were discussed. The results of investigation of psychological consequences of nuclear tests, which are expressed in the form of verbal behaviour, were presented at this session as well.  (+info)

Radiological situation in the vicinity of Semipalatinsk nuclear test site: Dolon, Mostik, Cheremushka and Budene settlements. (29/128)

The present situation of radioactive contamination at the village of Dolon and nearby villages such as Mostik, Cheremushka and Budene was investigated to serve as an aid to resolve dose discrepancy between model calculations and TL measurements made for external gamma-ray dose in air in Dolon. The paper was focused on the reevaluation of the accumulated levels and distribution of long-lived radionuclides 137Cs and Pu isotopes in soil using long core samples up to a depth of 30 and 100 cm. The inventories of 137Cs and 239,240Pu found were in the wide range of 140-10,310 and 140-14,320 Bq/m2, respectively. Most of the Pu in soil was tightly incorporated into various sizes of fused particles. Both 137Cs and 239,240Pu in soil were accumulated in the smaller soil size fraction of <125 microm, and the presence of hot particles, probably due to Pu, was clearly observed by star-like patterns from alpha-tracks. The obtained data will be helpful for evaluating the current and future radiation risks to the people living around there.  (+info)

90Sr concentration in cow teeth from South Ural region, Russia, using Monte Carlo simulation. (30/128)

The Imaging Plate (IP) technique which uses the Monte Carlo code, MCNP, to convert IP response to 90Sr concentration with varied thickness of the standard source has been proposed in this study. In order to verify the validity of simulation calculation in the proposed method, the radial distribution of IP signal has been compared between calculation and experiment. The result is, they are in good agreement. The proposed method has been applied to a cow tooth from the territory contaminated by radioactivity after the accident in the Mayak facility in the South Ural, Russia. Two samples have been prepared from the tooth, i.e., a thin sample of 1.2+/-0.2 mm in thickness and a thick sample which is a half of the tooth. The IP response has been evaluated for the thick sample using experimentally made standard sources, and multiplied by a modification factor to decide that for the thin sample. The modification factor has been determined with MCNP to be 0.83+/-0.08 for a thickness of 1.2+/-0.2 mm. Using these values, 90Sr concentration has been estimated to be 0.11 Bq/g for the thin sample and 0.12 Bq/g for the thick sample, hence they are in good agreement.  (+info)

External radiation in Dolon village due to local fallout from the first USSR atomic bomb test in 1949. (31/128)

Dolon village, located about 60 km from the border of the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site, is known to be heavily contaminated by local fallout from the first USSR atomic bomb test in 1949. External radiation in Dolon was evaluated based on recent 137Cs data in soil and calculation of temporal change in the fission product composition. After fitting a log-normal distribution to the soil data, a 137Cs deposition of 32 kBq m-2, which corresponds to the 90th-percentile of the distribution, was tentatively chosen as a value to evaluate the radiation situation in 1949. Our calculation indicated that more than 95% of the cumulative dose for 50 y had been delivered within 1 y after the deposition. The resulting cumulative dose for 1 y after the deposition, normalized to the initial contamination containing 1 kBq m-2 of 137Cs, was 15.6 mGy, assuming a fallout arrival time of 3 h and a medium level of fractionation. Finally, 0.50 Gy of absorbed dose in air was derived as our tentative estimate for 1-year cumulative external dose in Dolon due to local fallout from the first USSR test in 1949.  (+info)

Retrospective dose assessment for the population living in areas of local fallout from the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site Part I: External exposure. (32/128)

A short analysis of all 111 atmospheric events conducted at the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) in 1949-1962 with regard to significant off-site exposure (more than 5 mSv of the effective dose during the first year after the explosion) has been made. The analytical method used to assess external exposure to the residents living in settlements near the STS is described. This method makes use of the archival data on the radiological conditions, including the measurements of exposure rate. Special attention was given to the residents of Dolon and Kanonerka villages exposed mainly as a result of the first test, detonated on August 29, 1949. For the residents of those settlements born in 1935, the dose estimates calculated according to the analytical method, are compared to those derived from the thermoluminescence measurements in bricks and electron paramagnetic resonance measurements in teeth. The methods described in this paper were used for external dose assessment for the cohort members at an initial stage of an ongoing epidemiological study conducted by the U.S. National Cancer Institute in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Recently revised methods and estimates of external exposure for that cohort are given in another paper (Simon et al.) in this conference.  (+info)