Scaling in the growth of geographically subdivided populations: invariant patterns from a continent-wide biological survey. (49/431)

We consider statistical patterns of variation in growth rates for over 400 species of breeding birds across North America surveyed from 1966 to 1998. We report two results. First, the standard deviation of population growth rates decays as a power-law function of total population size with an exponent beta = 0.36 +/- 0.02. Second, the number of subpopulations, measured as the number of survey locations with non-zero counts, scales to the 3/4 power of total number of birds counted in a given species. We show how these patterns may be related, and discuss a simple stochastic growth model for a geographically subdivided population that formalizes the relationship. We also examine reasons that may explain why some species deviate from these scaling laws.  (+info)

Hybrid Tamarix widespread in U.S. invasion and undetected in native Asian range. (50/431)

Biological invasions are drastically altering natural habitats and threatening biodiversity on both local and global levels. In one of the United States' worst invasions, Eurasian Tamarix plant species have spread rapidly to dominate over 600,000 riparian and wetland hectares. The largest Tamarix invasion consists of Tamarix chinensis and Tamarix ramosissima, two morphologically similar species. To clarify the identity, origins, and population structuring of this invasion, we analyzed DNA sequence data from an intron of a nuclear gene, phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase (PepC). This intron proved to be highly variable at the population level, and the 269 native and invasive specimens yielded 58 haplotypes, from which we constructed a gene genealogy. Only four of these haplotypes were common to both the U.S. and Eurasia. Surprisingly, we found that the most common plant in this U.S. invasion is a hybrid combination of two species-specific genotypes that were geographically isolated in their native Eurasian range. Less extensive hybrids exist in the invasion, involving combinations of T. ramosissima and T. chinensis with Tamarix parviflora and Tamarix gallica. The presence of potentially novel hybrids in the U.S. illustrates how importation of exotics can alter population structures of species and contribute to invasions.  (+info)

Bet-hedging applications for conservation. (51/431)

One of the early tenets of conservation biology is that population viability is enhanced by maintaining multiple populations of a species. The strength of this tenet is justified by principles of bet-hedging. Management strategies that reduce variance in population size will also reduce risk of extinction. Asynchrony in population fluctuations in independent populations reduces variance in the aggregate of populations whereas environmental correlation among areas increases the risk that all populations will go extinct. We review the theoretical rationale of bet-hedging and suggest applications for conservation management of least terns in Nebraska and grizzly bears in the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. The risk of extinction for least terns will be reduced if we can sustain the small central Platte River population in addition to the larger population on the lower Platte. Similarly, by restoring grizzly bears to the Bitterroot wilderness of Idaho and Montana can reduce the probability of extinction for grizzly bears in the Rocky Mountains of the United States by as much as 69-93%.  (+info)

Hormonal contraception: what is new? (52/431)

Hormonal contraception has become more effective and more widely used, while the world population has grown from 3000 million in 1960 to 6000 million in 2000. There is a need for improved contraception, because legal abortion is used in a high proportion of pregnancies and illegal abortion continues to be common in some countries. Hormonal contraception now includes different choices of administration and dose regimens. The best selection depends on the benefits and risks of the method and whether there is a medical disability. Medical eligibility for combined oral contraceptives has improved during the past 40 years so that, for most women, all currently available low-dose products are safe. For women with medical conditions, wider eligibility for oral contraceptive use has evolved from better knowledge of the risk factors. The long-term risks of rare cardiovascular and malignant adverse events remain controversial. There are long-term benefits, however, as oral contraceptive use appears to protect against endometrial, ovarian and colorectal cancers. Emergency contraception provides an option that reduces the number of unplanned pregnancies with little or no long-term risk. Endometrial contraception is an option that would ideally have no influence on ovarian function or the bleeding pattern, and cause no significant side-effects. Hormonal male contraception, with indirect suppression of spermatogenesis by decreasing gonadotrophin output, is a further choice. Although hormonal contraception is effective and safe, many research investigations remain to be carried out in order to improve tolerance and achieve wider utilization.  (+info)

Population growth rate and its determinants: an overview. (53/431)

We argue that population growth rate is the key unifying variable linking the various facets of population ecology. The importance of population growth rate lies partly in its central role in forecasting future population trends; indeed if the form of density dependence were constant and known, then the future population dynamics could to some degree be predicted. We argue that population growth rate is also central to our understanding of environmental stress: environmental stressors should be defined as factors which when first applied to a population reduce population growth rate. The joint action of such stressors determines an organism's ecological niche, which should be defined as the set of environmental conditions where population growth rate is greater than zero (where population growth rate = r = log(e)(N(t+1)/N(t))). While environmental stressors have negative effects on population growth rate, the same is true of population density, the case of negative linear effects corresponding to the well-known logistic equation. Following Sinclair, we recognize population regulation as occurring when population growth rate is negatively density dependent. Surprisingly, given its fundamental importance in population ecology, only 25 studies were discovered in the literature in which population growth rate has been plotted against population density. In 12 of these the effects of density were linear; in all but two of the remainder the relationship was concave viewed from above. Alternative approaches to establishing the determinants of population growth rate are reviewed, paying special attention to the demographic and mechanistic approaches. The effects of population density on population growth rate may act through their effects on food availability and associated effects on somatic growth, fecundity and survival, according to a 'numerical response', the evidence for which is briefly reviewed. Alternatively, there may be effects on population growth rate of population density in addition to those that arise through the partitioning of food between competitors; this is 'interference competition'. The distinction is illustrated using a replicated laboratory experiment on a marine copepod, Tisbe battagliae. Application of these approaches in conservation biology, ecotoxicology and human demography is briefly considered. We conclude that population regulation, density dependence, resource and interference competition, the effects of environmental stress and the form of the ecological niche, are all best defined and analysed in terms of population growth rate.  (+info)

Demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent determinants of population growth rate: a case study in an avian predator. (54/431)

Identifying the determinants of population growth rate is a central topic in population ecology. Three approaches (demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent) used historically to describe the determinants of population growth rate are here compared and combined for an avian predator, the barn owl (Tyto alba). The owl population remained approximately stable (r approximately 0) throughout the period from 1979 to 1991. There was no evidence of density dependence as assessed by goodness of fit to logistic population growth. The finite (lambda) and instantaneous (r) population growth rates were significantly positively related to food (field vole) availability. The demographic rates, annual adult mortality, juvenile mortality and annual fecundity were reported to be correlated with vole abundance. The best fit (R(2) = 0.82) numerical response of the owl population described a positive effect of food (field voles) and a negative additive effect of owl abundance on r. The numerical response of the barn owl population to food availability was estimated from both census and demographic data, with very similar results. Our analysis shows how the demographic and mechanistic determinants of population growth rate are linked; food availability determines demographic rates, and demographic rates determine population growth rate. The effects of food availability on population growth rate are modified by predator abundance.  (+info)

Pattern of variation in avian population growth rates. (55/431)

A central question in population ecology is to understand why population growth rates differ over time. Here, we describe how the long-term growth of populations is not only influenced by parameters affecting the expected dynamics, for example form of density dependence and specific population growth rate, but is also affected by environmental and demographic stochasticity. Using long-term studies of fluctuations of bird populations, we show an interaction between the stochastic and the deterministic components of the population dynamics: high specific growth rates at small densities r(1) are typically positively correlated with the environmental variance sigma(e)(2). Furthermore, theta, a single parameter describing the form of the density regulation in the theta-logistic density-regulation model, is negatively correlated with r(1). These patterns are in turn correlated with interspecific differences in life-history characteristics. Higher specific growth rates, larger stochastic effects on the population dynamics and stronger density regulation at small densities are found in species with large clutch sizes or high adult mortality rates than in long-lived species. Unfortunately, large uncertainties in parameter estimates, as well as strong stochastic effects on the population dynamics, will often make even short-term population projections unreliable. We illustrate that the concept of population prediction interval can be useful in evaluating the consequences of these uncertainties in the population projections for the choice of management actions.  (+info)

Determinants of human population growth. (56/431)

The 20th century has seen unprecedented growth of the human population on this planet. While at the beginning of the century the Earth had an estimated 1.6 billion inhabitants, this number grew to 6.1 billion by the end of the century, and further significant growth is a near certainty. This paper tries to summarize what factors lie behind this extraordinary expansion of the human population and what population growth we can expect for the future. It discusses the concept of demographic transition and the preconditions for a lasting secular fertility decline. Recent fertility declines in all parts of the world now make it likely that human population growth will come to an end over the course of this century, but in parts of the developing world significant population growth is still to be expected over the coming decades. The slowing of population growth through declining birth rates, together with still increasing life expectancy, will result in a strong ageing of population age structure. Finally, this paper presents a global level systematic analysis of the relationship between population density on the one hand, and growth and fertility rates on the other. This analysis indicates that in addition to the well-studied social and economic determinants, population density also presents a significant factor for the levels and trends of human birth rates.  (+info)