Mortality, recruitment and change of desert tree populations in a hyper-arid environment.
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BACKGROUND: Long-term vegetation changes in hyper-arid areas have long been neglected. Mortality, recruitment and change in populations of the ecologically and culturally important and drought persistent Acacia tortilis and Balanites aegyptiaca are therefore estimated in the Eastern Desert of Egypt, and are related to the primary agents of change, water conditions and human intervention. METHODOLOGY: A change analysis using high-resolution Corona images (1965) in combination with field data (2003) is the basis for recruitment, mortality and change estimates. For assessing the influence of water conditions on patterns in recruitment and survival, different types of generalized linear models are tested. CONCLUSIONS: The overall trend in population size in that part of the Eastern Desert studied here is negative. At some sites this negative trend is alarming, because the reduction in mature trees is substantial (>50%) at the same time as recruitment is nearly absent. At a few sites there is a positive trend and better recruitment. Frequent observations of sprouting in saplings indicate that this is an important mechanism to increase their persistence. It is the establishment itself that seems to be the main challenge in the recruitment process. There are indications that hydrological variables and surface water in particular can explain some of the observed pattern in mortality, but our results indicate that direct human intervention, i.e., charcoal production, is the main cause of tree mortality in the Eastern Desert. (+info)
Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities.
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Humanity has just crossed a major landmark in its history with the majority of people now living in cities. Cities have long been known to be society's predominant engine of innovation and wealth creation, yet they are also its main source of crime, pollution, and disease. The inexorable trend toward urbanization worldwide presents an urgent challenge for developing a predictive, quantitative theory of urban organization and sustainable development. Here we present empirical evidence indicating that the processes relating urbanization to economic development and knowledge creation are very general, being shared by all cities belonging to the same urban system and sustained across different nations and times. Many diverse properties of cities from patent production and personal income to electrical cable length are shown to be power law functions of population size with scaling exponents, beta, that fall into distinct universality classes. Quantities reflecting wealth creation and innovation have beta approximately 1.2 >1 (increasing returns), whereas those accounting for infrastructure display beta approximately 0.8 <1 (economies of scale). We predict that the pace of social life in the city increases with population size, in quantitative agreement with data, and we discuss how cities are similar to, and differ from, biological organisms, for which beta<1. Finally, we explore possible consequences of these scaling relations by deriving growth equations, which quantify the dramatic difference between growth fueled by innovation versus that driven by economies of scale. This difference suggests that, as population grows, major innovation cycles must be generated at a continually accelerating rate to sustain growth and avoid stagnation or collapse. (+info)
Hunting to extinction: biology and regional economy influence extinction risk and the impact of hunting in artiodactyls.
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Half of all artiodactyls (even-toed hoofed mammals) are threatened with extinction, around double the mammalian average. Here, using a complete species-level phylogeny, we construct a multivariate model to assess for the first time which intrinsic (biological) and extrinsic (anthropogenic and environmental) factors influence variation in extinction risk in artiodactyls. Globally artiodactyls at greatest risk live in economically less developed areas, have older weaning ages and smaller geographical ranges. Our findings suggest that identifying predictors of threat is complicated by interactions between both biological and anthropogenic factors, resulting in differential responses to threatening processes. Artiodactyl species that experience unregulated hunting live in significantly less economically developed areas than those that are not hunted; however, hunted species are more susceptible to extinction if they have slower reproductive rates (older weaning ages). In contrast, risk in non-hunted artiodactyls is unrelated to reproductive rate and more closely associated with the economic development of the region in which they live. (+info)
Global change tipping points: above- and below-ground biotic interactions in a low diversity ecosystem.
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Low diversity ecosystems are expected to be more vulnerable to global changes although they have received less attention than high diversity ecosystems. Addressing the present state of the Antarctic Dry Valley region by focusing on the potential global changes that may alter the coupling of above- and below-ground species and ecosystem processes is a realistic and critical need that has value beyond the Antarctic community. Presented here are suggested implications of global change on the Dry Valley terrestrial systems and how these effects might be manifested in the future. (+info)
Quantifying and mapping the human appropriation of net primary production in earth's terrestrial ecosystems.
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Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP), the aggregate impact of land use on biomass available each year in ecosystems, is a prominent measure of the human domination of the biosphere. We present a comprehensive assessment of global HANPP based on vegetation modeling, agricultural and forestry statistics, and geographical information systems data on land use, land cover, and soil degradation that localizes human impact on ecosystems. We found an aggregate global HANPP value of 15.6 Pg C/yr or 23.8% of potential net primary productivity, of which 53% was contributed by harvest, 40% by land-use-induced productivity changes, and 7% by human-induced fires. This is a remarkable impact on the biosphere caused by just one species. We present maps quantifying human-induced changes in trophic energy flows in ecosystems that illustrate spatial patterns in the human domination of ecosystems, thus emphasizing land use as a pervasive factor of global importance. Land use transforms earth's terrestrial surface, resulting in changes in biogeochemical cycles and in the ability of ecosystems to deliver services critical to human well being. The results suggest that large-scale schemes to substitute biomass for fossil fuels should be viewed cautiously because massive additional pressures on ecosystems might result from increased biomass harvest. (+info)
Serendipitous backyard hybridization and the origin of crops.
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Backyard gardens, dump heaps, and kitchen middens are thought to have provided important venues for early crop domestication via generation of hybrids between otherwise isolated plant species. However, this process has rarely been demonstrated empirically. For the majority of polyploid crops, it remains uncertain to what extent hybridization and polyploidization preceded domestication or were precipitated by human activities. Using archaeological, ethnobotanical, geographical, and genetic data, we investigate the extent and significance of predomestication cultivation, backyard sympatry, and spontaneous hybridization for the Mimosoid legume tree Leucaena, which is used as a food crop throughout south-central Mexico. We show that predomestication cultivation was widespread, involved numerous independent transitions from the wild to cultivation, and resulted in extensive artificial sympatry of 2-6 species locally and 13 species in total. Using chloroplast and rapidly evolving nuclear-encoded DNA sequences, we demonstrate that hybridization in Leucaena has been extensive and complex, spawning a diverse set of novel hybrids as a result of juxtaposition of species in cultivation. The scale and complexity of hybridization in Leucaena is significantly greater than that documented for any other Mexican plant domesticates so far. However, there are striking parallels between Leucaena and the other major Mexican perennial domesticates Agave and Opuntia, which show very similar domestication via backyard hybridization pathways. Our results suggest that backyard hybridization has played a central role in Mesoamerican crop domestication and demonstrate that the simple step of bringing species together in cultivation can provide a potent trigger for domestication. (+info)
Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content.
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Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/m(2) per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone. In a formal detection and attribution analysis using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated "fingerprint" pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor is identifiable with high statistical confidence in the SSM/I data. Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually suggest that this fingerprint "match" is primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earth's atmosphere. (+info)
Potentials and limitations for human control over historic fire regimes in the boreal forest.
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Fire, being both a natural and cultural phenomenon, presents problems in disentangling the historical effect of humans from that of climate change. Here, we investigate the potential impact of humans on boreal fire regimes from a perspective of fuels, ignitions and culture. Two ways for a low technology culture to impact the fire regime are as follows: (i) by altering the number of ignitions and their spatial distribution and timing and (ii) by hindering fire spread. Different cultures should be expected to have quite different impacts on the fire regimes. In northern Fennoscandia, there is evidence for fire regime changes associated with the following: a reindeer herding culture associated with few ignitions above the natural; an era of cattle husbandry with dramatically increased ignitions and somewhat higher fire frequency; and a timber exploitation era with decreasing fire sizes and diminishing fire frequency. In other regions of the boreal zone, such schemes can look quite different, but we suggest that a close look at the resource extraction and land use of different cultures should be part of any analysis of past fire regimes. (+info)