Fragmentation and flow regulation of the world's large river systems.
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A global overview of dam-based impacts on large river systems shows that over half (172 out of 292) are affected by dams, including the eight most biogeographically diverse. Dam-impacted catchments experience higher irrigation pressure and about 25 times more economic activity per unit of water than do unaffected catchments. In view of projected changes in climate and water resource use, these findings can be used to identify ecological risks associated with further impacts on large river systems. (+info)
Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution.
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Average global surface-air temperature is increasing. Contention exists over relative contributions by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Ecological studies attribute plant and animal changes to observed warming. Until now, temperature-species connections have not been statistically attributed directly to anthropogenic climatic change. Using modeled climatic variables and observed species data, which are independent of thermometer records and paleoclimatic proxies, we demonstrate statistically significant "joint attribution," a two-step linkage: human activities contribute significantly to temperature changes and human-changed temperatures are associated with discernible changes in plant and animal traits. Additionally, our analyses provide independent testing of grid-box-scale temperature projections from a general circulation model (HadCM3). (+info)
Prolonged coexistence of humans and megafauna in Pleistocene Australia.
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Recent claims for continent wide disappearance of megafauna at 46.5 thousand calendar years ago (ka) in Australia have been used to support a "blitzkrieg" model, which explains extinctions as the result of rapid overkill by human colonizers. A number of key sites with megafauna remains that significantly postdate 46.5 ka have been excluded from consideration because of questions regarding their stratigraphic integrity. Of these sites, Cuddie Springs is the only locality in Australia where megafauna and cultural remains are found together in sequential stratigraphic horizons, dated from 36-30 ka. Verifying the stratigraphic associations found here would effectively refute the rapid-overkill model and necessitate reconsideration of the regional impacts of global climatic change on megafauna and humans in the lead up to the last glacial maximum. Here, we present geochemical evidence that demonstrates the coexistence of humans and now-extinct megafaunal species on the Australian continent for a minimum of 15 ka. (+info)
Long-term ecological dynamics: reciprocal insights from natural and anthropogenic gradients.
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Many ecological dynamics occur over time-scales that are well beyond the duration of conventional experiments or observations. One useful approach to overcome this problem is extrapolation of temporal dynamics from spatial variation. We review two complementary variants of this approach that have been of late increasingly employed: the use of natural gradients to infer anthropogenic effects and the use of anthropogenic gradients to infer natural dynamics. Recent studies have considered a variety of naturally occurring gradients associated with climate, CO2, disturbance and biodiversity gradients, as well as anthropogenic gradients such as those created by biological invasions, habitat fragmentation and land abandonment. These studies show that natural gradients are useful in predicting long-term consequences of human-induced environmental changes, whereas anthropogenic gradients are helpful in inferring the mechanisms behind natural dynamics because covarying factors are often more clearly understood in anthropogenic gradients than in natural gradients. We classify these studies into several categories, each with different strengths and weaknesses, and outline how the limitations can be overcome by combining the gradient-based approach with other approaches. Overall, studies reviewed here demonstrate that the development of basic ecological concepts and the application of these concepts to environmental problems can be more effective when conducted complementarily than when pursued separately. (+info)
Burning down the brewery: establishing and evacuating an ancient imperial colony at Cerro Baul, Peru.
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Before the Inca reigned, two empires held sway over the central Andes from anno Domini 600 to 1000: the Wari empire to the north ruled much of Peru, and Tiwanaku to the south reigned in Bolivia. Face-to-face contact came when both colonized the Moquegua Valley sierra in southern Peru. The state-sponsored Wari incursion, described here, entailed large-scale agrarian reclamation to sustain the occupation of two hills and the adjacent high mesa of Cerro Baul. Monumental buildings were erected atop the mesa to serve an embassy-like delegation of nobles and attendant personnel that endured for centuries. Final evacuation of the Baul enclave was accompanied by elaborate ceremonies with brewing, drinking, feasting, vessel smashing, and building burning. (+info)
Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations.
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Anthropogenic changes in tropical rainfall are evaluated in a multimodel ensemble of global warming simulations. Major discrepancies on the spatial distribution of these precipitation changes remain in the latest-generation models analyzed here. Despite this uncertainty, we find a number of measures, both global and local, on which reasonable agreement is obtained, notably for the regions of drying trend (negative precipitation anomalies). Models agree on the overall amplitude of the precipitation decreases that occur at the margins of the convective zones, with percent error bars of magnitude similar to those for the tropical warming. Similar agreement is found on a precipitation climate sensitivity defined here and on differential moisture increase inside and outside convection zones, a step in a hypothesized causal path leading to precipitation changes. A measure of local intermodel agreement on significant trends indicates consistent predictions for particular regions. Observed rainfall trends in several data sets show a significant summer drying trend in a main region of intermodel agreement: the Caribbean/Central-American region. (+info)
Depletion, degradation, and recovery potential of estuaries and coastal seas.
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Estuarine and coastal transformation is as old as civilization yet has dramatically accelerated over the past 150 to 300 years. Reconstructed time lines, causes, and consequences of change in 12 once diverse and productive estuaries and coastal seas worldwide show similar patterns: Human impacts have depleted >90% of formerly important species, destroyed >65% of seagrass and wetland habitat, degraded water quality, and accelerated species invasions. Twentieth-century conservation efforts achieved partial recovery of upper trophic levels but have so far failed to restore former ecosystem structure and function. Our results provide detailed historical baselines and quantitative targets for ecosystem-based management and marine conservation. (+info)
Powering the planet: chemical challenges in solar energy utilization.
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Global energy consumption is projected to increase, even in the face of substantial declines in energy intensity, at least 2-fold by midcentury relative to the present because of population and economic growth. This demand could be met, in principle, from fossil energy resources, particularly coal. However, the cumulative nature of CO(2) emissions in the atmosphere demands that holding atmospheric CO(2) levels to even twice their preanthropogenic values by midcentury will require invention, development, and deployment of schemes for carbon-neutral energy production on a scale commensurate with, or larger than, the entire present-day energy supply from all sources combined. Among renewable energy resources, solar energy is by far the largest exploitable resource, providing more energy in 1 hour to the earth than all of the energy consumed by humans in an entire year. In view of the intermittency of insolation, if solar energy is to be a major primary energy source, it must be stored and dispatched on demand to the end user. An especially attractive approach is to store solar-converted energy in the form of chemical bonds, i.e., in a photosynthetic process at a year-round average efficiency significantly higher than current plants or algae, to reduce land-area requirements. Scientific challenges involved with this process include schemes to capture and convert solar energy and then store the energy in the form of chemical bonds, producing oxygen from water and a reduced fuel such as hydrogen, methane, methanol, or other hydrocarbon species. (+info)