Small-Area Analysis: A method of analyzing the variation in utilization of health care in small geographic or demographic areas. It often studies, for example, the usage rates for a given service or procedure in several small areas, documenting the variation among the areas. By comparing high- and low-use areas, the analysis attempts to determine whether there is a pattern to such use and to identify variables that are associated with and contribute to the variation.Catchment Area (Health): A geographic area defined and served by a health program or institution.Bayes Theorem: A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result.