**Logistic Models**: Statistical models which describe the relationship between a qualitative dependent variable (that is, one which can take only certain discrete values, such as the presence or absence of a disease) and an independent variable. A common application is in epidemiology for estimating an individual's risk (probability of a disease) as a function of a given risk factor.

**Risk Factors**: An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, or inborn or inherited characteristic, which, on the basis of epidemiologic evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent.

**Odds Ratio**: The ratio of two odds. The exposure-odds ratio for case control data is the ratio of the odds in favor of exposure among cases to the odds in favor of exposure among noncases. The disease-odds ratio for a cohort or cross section is the ratio of the odds in favor of disease among the exposed to the odds in favor of disease among the unexposed. The prevalence-odds ratio refers to an odds ratio derived cross-sectionally from studies of prevalent cases.

**Multivariate Analysis**: A set of techniques used when variation in several variables has to be studied simultaneously. In statistics, multivariate analysis is interpreted as any analytic method that allows simultaneous study of two or more dependent variables.

**Cross-Sectional Studies**: Studies in which the presence or absence of disease or other health-related variables are determined in each member of the study population or in a representative sample at one particular time. This contrasts with LONGITUDINAL STUDIES which are followed over a period of time.

**Case-Control Studies**: Studies which start with the identification of persons with a disease of interest and a control (comparison, referent) group without the disease. The relationship of an attribute to the disease is examined by comparing diseased and non-diseased persons with regard to the frequency or levels of the attribute in each group.

**Biostatistics**: The application of STATISTICS to biological systems and organisms involving the retrieval or collection, analysis, reduction, and interpretation of qualitative and quantitative data.

**Prevalence**: The total number of cases of a given disease in a specified population at a designated time. It is differentiated from INCIDENCE, which refers to the number of new cases in the population at a given time.

**Socioeconomic Factors**: Social and economic factors that characterize the individual or group within the social structure.

**United States**

**ROC Curve**: A graphic means for assessing the ability of a screening test to discriminate between healthy and diseased persons; may also be used in other studies, e.g., distinguishing stimuli responses as to a faint stimuli or nonstimuli.

**Models, Statistical**: Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc.

**Retrospective Studies**: Studies used to test etiologic hypotheses in which inferences about an exposure to putative causal factors are derived from data relating to characteristics of persons under study or to events or experiences in their past. The essential feature is that some of the persons under study have the disease or outcome of interest and their characteristics are compared with those of unaffected persons.

**Age Factors**: Age as a constituent element or influence contributing to the production of a result. It may be applicable to the cause or the effect of a circumstance. It is used with human or animal concepts but should be differentiated from AGING, a physiological process, and TIME FACTORS which refers only to the passage of time.

**Cohort Studies**: Studies in which subsets of a defined population are identified. These groups may or may not be exposed to factors hypothesized to influence the probability of the occurrence of a particular disease or other outcome. Cohorts are defined populations which, as a whole, are followed in an attempt to determine distinguishing subgroup characteristics.

**Predictive Value of Tests**: In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test.

**Sex Factors**: Maleness or femaleness as a constituent element or influence contributing to the production of a result. It may be applicable to the cause or effect of a circumstance. It is used with human or animal concepts but should be differentiated from SEX CHARACTERISTICS, anatomical or physiological manifestations of sex, and from SEX DISTRIBUTION, the number of males and females in given circumstances.

**Risk Assessment**: The qualitative or quantitative estimation of the likelihood of adverse effects that may result from exposure to specified health hazards or from the absence of beneficial influences. (Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 1988)

**Prospective Studies**: Observation of a population for a sufficient number of persons over a sufficient number of years to generate incidence or mortality rates subsequent to the selection of the study group.

**Smoking**: Inhaling and exhaling the smoke of burning TOBACCO.

**Questionnaires**: Predetermined sets of questions used to collect data - clinical data, social status, occupational group, etc. The term is often applied to a self-completed survey instrument.

**Time Factors**: Elements of limited time intervals, contributing to particular results or situations.

**Japan**

**Health Surveys**: A systematic collection of factual data pertaining to health and disease in a human population within a given geographic area.

**Longitudinal Studies**: Studies in which variables relating to an individual or group of individuals are assessed over a period of time.

**Pregnancy**: The status during which female mammals carry their developing young (EMBRYOS or FETUSES) in utero before birth, beginning from FERTILIZATION to BIRTH.

**Probability**: The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process.

**France**: A country in western Europe bordered by the Atlantic Ocean, the English Channel, the Mediterranean Sea, and the countries of Belgium, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, the principalities of Andorra and Monaco, and by the duchy of Luxembourg. Its capital is Paris.

**Residence Characteristics**: Elements of residence that characterize a population. They are applicable in determining need for and utilization of health services.

**Regression Analysis**: Procedures for finding the mathematical function which best describes the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. In linear regression (see LINEAR MODELS) the relationship is constrained to be a straight line and LEAST-SQUARES ANALYSIS is used to determine the best fit. In logistic regression (see LOGISTIC MODELS) the dependent variable is qualitative rather than continuously variable and LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS are used to find the best relationship. In multiple regression, the dependent variable is considered to depend on more than a single independent variable.

**Confidence Intervals**: A range of values for a variable of interest, e.g., a rate, constructed so that this range has a specified probability of including the true value of the variable.

**Infant, Newborn**: An infant during the first month after birth.

**Epidemiologic Methods**: Research techniques that focus on study designs and data gathering methods in human and animal populations.

**Incidence**: The number of new cases of a given disease during a given period in a specified population. It also is used for the rate at which new events occur in a defined population. It is differentiated from PREVALENCE, which refers to all cases, new or old, in the population at a given time.

**Sensitivity and Specificity**: Binary classification measures to assess test results. Sensitivity or recall rate is the proportion of true positives. Specificity is the probability of correctly determining the absence of a condition. (From Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 2d ed)

**Follow-Up Studies**: Studies in which individuals or populations are followed to assess the outcome of exposures, procedures, or effects of a characteristic, e.g., occurrence of disease.

**Linear Models**: Statistical models in which the value of a parameter for a given value of a factor is assumed to be equal to a + bx, where a and b are constants. The models predict a linear regression.

**Reproducibility of Results**: The statistical reproducibility of measurements (often in a clinical context), including the testing of instrumentation or techniques to obtain reproducible results. The concept includes reproducibility of physiological measurements, which may be used to develop rules to assess probability or prognosis, or response to a stimulus; reproducibility of occurrence of a condition; and reproducibility of experimental results.

**Hospital Mortality**: A vital statistic measuring or recording the rate of death from any cause in hospitalized populations.

**Italy**

**Food Microbiology**: The presence of bacteria, viruses, and fungi in food and food products. This term is not restricted to pathogenic organisms: the presence of various non-pathogenic bacteria and fungi in cheeses and wines, for example, is included in this concept.

**Severity of Illness Index**: Levels within a diagnostic group which are established by various measurement criteria applied to the seriousness of a patient's disorder.

**Brazil**

**Educational Status**: Educational attainment or level of education of individuals.

**Prognosis**: A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations.

**European Continental Ancestry Group**: Individuals whose ancestral origins are in the continent of Europe.

**Genetic Predisposition to Disease**: A latent susceptibility to disease at the genetic level, which may be activated under certain conditions.

**China**: A country spanning from central Asia to the Pacific Ocean.

**Likelihood Functions**: Functions constructed from a statistical model and a set of observed data which give the probability of that data for various values of the unknown model parameters. Those parameter values that maximize the probability are the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters.

**Treatment Outcome**: Evaluation undertaken to assess the results or consequences of management and procedures used in combating disease in order to determine the efficacy, effectiveness, safety, and practicability of these interventions in individual cases or series.

**Data Interpretation, Statistical**: Application of statistical procedures to analyze specific observed or assumed facts from a particular study.

**Comorbidity**: The presence of co-existing or additional diseases with reference to an initial diagnosis or with reference to the index condition that is the subject of study. Comorbidity may affect the ability of affected individuals to function and also their survival; it may be used as a prognostic indicator for length of hospital stay, cost factors, and outcome or survival.

**Health Status**: The level of health of the individual, group, or population as subjectively assessed by the individual or by more objective measures.

**Ethnic Groups**: A group of people with a common cultural heritage that sets them apart from others in a variety of social relationships.

**Genotype**: The genetic constitution of the individual, comprising the ALLELES present at each GENETIC LOCUS.

**Models, Biological**: Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.

**Alcohol Drinking**: Behaviors associated with the ingesting of alcoholic beverages, including social drinking.

**Risk**: The probability that an event will occur. It encompasses a variety of measures of the probability of a generally unfavorable outcome.

**Models, Theoretical**: Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.

**African Americans**: Persons living in the United States having origins in any of the black groups of Africa.

**Chi-Square Distribution**: A distribution in which a variable is distributed like the sum of the squares of any given independent random variable, each of which has a normal distribution with mean of zero and variance of one. The chi-square test is a statistical test based on comparison of a test statistic to a chi-square distribution. The oldest of these tests are used to detect whether two or more population distributions differ from one another.

**Body Mass Index**: An indicator of body density as determined by the relationship of BODY WEIGHT to BODY HEIGHT. BMI=weight (kg)/height squared (m2). BMI correlates with body fat (ADIPOSE TISSUE). Their relationship varies with age and gender. For adults, BMI falls into these categories: below 18.5 (underweight); 18.5-24.9 (normal); 25.0-29.9 (overweight); 30.0 and above (obese). (National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

**Obesity**: A status with BODY WEIGHT that is grossly above the acceptable or desirable weight, usually due to accumulation of excess FATS in the body. The standards may vary with age, sex, genetic or cultural background. In the BODY MASS INDEX, a BMI greater than 30.0 kg/m2 is considered obese, and a BMI greater than 40.0 kg/m2 is considered morbidly obese (MORBID OBESITY).

**Occupational Exposure**: The exposure to potentially harmful chemical, physical, or biological agents that occurs as a result of one's occupation.

**Statistics as Topic**: The science and art of collecting, summarizing, and analyzing data that are subject to random variation. The term is also applied to the data themselves and to the summarization of the data.

**Life Style**: Typical way of life or manner of living characteristic of an individual or group. (From APA, Thesaurus of Psychological Index Terms, 8th ed)

**Data Collection**: Systematic gathering of data for a particular purpose from various sources, including questionnaires, interviews, observation, existing records, and electronic devices. The process is usually preliminary to statistical analysis of the data.

**Algorithms**: A procedure consisting of a sequence of algebraic formulas and/or logical steps to calculate or determine a given task.

**Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide**: A single nucleotide variation in a genetic sequence that occurs at appreciable frequency in the population.

**HIV Infections**: Includes the spectrum of human immunodeficiency virus infections that range from asymptomatic seropositivity, thru AIDS-related complex (ARC), to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS).

**Breast Neoplasms**: Tumors or cancer of the human BREAST.

**Hypertension**: Persistently high systemic arterial BLOOD PRESSURE. Based on multiple readings (BLOOD PRESSURE DETERMINATION), hypertension is currently defined as when SYSTOLIC PRESSURE is consistently greater than 140 mm Hg or when DIASTOLIC PRESSURE is consistently 90 mm Hg or more.

**Biological Markers**: Measurable and quantifiable biological parameters (e.g., specific enzyme concentration, specific hormone concentration, specific gene phenotype distribution in a population, presence of biological substances) which serve as indices for health- and physiology-related assessments, such as disease risk, psychiatric disorders, environmental exposure and its effects, disease diagnosis, metabolic processes, substance abuse, pregnancy, cell line development, epidemiologic studies, etc.

**Polymorphism, Genetic**: The regular and simultaneous occurrence in a single interbreeding population of two or more discontinuous genotypes. The concept includes differences in genotypes ranging in size from a single nucleotide site (POLYMORPHISM, SINGLE NUCLEOTIDE) to large nucleotide sequences visible at a chromosomal level.

**Models, Genetic**: Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of genetic processes or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.

**Survival Analysis**: A class of statistical procedures for estimating the survival function (function of time, starting with a population 100% well at a given time and providing the percentage of the population still well at later times). The survival analysis is then used for making inferences about the effects of treatments, prognostic factors, exposures, and other covariates on the function.

**Analysis of Variance**: A statistical technique that isolates and assesses the contributions of categorical independent variables to variation in the mean of a continuous dependent variable.

**Computer Simulation**: Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes.

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