**Likelihood Functions**: Functions constructed from a statistical model and a set of observed data which give the probability of that data for various values of the unknown model parameters. Those parameter values that maximize the probability are the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters.

**Bayes Theorem**: A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result.

**Signal-To-Noise Ratio**: The comparison of the quantity of meaningful data to the irrelevant or incorrect data.

**Algorithms**: A procedure consisting of a sequence of algebraic formulas and/or logical steps to calculate or determine a given task.

**Computer Simulation**: Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes.

**Models, Statistical**: Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc.

**Markov Chains**: A stochastic process such that the conditional probability distribution for a state at any future instant, given the present state, is unaffected by any additional knowledge of the past history of the system.

**Models, Genetic**: Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of genetic processes or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.

**Monte Carlo Method**: In statistics, a technique for numerically approximating the solution of a mathematical problem by studying the distribution of some random variable, often generated by a computer. The name alludes to the randomness characteristic of the games of chance played at the gambling casinos in Monte Carlo. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, 1993)

**Probability**: The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process.

**Data Interpretation, Statistical**: Application of statistical procedures to analyze specific observed or assumed facts from a particular study.

**Models, Biological**: Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.

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