The growth of demand will limit output growth for food over the next quarter century.
(57/8791)
The rate of growth of world food demand will be much slower for 1990-2010 than it was for the prior three decades. The major factor determining the increase in food demand is population growth. Income growth has a much smaller effect. From 1960 to 1990, population growth accounted for approximately three fourths of the growth in demand or use of grain. For 1990-2010, it is anticipated that population growth will account for nearly all of the increase in world demand for grain. The rate of population growth from 1990 to 2020 is projected to be at an annual rate of 1.3% compared with 1.9% for 1960 to 1990-a decline of more than 30%. World per capita use of grain will increase very little-perhaps by 4%. The increase in grain use is projected to be 40% less than in 1960-1990. It is anticipated that real grain prices will decline during the period, although not nearly as much as the 40% decline in the previous three decades. Concern has been expressed concerning the deterioration of the quality and productivity of the world's farmland. A study for China and Indonesia indicates that there has been no significant change in the productive capacity of the land over the past 50 years. Contrary to numerous claims, the depth of the topsoil has not changed, indicating that erosion has had little or no impact. (+info)
Impact of the treating institution on survival of patients with "poor-prognosis" metastatic nonseminoma. European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Genito-Urinary Tract Cancer Collaborative Group and the Medical Research Council Testicular Cancer Working Party.
(58/8791)
BACKGROUND: Because metastatic nonseminomatous germ cell cancer is a rare but treatable cancer, we have explored whether there is an association between the experience of the treating institution with this disease and the long-term clinical outcome of the patients, particularly patients with a poor prognosis. METHODS: We analyzed data on 380 patients treated in one of 49 institutions participating in the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/ Medical Research Council randomized trial of four cycles of bleomycin-etoposide-cisplatin followed by two cycles of etoposide-cisplatin versus three cycles of bleomycin-vincristine-cisplatin followed by three cycles of etoposide-ifosfamide-cisplatin-bleomycin, both treatment regimens given with or without filgrastim (granulocyte colony-stimulating factor). Institutions were divided into four groups based on the total number of patients entered in the trial. The groups were compared by use of the Cox proportional hazards model stratified for treatment with filgrastim and for patient prognosis as defined by the International Germ Cell Consensus Classification Group. With the use of this classification, only 65 % of the patients had a poor prognosis. RESULTS: Patients treated in the 26 institutions that entered fewer than five patients into the trial had an overall survival that was statistically significantly worse (two-sided P = .010; hazard ratio = 1.85; 95% confidence interval = 1.16-3.03) than that of patients treated in the 23 institutions that entered five patients or more. Overall survival and failure-free survival were similar among institutions that entered at least five patients. The observed effect may be related to differences in adherence to the chemotherapy protocol and in the frequency and extent of surgery for residual masses, although only the differences in dose intensity achieved statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated in institutions that entered fewer than five patients into the trial appeared to have poorer survival than those treated in institutions that entered a larger number of patients with "poor-prognosis" nonseminoma. (+info)
Use of antimicrobial growth promoters in food animals and Enterococcus faecium resistance to therapeutic antimicrobial drugs in Europe.
(59/8791)
Supplementing animal feed with antimicrobial agents to enhance growth has been common practice for more than 30 years and is estimated to constitute more than half the total antimicrobial use worldwide. The potential public health consequences of this use have been debated; however, until recently, clear evidence of a health risk was not available. Accumulating evidence now indicates that the use of the glycopeptide avoparcin as a growth promoter has created in food animals a major reservoir of Enterococcus faecium, which contains the high level glycopeptide resistance determinant vanA, located on the Tn1546 transposon. Furthermore, glycopeptide-resistant strains, as well as resistance determinants, can be transmitted from animals to humans. Two antimicrobial classes expected to provide the future therapeutic options for treatment of infections with vancomycin-resistant enterococci have analogues among the growth promoters, and a huge animal reservoir of resistant E. faecium has already been created, posing a new public health problem. (+info)
Emergence of related nontoxigenic Corynebacterium diphtheriae biotype mitis strains in Western Europe.
(60/8791)
We report on 17 isolates of Corynebacterium diphtheriae biotype mitis with related ribotypes from Switzerland, Germany, and France. Isolates came from skin and subcutaneous infections of injecting drug users, homeless persons, prisoners, and elderly orthopedic patients with joint prostheses or primary joint infections. Such isolates had only been observed in Switzerland. (+info)
Worldwide trends in DDT levels in human breast milk.
(61/8791)
BACKGROUND: Concern over human breast milk contamination with the pesticide DDT (1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(chlorodiphenyl)ethane) has prompted numerous studies around the world during the last five decades. This article examines trends in reported DDT levels, and the apparent effect of restrictions on DDT use. METHODS: More than 130 published values for DDT in human milk since 1951 were compiled, and trend lines were fit for regions of the world. RESULTS: Population means have declined in much of the world, from 5000-10000 microg DDT/kg milk fat to around 1000 today in many areas. Although different regions have different means, the decline seen in various countries corresponds to their restricting DDT use. DISCUSSION: DDT concentrations in human milk have declined in most areas of the world, consistent with restrictions on its use. Nevertheless, levels can be high in areas still using DDT, even higher than the World Health Organization's recommended limit for infants. These results indicate that population averages can be reduced by a predictable amount as DDT use is restricted. (+info)
Hepatitis B carriage explains the excess rate of hepatocellular carcinoma for Maori, Pacific Island and Asian people compared to Europeans in New Zealand.
(62/8791)
BACKGROUND: The aim of this research was to determine the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) carrier prevalence among cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and the population attributable risk of HBsAg carriage for HCC, by ethnicity in New Zealand. METHODS: The hospital notes of HCC cases registered with the New Zealand Cancer Registry, for the years 1987-1994 inclusive, were viewed to determine the HBsAg status. Results The HBsAg status was determined for 193 cases of HCC. The HBsAg carrier prevalence for non-Europeans with HCC was markedly higher than that for Europeans, being 76.7% for Maori, 80.0% for Pacific Island people, and 88.5% for Asians, compared to 6.0% for Europeans. In addition to the effect of ethnicity, HCC cases aged <60 years were more likely to be HBsAg carriers than those aged > or = 60 years. The estimated population attributable risk of HBsAg for HCC, within each ethnic group, was only marginally less than the HBsAg prevalence due to the high relative risk of HBsAg carriage for HCC. The standardized incidence rate ratios of HCC for Maori, Pacific Island people and Asians compared to Europeans were 9.6, 20.4, and 22.3, respectively. Hepatocellular carcinoma attributable to HBsAg carriage explained 79%, 83%, and 92% of the excess standardized rate of HCC, compared to Europeans, for Maori, Pacific Island people, and Asians, respectively. Conclusions The HBsAg carrier prevalence in non-European cases of HCC in New Zealand is between 75% and 90%. HBsAg carriage explains the majority of the excess rate of HCC in non-Europeans compared to Europeans in New Zealand. (+info)
Social differences of very preterm birth in Europe: interaction with obstetric history. Europop Group.
(63/8791)
Social differences of very preterm birth (22-32 completed weeks of amenorrhea) were studied using data from a large case-control survey in Europe between 1994 and 1997; 1,675 very preterm births and 7,965 full-term births were included. The relation between social factors and very preterm birth was studied according to obstetric history and the mode of delivery onset. Very preterm birth was significantly related to low educational level among women with no previous adverse pregnancy outcome (odds ratio (OR) = 2.67, 95 percent confidence interval (CI) 1.66-4.28) and among primigravid women and those with previous first-trimester abortion (OR = 2.01, 95 percent CI 1.56-2.58). In this group, unemployment of all household members was associated with a double risk of very preterm birth. No significant association between very preterm birth and socioeconomic status was observed among women with previous second-trimester abortion or preterm birth. Socioeconomic indicators remained significantly associated with both spontaneous and induced very preterm births among women with no previous late fetal loss or preterm birth. The results are consistent with social factors affecting the risk of very preterm birth, but the relation differs according to obstetric history. (+info)
Family history, ethnicity, and relative risk of breast cancer in a prospective cohort study of older women.
(64/8791)
In a cohort of 27,578 postmenopausal Iowa women, we examined whether the risk with a family history of breast cancer differs by self-reported ethnicity. A total of 1042 breast cancer cases occurred over 10 years of follow-up. Using a phylogenetic tree, ethnicities were combined into five groups: Scandinavian; English, Scottish, Welsh, and Dutch (ESWD); Irish; German; and Other European. The incidence of breast cancer did not differ significantly by ethnicity, although the highest rates were observed among Scandinavian women (488 per 100,000 per year) and the lowest among Irish women (353 per 100,000 per year). The prevalence of a family history of breast cancer was not significantly associated with ethnicity when only first-degree relatives were considered (P = 0.17), but inclusion of data on second-degree relatives increased the statistical significance of the association (P = 0.003). Differences in mean levels of breast cancer risk factors between ethnicities were generally small but statistically significant. Proportional hazards regression was performed to evaluate potential interactions of family history with ethnicity on breast cancer incidence. A family history of breast cancer was associated with increased relative risks among ESWD, Germans, and Other Europeans but not among Irish and Scandinavians. Relative risk estimates were not attenuated upon addition of known breast cancer risk factors to the model, implying that the distribution of these risk factors by ethnicity is unlikely to explain some of the observed ethnic-specific differences between family history and risk of breast cancer. Results of this study could have implications for studies of common genetic polymorphisms and cancer risk. (+info)