The expected number of new cases of an infection caused by an infected individual, in a population consisting of susceptible contacts only.
The transmission of infectious disease or pathogens. When transmission is within the same species, the mode can be horizontal or vertical (INFECTIOUS DISEASE TRANSMISSION, VERTICAL).
Sudden increase in the incidence of a disease. The concept includes EPIDEMICS and PANDEMICS.
Sudden outbreaks of a disease in a country or region not previously recognized in that area, or a rapid increase in the number of new cases of a previous existing endemic disease. Epidemics can also refer to outbreaks of disease in animal or plant populations.
Communicable diseases, also known as infectious diseases, are medical conditions that result from the infection, transmission, or colonization of pathogenic microorganisms like bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites, which can be spread from one host to another through various modes of transmission.
Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.
An acute viral infection in humans involving the respiratory tract. It is marked by inflammation of the NASAL MUCOSA; the PHARYNX; and conjunctiva, and by headache and severe, often generalized, myalgia.
Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.
Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc.
Insects that transmit infective organisms from one host to another or from an inanimate reservoir to an animate host.
The total process by which organisms produce offspring. (Stedman, 25th ed)
Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes.
Programs of surveillance designed to prevent the transmission of disease by any means from person to person or from animal to man.
The pattern of any process, or the interrelationship of phenomena, which affects growth or change within a population.
Restriction of freedom of movement of individuals who have been exposed to infectious or communicable disease in order to prevent its spread; a period of detention of vessels, vehicles, or travelers coming from infected or suspected places; and detention or isolation on account of suspected contagion. It includes government regulations on the detention of animals at frontiers or ports of entrance for the prevention of infectious disease, through a period of isolation before being allowed to enter a country. (From Dorland, 28th ed & Black's Veterinary Dictionary, 17th ed)
A subtype of INFLUENZA A VIRUS with the surface proteins hemagglutinin 1 and neuraminidase 1. The H1N1 subtype was responsible for the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918.
Epidemics of infectious disease that have spread to many countries, often more than one continent, and usually affecting a large number of people.
Elements of limited time intervals, contributing to particular results or situations.
Divisions of the year according to some regularly recurrent phenomena usually astronomical or climatic. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed)

Utility of R0 as a predictor of disease invasion in structured populations. (1/105)

Early theoretical work on disease invasion typically assumed large and well-mixed host populations. Many human and wildlife systems, however, have small groups with limited movement among groups. In these situations, the basic reproductive number, R0, is likely to be a poor predictor of a disease pandemic because it typically does not account for group structure and movement of individuals among groups. We extend recent work by combining the movement of hosts, transmission within groups, recovery from infection and the recruitment of new susceptibles into a stochastic model of disease in a host metapopulation. We focus on how recruitment of susceptibles affects disease invasion and how population structure can affect the frequency of superspreading events (SSEs). We show that the frequency of SSEs may decrease with the reduced movement and the group sizes due to the limited number of susceptible individuals available. Classification tree analysis of the model results illustrates the hierarchical nature of disease invasion in host metapopulations. First, the pathogen must effectively transmit within a group (R0>1), and then the pathogen must persist within a group long enough to allow for movement among the groups. Therefore, the factors affecting disease persistence--such as infectious period, group size and recruitment of new susceptibles--are as important as the local transmission rates in predicting the spread of pathogens across a metapopulation.  (+info)

Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures. (2/105)

Many countries plan to close schools during a future influenza pandemic, although the potential impact is poorly understood. We apply a model of the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza to consultation, serological and clinical data from the United Kingdom from the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic, to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0), the proportion of infected individuals who experience clinical symptoms and the impact of school/nursery closures. The R0 for Asian influenza was about 1.8 and 60-65% of infected individuals were estimated to have experienced clinical symptoms. During a future pandemic, closure of schools/nurseries could reduce the epidemic size only by a very small amount (<10%) if R0 is high (e.g. 2.5 or 3.5), and modest reductions, e.g. 22% might be possible if it is low (1.8) and schools are closed early, depending on assumptions about contact patterns. Further data on contact patterns and their dependence on school closures are needed.  (+info)

A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd. (3/105)

We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.  (+info)

The effect of heterogeneous infectious period and contagiousness on the dynamics of Salmonella transmission in dairy cattle. (4/105)

 (+info)

Epidemic thresholds in dynamic contact networks. (5/105)

 (+info)

Household structure and infectious disease transmission. (6/105)

 (+info)

Latent coinfection and the maintenance of strain diversity. (7/105)

 (+info)

Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil. (8/105)

 (+info)

The Basic Reproduction Number, often denoted as R0 (pronounced "R nought" or "R zero"), is a fundamental concept in infectious disease epidemiology. It refers to the average number of new infections that a single infected individual is expected to cause in a population that is entirely susceptible to the infection, in the absence of any interventions or behavioral changes.

In other words, R0 provides an estimate of how contagious an infectious agent is during the initial phase of an outbreak, before any immunity has developed in the population. An R0 greater than 1 indicates that the disease has the potential to spread and cause an epidemic, while an R0 less than 1 suggests that the disease will likely die out on its own.

It's important to note that R0 is not a fixed or absolute value for a particular infectious agent, as it can vary depending on various factors such as the duration of the infectious period, the frequency and nature of contacts between individuals, and the susceptibility of the population. Therefore, R0 should be interpreted as an approximate measure of transmissibility that provides useful insights into the potential spread of a disease under specific conditions.

Infectious disease transmission refers to the spread of an infectious agent or pathogen from an infected person, animal, or contaminated object to another susceptible host. This can occur through various routes, including:

1. Contact transmission: Direct contact with an infected person or animal, such as through touching, kissing, or sexual contact.
2. Droplet transmission: Inhalation of respiratory droplets containing the pathogen, which are generated when an infected person coughs, sneezes, talks, or breathes heavily.
3. Airborne transmission: Inhalation of smaller particles called aerosols that can remain suspended in the air for longer periods and travel farther distances than droplets.
4. Fecal-oral transmission: Consuming food or water contaminated with fecal matter containing the pathogen, often through poor hygiene practices.
5. Vector-borne transmission: Transmission via an intermediate vector, such as a mosquito or tick, that becomes infected after feeding on an infected host and then transmits the pathogen to another host during a subsequent blood meal.
6. Vehicle-borne transmission: Consuming food or water contaminated with the pathogen through vehicles like soil, water, or fomites (inanimate objects).

Preventing infectious disease transmission is crucial in controlling outbreaks and epidemics. Measures include good personal hygiene, vaccination, use of personal protective equipment (PPE), safe food handling practices, and environmental disinfection.

A disease outbreak is defined as the occurrence of cases of a disease in excess of what would normally be expected in a given time and place. It may affect a small and localized group or a large number of people spread over a wide area, even internationally. An outbreak may be caused by a new agent, a change in the agent's virulence or host susceptibility, or an increase in the size or density of the host population.

Outbreaks can have significant public health and economic impacts, and require prompt investigation and control measures to prevent further spread of the disease. The investigation typically involves identifying the source of the outbreak, determining the mode of transmission, and implementing measures to interrupt the chain of infection. This may include vaccination, isolation or quarantine, and education of the public about the risks and prevention strategies.

Examples of disease outbreaks include foodborne illnesses linked to contaminated food or water, respiratory infections spread through coughing and sneezing, and mosquito-borne diseases such as Zika virus and West Nile virus. Outbreaks can also occur in healthcare settings, such as hospitals and nursing homes, where vulnerable populations may be at increased risk of infection.

An epidemic is the rapid spread of an infectious disease to a large number of people in a given population within a short period of time. It is typically used to describe situations where the occurrence of a disease is significantly higher than what is normally expected in a certain area or community. Epidemics can be caused by various factors, including pathogens, environmental changes, and human behavior. They can have serious consequences for public health, leading to increased morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. To control an epidemic, public health officials often implement measures such as vaccination, quarantine, and education campaigns to prevent further spread of the disease.

Communicable diseases, also known as infectious diseases, are illnesses that can be transmitted from one person to another through various modes of transmission. These modes include:

1. Direct contact: This occurs when an individual comes into physical contact with an infected person, such as touching or shaking hands, or having sexual contact.
2. Indirect contact: This happens when an individual comes into contact with contaminated objects or surfaces, like doorknobs, towels, or utensils.
3. Airborne transmission: Infectious agents can be spread through the air when an infected person coughs, sneezes, talks, or sings, releasing droplets containing the pathogen into the environment. These droplets can then be inhaled by nearby individuals.
4. Droplet transmission: Similar to airborne transmission, but involving larger respiratory droplets that don't remain suspended in the air for long periods and typically travel shorter distances (usually less than 6 feet).
5. Vector-borne transmission: This occurs when an infected animal or insect, such as a mosquito or tick, transmits the disease to a human through a bite or other means.

Examples of communicable diseases include COVID-19, influenza, tuberculosis, measles, hepatitis B, and malaria. Preventive measures for communicable diseases often involve public health initiatives like vaccination programs, hygiene promotion, and vector control strategies.

The term "Theoretical Models" is used in various scientific fields, including medicine, to describe a representation of a complex system or phenomenon. It is a simplified framework that explains how different components of the system interact with each other and how they contribute to the overall behavior of the system. Theoretical models are often used in medical research to understand and predict the outcomes of diseases, treatments, or public health interventions.

A theoretical model can take many forms, such as mathematical equations, computer simulations, or conceptual diagrams. It is based on a set of assumptions and hypotheses about the underlying mechanisms that drive the system. By manipulating these variables and observing the effects on the model's output, researchers can test their assumptions and generate new insights into the system's behavior.

Theoretical models are useful for medical research because they allow scientists to explore complex systems in a controlled and systematic way. They can help identify key drivers of disease or treatment outcomes, inform the design of clinical trials, and guide the development of new interventions. However, it is important to recognize that theoretical models are simplifications of reality and may not capture all the nuances and complexities of real-world systems. Therefore, they should be used in conjunction with other forms of evidence, such as experimental data and observational studies, to inform medical decision-making.

Influenza, also known as the flu, is a highly contagious viral infection that attacks the respiratory system of humans. It is caused by influenza viruses A, B, or C and is characterized by the sudden onset of fever, chills, headache, muscle pain, sore throat, cough, runny nose, and fatigue. Influenza can lead to complications such as pneumonia, bronchitis, and ear infections, and can be particularly dangerous for young children, older adults, pregnant women, and people with weakened immune systems or chronic medical conditions. The virus is spread through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks, and can also survive on surfaces for a period of time. Influenza viruses are constantly changing, which makes it necessary to get vaccinated annually to protect against the most recent and prevalent strains.

Biological models, also known as physiological models or organismal models, are simplified representations of biological systems, processes, or mechanisms that are used to understand and explain the underlying principles and relationships. These models can be theoretical (conceptual or mathematical) or physical (such as anatomical models, cell cultures, or animal models). They are widely used in biomedical research to study various phenomena, including disease pathophysiology, drug action, and therapeutic interventions.

Examples of biological models include:

1. Mathematical models: These use mathematical equations and formulas to describe complex biological systems or processes, such as population dynamics, metabolic pathways, or gene regulation networks. They can help predict the behavior of these systems under different conditions and test hypotheses about their underlying mechanisms.
2. Cell cultures: These are collections of cells grown in a controlled environment, typically in a laboratory dish or flask. They can be used to study cellular processes, such as signal transduction, gene expression, or metabolism, and to test the effects of drugs or other treatments on these processes.
3. Animal models: These are living organisms, usually vertebrates like mice, rats, or non-human primates, that are used to study various aspects of human biology and disease. They can provide valuable insights into the pathophysiology of diseases, the mechanisms of drug action, and the safety and efficacy of new therapies.
4. Anatomical models: These are physical representations of biological structures or systems, such as plastic models of organs or tissues, that can be used for educational purposes or to plan surgical procedures. They can also serve as a basis for developing more sophisticated models, such as computer simulations or 3D-printed replicas.

Overall, biological models play a crucial role in advancing our understanding of biology and medicine, helping to identify new targets for therapeutic intervention, develop novel drugs and treatments, and improve human health.

Statistical models are mathematical representations that describe the relationship between variables in a given dataset. They are used to analyze and interpret data in order to make predictions or test hypotheses about a population. In the context of medicine, statistical models can be used for various purposes such as:

1. Disease risk prediction: By analyzing demographic, clinical, and genetic data using statistical models, researchers can identify factors that contribute to an individual's risk of developing certain diseases. This information can then be used to develop personalized prevention strategies or early detection methods.

2. Clinical trial design and analysis: Statistical models are essential tools for designing and analyzing clinical trials. They help determine sample size, allocate participants to treatment groups, and assess the effectiveness and safety of interventions.

3. Epidemiological studies: Researchers use statistical models to investigate the distribution and determinants of health-related events in populations. This includes studying patterns of disease transmission, evaluating public health interventions, and estimating the burden of diseases.

4. Health services research: Statistical models are employed to analyze healthcare utilization, costs, and outcomes. This helps inform decisions about resource allocation, policy development, and quality improvement initiatives.

5. Biostatistics and bioinformatics: In these fields, statistical models are used to analyze large-scale molecular data (e.g., genomics, proteomics) to understand biological processes and identify potential therapeutic targets.

In summary, statistical models in medicine provide a framework for understanding complex relationships between variables and making informed decisions based on data-driven insights.

Insect vectors are insects that transmit disease-causing pathogens (such as viruses, bacteria, parasites) from one host to another. They do this while feeding on the host's blood or tissues. The insects themselves are not infected by the pathogen but act as mechanical carriers that pass it on during their bite. Examples of diseases spread by insect vectors include malaria (transmitted by mosquitoes), Lyme disease (transmitted by ticks), and plague (transmitted by fleas). Proper prevention measures, such as using insect repellent and reducing standing water where mosquitoes breed, can help reduce the risk of contracting these diseases.

Reproduction, in the context of biology and medicine, refers to the process by which organisms produce offspring. It is a complex process that involves the creation, development, and growth of new individuals from parent organisms. In sexual reproduction, this process typically involves the combination of genetic material from two parents through the fusion of gametes (sex cells) such as sperm and egg cells. This results in the formation of a zygote, which then develops into a new individual with a unique genetic makeup.

In contrast, asexual reproduction does not involve the fusion of gametes and can occur through various mechanisms such as budding, fragmentation, or parthenogenesis. Asexual reproduction results in offspring that are genetically identical to the parent organism.

Reproduction is a fundamental process that ensures the survival and continuation of species over time. It is also an area of active research in fields such as reproductive medicine, where scientists and clinicians work to understand and address issues related to human fertility, contraception, and genetic disorders.

A computer simulation is a process that involves creating a model of a real-world system or phenomenon on a computer and then using that model to run experiments and make predictions about how the system will behave under different conditions. In the medical field, computer simulations are used for a variety of purposes, including:

1. Training and education: Computer simulations can be used to create realistic virtual environments where medical students and professionals can practice their skills and learn new procedures without risk to actual patients. For example, surgeons may use simulation software to practice complex surgical techniques before performing them on real patients.
2. Research and development: Computer simulations can help medical researchers study the behavior of biological systems at a level of detail that would be difficult or impossible to achieve through experimental methods alone. By creating detailed models of cells, tissues, organs, or even entire organisms, researchers can use simulation software to explore how these systems function and how they respond to different stimuli.
3. Drug discovery and development: Computer simulations are an essential tool in modern drug discovery and development. By modeling the behavior of drugs at a molecular level, researchers can predict how they will interact with their targets in the body and identify potential side effects or toxicities. This information can help guide the design of new drugs and reduce the need for expensive and time-consuming clinical trials.
4. Personalized medicine: Computer simulations can be used to create personalized models of individual patients based on their unique genetic, physiological, and environmental characteristics. These models can then be used to predict how a patient will respond to different treatments and identify the most effective therapy for their specific condition.

Overall, computer simulations are a powerful tool in modern medicine, enabling researchers and clinicians to study complex systems and make predictions about how they will behave under a wide range of conditions. By providing insights into the behavior of biological systems at a level of detail that would be difficult or impossible to achieve through experimental methods alone, computer simulations are helping to advance our understanding of human health and disease.

Communicable disease control is a branch of public health that focuses on preventing and controlling the spread of infectious diseases within a population. The goal is to reduce the incidence and prevalence of communicable diseases through various strategies, such as:

1. Surveillance: Monitoring and tracking the occurrence of communicable diseases in a population to identify trends, outbreaks, and high-risk areas.
2. Prevention: Implementing measures to prevent the transmission of infectious agents, such as vaccination programs, education campaigns, and environmental interventions (e.g., water treatment, food safety).
3. Case management: Identifying, diagnosing, and treating cases of communicable diseases to reduce their duration and severity, as well as to prevent further spread.
4. Contact tracing: Identifying and monitoring individuals who have been in close contact with infected persons to detect and prevent secondary cases.
5. Outbreak response: Coordinating a rapid and effective response to disease outbreaks, including the implementation of control measures, communication with affected communities, and evaluation of interventions.
6. Collaboration: Working closely with healthcare providers, laboratories, policymakers, and other stakeholders to ensure a coordinated and comprehensive approach to communicable disease control.
7. Research: Conducting research to better understand the epidemiology, transmission dynamics, and prevention strategies for communicable diseases.

Effective communicable disease control requires a multidisciplinary approach that combines expertise in medicine, epidemiology, microbiology, public health, social sciences, and healthcare management.

Population dynamics, in the context of public health and epidemiology, refers to the study of the changes in size and structure of a population over time, as well as the factors that contribute to those changes. This can include birth rates, death rates, migration patterns, aging, and other demographic characteristics. Understanding population dynamics is crucial for planning and implementing public health interventions, such as vaccination programs or disease prevention strategies, as they allow researchers and policymakers to identify vulnerable populations, predict future health trends, and evaluate the impact of public health initiatives.

Quarantine is a public health practice used to protect the population from the spread of communicable diseases. It involves separating and restricting the movement of individuals who have been exposed to an infectious agent, but are not yet showing symptoms, for a period of time to determine if they become sick and to prevent transmission during the incubation period. The term "quarantine" comes from the Italian word "quaranta," which means "forty," as it originally referred to the 40-day period that ships were required to be isolated before passengers and crew could go ashore during the Black Death plague epidemic in the 14th century. Nowadays, quarantine is often used in the context of travel restrictions and isolation measures for individuals who may have been exposed to diseases such as COVID-19, Ebola, or tuberculosis.

'Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype' is a specific subtype of the influenza A virus that causes flu in humans and animals. It contains certain proteins called hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N) on its surface, with this subtype specifically having H1 and N1 antigens. The H1N1 strain is well-known for causing the 2009 swine flu pandemic, which was a global outbreak of flu that resulted in significant morbidity and mortality. This subtype can also cause seasonal flu, although the severity and symptoms may vary. It is important to note that influenza viruses are constantly changing, and new strains or subtypes can emerge over time, requiring regular updates to vaccines to protect against them.

A pandemic is a global outbreak of a disease that spreads easily from person to person across a large region, such as multiple continents or worldwide. It is declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) when the spread of a disease poses a significant threat to the global population due to its severity and transmissibility.

Pandemics typically occur when a new strain of virus emerges that has not been previously seen in humans, for which there is little or no pre-existing immunity. This makes it difficult to control the spread of the disease, as people do not have natural protection against it. Examples of pandemics include the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic and the more recent COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

During a pandemic, healthcare systems can become overwhelmed, and there may be significant social and economic disruption as governments take measures to slow the spread of the disease, such as travel restrictions, quarantines, and lockdowns. Effective vaccines and treatments are critical in controlling the spread of pandemics and reducing their impact on public health.

In the field of medicine, "time factors" refer to the duration of symptoms or time elapsed since the onset of a medical condition, which can have significant implications for diagnosis and treatment. Understanding time factors is crucial in determining the progression of a disease, evaluating the effectiveness of treatments, and making critical decisions regarding patient care.

For example, in stroke management, "time is brain," meaning that rapid intervention within a specific time frame (usually within 4.5 hours) is essential to administering tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), a clot-busting drug that can minimize brain damage and improve patient outcomes. Similarly, in trauma care, the "golden hour" concept emphasizes the importance of providing definitive care within the first 60 minutes after injury to increase survival rates and reduce morbidity.

Time factors also play a role in monitoring the progression of chronic conditions like diabetes or heart disease, where regular follow-ups and assessments help determine appropriate treatment adjustments and prevent complications. In infectious diseases, time factors are crucial for initiating antibiotic therapy and identifying potential outbreaks to control their spread.

Overall, "time factors" encompass the significance of recognizing and acting promptly in various medical scenarios to optimize patient outcomes and provide effective care.

I'm sorry for any confusion, but "seasons" is not a term that has a medical definition. Seasons refer to the four divisions of the year (spring, summer, autumn or fall, and winter) based on the position of the earth in its orbit around the sun. If you have any questions related to health or medicine, I'd be happy to try to help answer those!

  • The basic reproduction number (R 0 ), pronounced "R naught," is intended to be an indicator of the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious and parasitic agents. (cdc.gov)
  • One is that its basic reproduction number, or R0 ("R naught"), is relatively high. (ieee.org)
  • One of these is called the 'basic reproduction number', otherwise known as the R naught, or R0. (abc.net.au)
  • Although dynamic, the basic reproduction number (R 0 /R naught) is an epidemiologic entity that helps predict the expected number of cases from exposure to a single case, assuming all the individuals in the given population are susceptible. (medscape.com)
  • Assuming proportionate mixing, it was shown that the basic reproduction number $R_0$ determining the epidemic threshold was proportional to $M+V/M$, where $M$ is the mean and $V$ the variance of the distribution. (aimsciences.org)
  • The higher the value of R0, the higher the risk of an epidemic or a pandemic since each individual can potentially infect a larger number of people with the risk of exponential growth. (transportgeography.org)
  • Considering the estimated R 0 for COVID-19, reducing the number of contacts within the population is a necessary step to control the epidemic. (jpmph.org)
  • A number of statistical methods can be used to estimate the \(R_0\) of an epidemic in its early stages from available data. (r-project.org)
  • The causative agent was identified very swiftly during the course of the epidemic, but epidemiological situations have dynamically changed over time: initially, many cases were considered to have been linked to an exposure at a seafood market in Wuhan, but a massive number of cases have started to emerge not only in Wuhan city but across different cities in China and also in other well connected countries. (mdpi.com)
  • In most communications about the coronavirus, the basic reproduction number R 0 is mentioned, which is related to the epidemic threshold. (tudelft.nl)
  • To predict epidemic trajectory, an important parameter is the basic reproduction number, R0, which describes the average number of infections transmitted from an individual. (sciencedaily.com)
  • So, at this stage of an epidemic, the number of immune people increases constantly, and so it should, now, be much higher than it was then. (21stcenturywire.com)
  • Some communities see early, large waves of infected individuals, while others see smaller numbers of infections over a longer period of time, and others may not appear to have an epidemic at all. (sciencebuddies.org)
  • Nishiura H, Chowell G, Safan M, Castillo-Chavez C. Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009. (who.int)
  • In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number, or basic reproductive number (sometimes called basic reproduction ratio or basic reproductive rate), denoted R 0 {\displaystyle R_{0}} (pronounced R nought or R zero), of an infection is the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection. (wikipedia.org)
  • We analyzed data from the absentee survey, conducted in elementary schools of Oita City, to evaluate the A/H1N1pdm pandemic and to estimate the basic reproductive number (R 0 ) of this novel strain. (opennursingjournal.com)
  • A pandemic happens when a disease spreads across many different countries or continents, impacting a large number of people. (healthline.com)
  • The virus can be spread fairly easily, including by people who are infected but display no symptoms, and as a result, we are in the middle of a global pandemic, with nearly all countries in the world reporting an increasing number of infected individuals. (sciencebuddies.org)
  • It is also concluded that the basic reproduction number (R0) will likely be higher than initially estimated, as many R0 estimates may have been based on under-estimates of numbers of infections. (researchgate.net)
  • The R0 refers to the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual, said Sanjaya Senanyake, an infectious diseases specialist from the Australian National University. (abc.net.au)
  • Numerical experiments from our model show that the control policies implemented in NYC reduced the number of infections by 72% (IQR 53-95), and the number of deceased cases by 76% (IQR 58-96) by the end of 2020, respectively. (medrxiv.org)
  • We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak. (nih.gov)
  • Based on a statistical analysis of 20 countries, it was found that countries that have tested more, relative to the number of deaths, have significantly lower CFR estimates. (researchgate.net)
  • Estimates of the incubation period, serial interval and reproduction number for COVID-19 were obtained and compared. (who.int)
  • Although reproduction number estimates ranged from 0.3 to 14.8, in 33 studies (63%), they fell between 2 and 3. (who.int)
  • The calculated incubation period was similar over the study period and in different settings, whereas estimates of the serial interval and effective reproduction number were setting-specific. (who.int)
  • Estimates of the effective reproduction number varied with the setting and the underlying model assumptions. (who.int)
  • Quantifying TB transmission: a systematic review of reproduction number and serial interval estimates for tuberculosis. (who.int)
  • Dietz states that R 0 is "the number of secondary cases one case would produce in a completely susceptible population" ( 19 ). (cdc.gov)
  • The basic reproduction number of a contagious disease, known as R0, is the number of people per infected individual that will be generated throughout its infectious period in a susceptible population. (transportgeography.org)
  • Because of the high infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 among the susceptible population, the calculation of the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) is essential for implementing prevention measures [ 1 ]. (jpmph.org)
  • denote the number of the individuals susceptible to the disease, of infected members and of members who have been removed from the population, respectively. (scirp.org)
  • Although less prominent from a physics point of view, the basic reproduction number is easier to understand as the average number of susceptible neighbours in the contact network that a typical infected node can infect. (tudelft.nl)
  • The rapid screening for antibody levels in the healthy population, such as health care workers, is important for quickly assessing the number of susceptible individuals when a measles outbreak occurs. (gla.ac.uk)
  • The basic reproduction number (R 0 ), also called the basic reproduction ratio or rate or the basic reproductive rate, is an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious agents. (cdc.gov)
  • [2] Her dissertation ended in policy recommendations for those working in public health to improve access to infection case data, so that forecasters can better characterize disease transmission, and to think about the basic reproduction number of an infectious disease as a mean of a random variable. (wikipedia.org)
  • Measles is perhaps the most contagious infectious viral disease, with a basic reproduction number (R 0 ) estimated at between 12 and 18. (gla.ac.uk)
  • The goal of this dissertation is to estimate the precise asymptotics for the number of geometric equivalence classes of Morse functions on the 2-sphere. (fau.edu)
  • From the estimated numbers of symptomatic cases, we estimated that the critical proportions of the population that should be vaccinated were 15%, 4% and 10% respectively. (who.int)
  • Running the model for the different values of R0, we quantified the number of symptomatic clinical cases, the clinical attack rates, the symptomatic clinical attack rates and the number of deaths. (who.int)
  • Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio: The number of symptomatic individuals who die of the disease among al individuals experiencing symptoms from the infection. (cdc.gov)
  • This parameter is not necessarily equivalent to the number of reported deaths per reported cases, because many cases and deaths are never confirmed to be COVID-19, and there is a lag in time between when people are infected and when they die. (cdc.gov)
  • Fine supplements this definition with the description "average number of secondary cases" ( 17 ). (cdc.gov)
  • This index presents the average number of new cases generated by an infected person [ 11 , 12 ]. (jpmph.org)
  • is the daily contact rate, i.e., the average number of contacts per infective per day. (scirp.org)
  • Contact tracing is a proven strategy for reducing the basic reproduction number (R) of a virus, indicating how many new cases one infected person generates on average. (accenture.com)
  • Disease modeling uses the differential equation called the basic reproduction number, or R nought , ( R 0 = x ) to represent the average spread of an infection. (pitt.edu)
  • The average number of people that one person with COVID-19 is likely to infect in a population without any immunity (from previous infection) or any interventions. (cdc.gov)
  • 13. work with the densities of states and average number density for ideal sparse gases and ideal fermion and boson gases, respectively. (lu.se)
  • This number then dramatically increased, with the number of confirmed cases in China reaching 66 580 by February 15, 2020, with 1524 deaths [ 8 ]. (jpmph.org)
  • Using Colombia as a case study, we estimated that the number of infected people would reach 506 000 (95% credible interval (CrI) = 395 000-648 000) in 2020 with a 1.0% (95%CrI = 0.8-1.3%) prevalence in the general population and 2400 (95%CrI = 1900-3400) deaths (approx. (imperial.ac.uk)
  • Note that this operator (matrix) is responsible for the number of infected people, not all the compartments. (wikipedia.org)
  • Key conclusions are that the underlying Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for COVID-19 will likely be at the lower end of the analysed range (i.e. 0.25%, not 10.1%), and that far more people are likely to have been infected than officially reported numbers of cases suggest: 26 million globally by 9 April 2020, not 1.4 million. (researchgate.net)
  • Infection and recovery rate fluctuations lead to lognormal probability distribution of the number of infected people, similar in its analytical form to price distributions for financial assets. (sciencedaily.com)
  • The overall goal of the course is that after completing the course, the students must have acquired knowledge and skills in basic statistical physics and quantum statistics. (lu.se)
  • The course covers basic statistical physics and quantum physics, with a focus on systems in equilibrium states. (lu.se)
  • 16. use error reproduction and statistical analysis on measured data from laboratory exercises during the course. (lu.se)
  • From the numerical simulation results, we notice a basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], confirming a substantial increase of incidence cases if no form of intervention takes place in the community. (ebi.ac.uk)
  • Research needs concerning psychological disturbances center on basic studies and intervention studies to evaluate the effects of psychosocial job enhancement in terms of psychological well being. (cdc.gov)
  • Diekmann and colleagues use the description "expected number of secondary cases" and provide additional specificity to the terminology regarding a single case ( 13 ). (cdc.gov)
  • I got my undergraduate and doctoral education at Lund University and defended my PhD thesis "Reproduction and competition in the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus " 1988, with Jan Löfqvist as supervisor. (lu.se)
  • Using state-level calibrated models, we estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) and herd immunity threshold for PWID in each state. (cdc.gov)
  • This initial example assumes uniform mixing, i.e., that all individuals in the population have a similar number of social contacts. (r-project.org)
  • We use a branching process transmission model fitted to empirical sexual partnership data in the UK to show that the heavy-tailed nature of the sexual partnership degree distribution, where a small fraction of individuals have disproportionately large numbers of partners, can explain the sustained growth of monkeypox cases among the MSM population despite the absence of such patterns of spread in past outbreaks. (medrxiv.org)
  • With the addition of control strategies, the number of true information spreaders increases, while the number of rumor spreaders decreases. (hindawi.com)
  • We also suggest that the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) for monkeypox over the MSM sexual contact network may be substantially greater than 1 for a plausible range of assumptions, which poses a challenge to outbreak containment efforts. (medrxiv.org)
  • Effective reproduction numbers are commonly overestimated early in a disease outbreak. (who.int)
  • by UNDP/UNFPA/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction. (who.int)
  • R 0 {\displaystyle R_{0}} is a dimensionless number (persons infected per person infecting) and not a time rate, which would have units of time−1, or units of time like doubling time. (wikipedia.org)
  • The basic reproduction number is not necessarily the same as the effective reproduction number R {\displaystyle R} (usually written R t {\displaystyle R_{t}} [t for time], sometimes R e {\displaystyle R_{e}} ), which is the number of cases generated in the current state of a population, which does not have to be the uninfected state. (wikipedia.org)
  • It shows the difference in the number of active cases with and without mitigation strategies, like social distancing. (edu.au)
  • Strategies were presented for the prevention of disorders of reproduction, neurotoxic disorders, noise induced hearing loss, dermatological conditions, and psychological disorders brought on by exposures to hazardous working conditions. (cdc.gov)
  • Susceptibility to infection is well known to vary due to a number of factors, including age, prior exposure to the pathogen, or immunisation due to a vaccination campaign. (r-project.org)
  • An accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) of COVID-19 would be beneficial for prevention programs. (jpmph.org)
  • Ensuring ongoing support and tailored public health messaging to facilitate prevention and early detection among MSM with a large number of sexual partners is warranted. (medrxiv.org)
  • Articles were searched using the following keywords: "COVID-19" and "basic reproduction number" or " R 0 . (jpmph.org)
  • Editors select a small number of articles recently published in the journal that they believe will be particularly interesting to readers, or important in the respective research area. (mdpi.com)
  • It has been recently used as a preprocessing step for new model order reduction methods, so it is important to keep the number of new variables small. (siam.org)
  • Fifty-two studies estimated the reproduction number. (who.int)
  • Current studies have shown that the number of mild and asymptomatic cases may be even greater. (bvsalud.org)
  • The topological complexity is a homotopy invariant that can be thought of as the minimum number of continuous instructions required to describe the movement of the robots between any initial configuration to any final one without collisions. (siam.org)
  • That also was a test that was skewed to rather have false negative, than false positive tests, so the actual number, probably, was higher than that, and it was a couple of days ago. (21stcenturywire.com)
  • School closure policy may not work as effectively as one might expect in terms of reducing the number of deceased cases. (medrxiv.org)
  • Through some rigorous analyses, an explicit formula for the basic reproduction number of the model is calculated, and some results about stability and instability of equilibria for the model are established. (hindawi.com)
  • COVID-19 has stood out with a high impact on public health due to the high number of cases with infection in a short period of time. (bvsalud.org)
  • Therefore, the choice of the anticoagulant and coagulant, rotation force and number of centrifugations, time elapsed between the sample activation and its clinical use, and the method of blood collection are some factors affecting PRP biological effect 6,7,20 . (bvsalud.org)
  • Basic infection control for health care providers / Mike Kennamer. (who.int)
  • This license permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. (opennursingjournal.com)

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